Nashville SC vs. New England Revolution Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/8/21

Two unbeaten Eastern Conference foes will face off on Saturday afternoon when the New England Revolution visits Nashville SC at Nissan Stadium. New England is currently tied for the best record in MLS at 2-1-0 following a 2-1 home win over Atlanta United last Saturday to hit as a -114 favorite. All three Nashville matches this year have ended in draws, including a scoreless tie last week at home against Inter Miami with the draw cashing at -120.

These teams met twice last year, Nashville’s inaugural season in MLS, with both matches finishing in draws.

Gil leads Revolution to another impressive win

After a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, New England has kept the momentum going with seven points in three games so far this year to match the Seattle Sounders for the best record in MLS. Brandon Bye opened the scoring in the 19th minute for the Revolution before Atlanta tied it up just before half on a penalty kick, only for Carlos Gil to return the favor from the spot eight minutes into the second.

New England outshot Atlanta 14-11 with six of those coming on target, and had plenty of dangerous chances all night with seven corner kicks. It still wasn’t easy to hold on over the final half hour, as Atlanta had 56% of the ball, but the Revolution only allowed four shots on target.

The Revolution have been sound on both sides of the ball during their fast start, racking up 1.67 goals per game on 11 shots per game. Opponents are managing just one goal per game on an average of 13 shots, as Matt Turner has played well in net. Despite the strong defensive effort, two of New England’s three games have gone over the betting total.

Adam Buksa and Gustavo Bou have also found the back of the net for the Revolution so far, and they benefited from an own goal in a 1-0 win over D.C. United two weeks ago. Gil has been a force for New England, adding two assists and leading the team in expected goals.

Bou was unable to play against Atlanta with what head coach Bruce Arena said is a minor injury, and he should be available this weekend after returning to practice on Monday. Bench midfielder Luis Caicedo is dealing with a lower-body injury and is questionable.

Another week, another draw for Nashville

Nashville is sitting on three points through three matches after last weekend’s scoreless draw against Inter Miami, already the fifth 0-0 game in the franchise’s young history. Neither team managed to create many dangerous chances as they combined for just five shots on target, with the big moment of the match coming in the 70th minute when Nashville’s Walker Zimmerman committed a foul on a breakaway goal scoring chance, as he was fortunate to not receive a red.

The run of play was largely carried by Nashville, which had 60% possession and outshot Inter Miami 10-5. Goaltender Joe Willis kept the clean sheet, his third in 20 starts with Nashville.

As the first two matches ended in 2-2 draws, Nashville is averaging 1.33 goals per game on a whopping 20 shots per game, as it racked up 32 attempts in the season opener against FC Cincinnati. Nashville is allowing the same number of goals on 6.66 shots faced per game. The first two games of the season went over the betting total for Nashville before last week’s scoreless battle.

Jhnnder Cadiz leads Nashville with two goals and has been Nashville’s most productive player by far according to expected goals and assists metrics. Randall Leal has added a goal and two assists, with Hany Mukhtar tallying Nashville’s other goal.

Nashville is missing a few depth pieces at forward, as Abu Danladi (hamstring), Daniel Rios (foot) and Dominique Badji (abductor) were all out last weekend with no timetable to return.

Side: New England +175

It’s becoming clear that New England’s deep playoff run last season was no fluke, as the Revolution have collected seven points from three games with strong play on both sides of the ball. Nashville is not a bad side, but has been unable to get a win yet against a fairly soft schedule, and this will be its toughest test of the year so far against a hot opponent.

While the offensive stats for Nashville look strong overall, much of that damage came against FC Cincinnati, the worst team in MLS, and CF Montreal, which has a very shaky defense. Last week’s scoreless draw was more like the Nashville team we saw last year, and generating no real dangerous chances against a middling Inter Miami team that was missing its best player is not a great sign.

Gil completely took over the game for the Revolution last weekend from the attacking midfielder spot, and that kind of creative playmaking is something Nashville lacks. At these plus odds, it’s worth a shot to see if New England can keep up a hot streak that dates back to the start of last postseason.

Total: Under 2.5 (-118)

Nashville made the playoffs last season as an expansion team thanks to a strong effort on the defensive end, as it was one of just three teams in MLS to average under one goal allowed per game, so expect more games like last weekend’s rock fight against Inter Miami. The team simply wasn’t ready to play in the opener against Cincinnati as it conceded twice in the first 12 minutes before playing lockdown defense the rest of the match, and a lot of squads are going to get in shootouts with Montreal’s high-powered offense this season.

Opponents are struggling to generate many shots on target against New England, and after Chicago scored twice in the first 11 minutes of the season opener, the Revolution’s only goal allowed came on a penalty shot. The Revolution have a great chance to keep a clean sheet here, but it won’t be easy to break through against the sound Nashville defense.