NBA Recap: Southeast Division

According to various media reports, the NBA will return at some point during the summer. Nobody really knows when at this point, but when it does, that could mean no fans in the stands. Most teams have played about 3/4 of their season, so they basically know if they are going to postseason or not. Some teams have played as many as 67 games (Dallas and Atlanta), who have just 15 games left. We're going to take a look at the way the league was before it was halted on March 11, after Utah center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19. We'll analyze each team by division in the NBA and list them in order of their SU record. But we're also going to look at some of the handicapping stats, trends and angles, because once the NBA returns, you'll need a refresher course on how each team has fared overall after the stoppage is over.

Southeast Division:

1)Miami Heat

Record: 41-24 SU, 33-30-2 ATS, 39-25-1 O/U, 28-10 Eastern Conference.

Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (35-1), East Finals (12-1)

Eastern Conference Ranking: 4th (2 games ahead of Indiana and Philadelphia; 2.5 games behind Boston)

Recap:

The Heat have had a strong season thus far, finishing on a 6-2 run before the hiatus. The addition of Jimmy Butler has been huge in terms of leadership, defense, toughness and mid-range shooting. Butler is averaging 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He's an old school forward, who gets to free throw line (408 for 490), ranking fifth in the league with 9.0 attempts per game. The only issue is that Butler at 30 is becoming injury-prone. He's missed 11 games this season, after playing 10 with Minnesota last season. He hasn't played over 59 games in four seasons and has only played more than 67 just twice in 10 seasons.

This is a difficult team to assess because they don't really have a superstar. Butler is good, but his lack of three-point shooting (25%) limits him. But they have plenty of three-point shooters surrounding him as Miami ranks first in the NBA with 38.3% from long range. It starts with Duncan Robinson, a 26-year old journeyman, who found his niche with the Heat, shooting 44.8% from the three-point line. In fact, that's all he basically does, taking 543 three-pointers of his 613 field goal attempts. Robinson averages 13.3 points, while rookie Tyler Herro adds 129 points on 39.1% three-point shooting. Herro has also been hampered with injuries, having played 47 of 65 games. Goran Dragic (16.1ppg, 5.1apg) has been a fixture with the Heat for five straight seasons. At 33, he's slowing down and is playing around 27 minutes per game. He doesn't have to be the team's main ballhandler, because rookie Kendrick Nunn has stepped up, averaging 15.6 points and 3.4 assists on 36.2% three-point shooting.

Miami has a ton of depth, but they don't have a lot of size. Center Bam Adebayo (6-9, 255) does all the dirty work for the team and is one of the league's most improved players. Adebayo nearly doubled his scoring average (16.2ppg), adds 5.1 assists, 85 blocks and 3.2 more rebounds per game (10.2) this season. The rebounding is not a surprise, but the assists make him just another asset on this team. In Miami's game, he scored 21 points, dished out 10 assists and grabbed seven boards in the Heat's 109-98 loss to Charlotte at home.

Key injuries: Most of Miami's injuries are minor.

Strengths: Homecourt advantage (27-5). Depth. This is a very deep team. Jae Crowder and newly-acquired Andre Iguodala all have plenty of playoff experience. Defense. They rank seventh in the league in field goal percentage defense (44.7%) and ninth in three-point defense (34.6%).

Weaknesses: Not a lot of size after Adebayo. If they finish fourth, they'll be facing bigger squads in Indiana or Philadelphia in the playoffs. After Butler, who is the go-to guy?

Gambling Outlook: Gotta love Coach Spo (Erik Spoelstra), who knows how to win in the playoffs. This is an excellent passing team, but I'm not sure I trust Robinson, Nunn and Herro, who are all essentially rookies to carry this team in the playoffs. They need that star to carry them through and while Butler is very good, he's not a great number one option.

2)Orlando Magic

Record: 30-35 SU, 31-32-2 ATS, 33-29-3 O/U, 19-18 Eastern Conference.

Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (1500-1), East Finals (750-1)

Eastern Conference Ranking: 8th (5.5 games ahead of Washington, a 1/2 game behind No. 7 Brooklyn)

Recap:

The good news for Orlando is that they are playing in the Eastern Conference. If they were in the West, they would rank ninth, though their record would be a lot worse. Orlando is a fairly dull team, despite having some talent. They rank 27th in points per game (106.4ppg), 27th in field goal percentage (44.2%) and 25th in three-point percentage (34.1%). So they are not a very explosive team. They are also stuck in mediocrity and cap hell. That's never a good thing to be in, especially when you have no stars on your team. They are over the cap and have some decisions to make regarding extending Markelle Fultz. The former number one pick was added from Philadelphia in the offseason and has made strides this season, averaging 12.1 points and 5.2 assists on 25.4% three-point shooting (47.3% FG). In his last four games, he's averaged 17.5 points and 5.5 assists. If he could ever make three-point shots consistently, he'd be very good. He's just 21 so the sky could be the limit, with his size and athleticism at the point guard position.

Orlando's best player is a big man and that's not a great thing in today's game. Nikola Vucevic (6-11, 260) is having a big season with 19.5 points and 11.0 rebounds with 3.7 assists per game. Vucevic is not a dominant player by any means, but he's consistent, hits the glass well and even can make a three-pointer (32.9%, 82-249). He just doesn't have a lot of help. Aaron Gordon (14.4ppg, 7.6rpg) is one of the league's best dunkers, but shoots just 30.1% from beyond the arc and 43.3% from the field. Shooting guards Evan Fournier (18.8ppg, 40.6% 3pt) and Terrence Ross (14.8ppg, 35.7% 3pt) are good players, but not difference-makers. One very intriguing player was Jonathan Isaac (6-11, 230), who averaged 12 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 32 games before suffering a knee injury that forced him to miss the regular season. However, with the long hiatus, could Isaac return? He and Fultz appear to be the future of the franchise.

Key injuries: Jonathan Isaac (knee) could miss the entire season. Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) is questionable for a return this season.

Strengths: Orlando has a steady paint presence in Vucevic. Fournier is a very good shooter and Fultz is becoming a very good player.

Weaknesses: The Magic should make the playoffs, but who really wants to face Milwaukee in the first round. They don't defend the three-point shot well (24th) and lack offensive explosion. The bench is pretty mundane other than D.J. Augustin (10.4ppg).

Gambling Outlook: As long as Orlando is in the playoff picture, they will try to win games down the stretch, because who wants to face Milwaukee in the first round? But if there is a regular season, the Magic are playing their best basketball and they've gone over 12 straight games (despite lacking dynamic offensive players) and had covered eight of their last nine. Whether that continues after a long hiatus is tough to say, but it's worth noting.

3)Washington Wizards:

Record: 24-40 SU, 32-30-2 ATS, 37-26-1 O/U, 17-23 Eastern Conference.

Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (5000-1), East Finals (2500-1)

Eastern Conference Ranking: 9th (5.5 games behind Orlando)

Recap:

It's been a lost season for Washington and that started last February when John Wall ruptured his Achilles' tendon. The Wizards did not do much in free agency because frankly they were up against the cap. So this season has been Brad Beal (30.5ppg, 6.1apg, 35.3% 3pt) and a bunch of guys. The biggest issue for Washington in this rebuilding/tank year is to find out who fits the future and which players don't. One player who could fit that is forward Davis Bertans (6-10, 225), the prototype stretch-four, who is averaging 15.4 points and just 4.5 rebounds on 42.4% three-point shooting. Bertans will be a free agent next season so the Wiz have to make a decision on whether to give him a big deal.

Rookie forward Rui Hachimura, who has missed 23 games due to injuries, has shown some potential with 13.4 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. His defense and rebounding could use work, but you could say that about every other player on this team including 6-10 center Thomas Bryant. The Wiz gave him a three-year, $25 million contract in the offseason. He's shown some flashes, averaging 12.1 points and 6.8 rebounds (59.9% FG, 40.7 3pt), but has missed 26 games due to injuries and has struggled defensively.

