March Madness First Round Predictions and Analysis-East
EAST REGION FIRST ROUND
#16 NORFOLK STATE vs. #1 BAYLOR - David Hess
The Norfolk State Spartans got here by winning the MEAC tournament and they do have a tough draw against top seed Baylor in the East. Still, the Spartans have won six games in a row and they will be facing a Baylor team that is a bit wounded right now. Baylor will be without LJ Cryer for this game, who is their leading scorer at 13.5 ppg and Kendall Brown (10.1 ppg) is listed as questionable. Baylor has averaged 76.8 ppg on the year but just 70.0 ppg (Regulation) in their last five and they will be taking on a team that finished 2nd in the nation in defensive FG% and 40th in points allowed at 63.9 ppg. I see the Spartans keeping this one closer than Baylor would like. Prediction: Norfolk State +20.5
#8 NORTH CAROLINA vs. #9 MARQUETTE - David Hess
The Marquette Golden Eagles had a solid season in the Big East Conference overall, but they don’t come in with a lot of momentum, having lost six of their last 10 games. The defense let them down late in the season as the Golden Eagles allowed 76.5 ppg over their last eight games and now they have to face one of the better offenses in the nation. North Carolina was surprised by Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament, but they had won their previous six games, which included a road win over Duke. The Heels are 28th in the nation in scoring at 76.8 ppg and their defense played better down the stretch, allowing just 66.1 ppg over their last seven games in regulation. The Heels are better at both ends of the floor right now and they will move on with a win of at least seven points. Prediction: North Carolina -3
#13 AKRON vs. #4 UCLA - David Hess
The Akron Zips had a strong season in the MAC this year and they won the Conference tournament by 20 points over Kent State. The Zips come in with plenty of momentum as they have won their last eight games in a row, but they will be facing a UCLA team that made it to the finals of the PAC-12 tournament, before losing to Arizona, who is the top-seed in the South. The Bruins have won eight of their last 10 games, but they do not have the look of a powerhouse team. Akron is a defensive-minded team and they have allowed just 62.5 ppg over their last eight games. The defense of the Zips will be enough to keep this one from getting out of hand. Prediction: Akron +13.5
#11 VIRGINIA TECH vs. #6 TEXAS - David Hess
I am very excited about this one as it should be a great game. The Virginia Tech Hokies went from 0-4 at the start of league play to winning the ACC tournament, so they are coming in with a ton of momentum. They have won 13 of their last 15 games and held Duke and Carolina to 59 & 67 points respectively in their last two games. The Longhorns are heading the opposite direction right now as they have lost their last three games in a row and the offense has been sputtering, posting just 59.3 ppg in regulation over that three-game stretch. Texas should have a hard time getting their offense going in this one. The Longhorns' defense is 9th in the nation in points allowed, but they will be facing a hot Virginia Tech offense that has averaged 76.8 ppg (regulation) over their last four games. The Hokies are also 6th in the nation in three-point shooting. Texas will not score enough to win this one as Tech rides the mo[1]mentum game from winning the ACC tournament into the round of 32. Prediction: Virginia Tech +1
#14 YALE vs. #3 PURDUE - David Hess
Purdue made it to the finals of the Big 10 tournament, before falling to Iowa while Yale won the Ivy League tournament by beating top-seed Princeton in the finals. The Bulldogs went 19-11 on the year overall and they were just 6-10 combined against quad 1, 2, & 3 teams, plus we note that they have been outscored by 23.3 ppg in their four games against teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Purdue finished 3rd in the Big 10 regular season standings and they were 14-7 against quad 1 & 2 teams. According to KenPom, the defenses are fairly even as Purdue is 100th in defensive efficiency while Yale is 103rd, but Purdue has a massive edge on offense as they are 3rd in offensive efficiency, while Yale is 203rd. This about this, Purdue is 3rd against a set of defenses that were 61st in the nation in efficiency while the Bulldogs faced the 249th set of defenses. Purdue will roll in this one. Prediction: Purdue -16
#10 SAN FRANCISCO vs. #7 MURRAY ST. - David Hess
The San Francisco Dons had to wait until the final two games were announced to find out that they were in the tournament. This is a team that was squarely on the bubble, despite having a 24-9 record overall. San Fran had nine combined quad 1 & 2 wins and they faced the 79th rated schedule, according to KenPom and it was their strength of schedule that got them in. Murray State went a powerful 30-2 on the year, which included a 5-1 mark against quad 1 & 2 teams. I understand that the Racers have faced the 235th rated schedule in the nation, but they have won their last 20 games in a row and are playing with a ton of confidence at the moment. Both teams have very strong offenses but the Racers have a solid edge on defense as they are 21st in points allowed while the Dons are 103rd. I like the Racers to get the job done in this one and it will be the defense that leads them to the win. Prediction: Murray State +2
#15 ST PETER’S vs. #2 KENTUCKY - David Hess
This game has contrasting styles as the Wildcats will run all game long while the Peacocks will look to slow the pace. That will make for an interesting game and the question here is, can the Peacocks score enough to keep the game close? St Peter’s does have the 24th ranked scoring defense in the nation but they also faced just the 234th set of offenses in the land. KenPom has Kentucky at 4th in offensive efficiency and they have faced the 17th rated set of defenses. The Cats can score on anyone and they will do so here. Kentucky has averaged 80.1 ppg on the year while St Peter’s has put up just 66.9 ppg and the Wildcats are also strong on defense, ranking 76th in points allowed, giving up just 65.7 ppg. That means the answer to my question above is, no the Peacocks will not score enough to keep this one close. Prediction: Kentucky -17
#5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 Indiana - Adam Rauzino
The Indiana Hoosiers have a big step up in competition against the Saint Mary’s Gaels in this game. The Hoosiers defense propelled them to victory against Wyoming on Tuesday but they will need a better offensive performance in this one after going 2 for 13 from three-point land on Tuesday night. Saint Mary’s is an outstanding team that defeated Notre Dame, San Diego State, and Gonzaga.
Furthermore, the Hoosiers are going to have trouble generating offense against the Gaels' defense. Indy struggles against strong defensive teams and the Gaels are limiting foes to only 90.1 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 9th in DI in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hoosiers are allowing 92.2 points per 100 possessions. Also, the Gaels have a better adjusted offensive rating than Indiana and also have more three-point threats.Prediction: Saint Mary's Gaels -3