Without Wall, Washington had hoped that Isaiah Thomas would be the short-term answer. He did average 12.2 points and shot the ball well (41.3% 3pt), but was a disaster defensively. Now they are going with perennial backups in Shabazz Napier (12ppg, 4.4apg) and Ish Smith (10.5ppg, 4.8apg). The Wiz rank 29th in points allowed (119.7ppg), 29th in field goal percentage defense (49%) and 28th in three-point defense (37.8%). Offense hasn't been that bad as they rank third in three-point percentage (37.2%) and 6th in points per game (115.6ppg)

Key injuries: John Wall (Achilles) is out.

Strengths: They play with pretty good pace and have some solid three-point shooters including Bertans, Bryant, and Napier (38.1%). Beal is having a big season and is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not making the All-Star team.

Weaknesses: Defense is abysmal. Rebounding is awful. They rank last in rebounding percentage and tied for 28th in defensive rebounding percentage. Future? Wall being back will help but Hachimura, Troy Brown Jr., Isaac Bonga and Bryant don't appear to be game-changers. They could use one in the draft and it looks as though they will get a top-10 pick. Point guard play is pretty weak.

Gambling Outlook: Washington is a scrappy team that is playing a bit better since they gave up on "IT" and added Napier and Jerome Robinson. But they are still bad. The question is whether they keep pushing for the last playoff spot and finally give Beal some rest and begin to tank. Despite being an over team, they've gone under in three of their last four games.

4)Charlotte Hornets

Record: 23-42 SU, 34-30-1 ATS, 31-34 O/U, 16-24 Eastern Conference.

Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (9999-1), East Finals (5000-1)

Eastern Conference Ranking: 10th (1.5 games behind Washington, 7 games behind 8th place Orlando)

Recap:

Future. When you discuss these bottom-feeder teams, you wonder if they have a plan for the future. If you continue to finish near the bottom of the league, you need to draft well. The Hornets have a bevy of small point guards/combo guards highlighted by Terry Rozier (6-1, 190), the former backup guard for Boston. Rozier has played well as a first-time regular, averaging 18 points and 4.1 assists on 42.3% shooting (40.7% 3pt). Devonte' Graham (6-1, 195) was a second-round pick by Atlanta in the 2018 draft out of Kansas, but was dealt to Charlotte for two second-round picks. Graham averaged just 4.7 points per game in his first year and now is averaging 18.2 points and 7.5 assists. Before we start celebrating Graham as the league's next great young point guard, he is 25-years old and is shooting just 38.2% from the field (37.3% 3pt). He also has committed 181 turnovers in 63 games. But is he the present and future of this team along with small forward Miles Bridges (6-6, 225), who was drafted as the 12th overall selection in the NBA Draft in 2018 by the LA Clippers, before being traded to the Hornets. Bridges is averaging 13 points and 5.6 rebounds on 42.4% shooting (33% 3pt). Graham, Bridges and rookie P.J. Washington (12.2ppg, 5.4rpg, 37.4% 3pt) all have shown flashes of potential this season.

The Hornets lack a quality big man. Bismack Biyombo (7.4ppg, 5.8rpg) is now a 27-year old journeyman and 7-foot Cody Zeller (11.1ppg, 7.1rpg) is not a player you build your team around. Rozier is not a star and neither is Graham and Bridges. But all are good players. The problem is drafting and when you miss, you in trouble. Malik Monk (6-3, 200) could be that miss as he has struggled, averaging 10.3 points and is shooting just 28.4% from beyond the arc in 55 games. Then he was suspended indefinitely for a violation of the NBA's substance abuse policy.

Offense has been an issue all season long. Charlotte ranks 30th in scoring (102.9ppg), in field goal percentage (43.4%) and 20th in three-point field goal percentage (35.2%). They are not good enough defensively to overcome their lack of offense.

Key injuries: Malik Monk (suspension) is out indefinitely.

Strengths: The Hornets played pretty well down the stretch before the hiatus, beating Miami by 11, beating Houston by nine. Rozier has lifted his game to another level. They allow just 35.2% three-point shooting (13th).

Weaknesses: No real post scoring so they depend on their guard play, which is good, but not great. They are a poor rebounding team, ranking 26th in rebounding percentage and last in defensive rebounding percentage.

Gambling Outlook: Charlotte probably won't tank because they don't have a lot of veterans. They still won't make the playoffs, but they will play hard. They've covered seven of their last eight games and the lone non-win was a push. It shows you that they were playing hard and a lot of that came with Monk being suspended. Maybe he was addition by subtraction.

5)Atlanta Hawks:

Record: 20-47 SU, 29-36-2 ATS, 40-27 O/U, 11-32 Eastern Conference (6-27 road)

Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (n/a), East Finals (n/a)

Eastern Conference Ranking: 14th (11 games out of 8th place)

Recap:

Like Washington, Atlanta has become a one-man team. That usually works out great for the player, but not so great for the rest of the team and the record, unless his name is LeBron James. Young is not 6-8, 270, but is having a banner season with 29.6 points per game, 9.3 rebounds on 43.7% shooting (36.1%). The good news is that Young does have some help now that the Hawks deal for Clint Capela (6-10, 240) from Houston in a four-team trade where the Hawks gave up their first-round pick (via Brooklyn). Capela (13.9ppg, 62.9% FG, 52.9% FT, 13.8rpg. 1.8bpg) is a talented defender and pick-and-roll scorer, who has not played with Atlanta yet due to a heel injury.

The interesting thing will be whether Capela can play with 6-9, 235-pound power forward John Collins. The 22-year old has an abundance of talent, but he missed 25 games earlier in the season due to a violation of the NBA's Anti-Drug program after testing positive for growth hormone. Collins (21.6ppg, 10.1rpg, 40.1 3pt, 58.3 FG) returned on Dec. 23, but had an up-down season until after the All-Star break. He's scored 22 or more points nine of his last 10 games.

Unlike some of the other downtrodden NBA teams, Atlanta has a future. Second-year wing Kevin Huerter (12.2ppg, 3.8apg, 38% 3pt) and rookie F De'Andre Hunter (12.3ppg, 41% FG, 35.5% 3pt) are probably not going to be stars, but they have shown potential to be solid starters. Rookie forward Cam Reddish (6-8, 218) has star potential or shall we say "boom or bust". He scored 28 points in the Hawks' 118-112 loss at Washington on March 6, but also had seven turnovers. He's the most inconsistent player on the team, but the talent is there. He's averaging 10.5 points on 38.4% (33.2% 3pt) shooting. In the last 9 games, he's averaging 16.4 points. Even though there's youth, there are also veterans like Vince Carter and Jeff Teague, who doesn't really fit their future plans.

Defensively, Atlanta is a mess as they allow 119.7 points per game (30th) on 47.8% shooting (26th) and 36.3% 3-point shooting (21st). Offensively, they have the worst three-point shooting team in the league (33.3%) and they struggle on the boards (28th in rebounding percentage).

Key injuries: Clint Capela (heel) is questionable.

Strengths: Trae Young and the future. Young could be even better with Capela running the pick-and-roll. Capela will also help some of his defensive problems. They do have a fourth-round pick so they should continue to improve.

Weaknesses: Defense is usually going to be an issue when you have so many young players and few are into defense. Hunter at least has that background from his days in Virginia. They need better three-point shooters and more creative offensive players.

Gambling Outlook:

If Capela was back, their chances would be pretty good down the stretch. But do they really want to win games to potentially hurt their chances of getting a top-five pick? This is not a strong draft on paper, so winning games instead of just playing your young players might be the move. But they also might want to see how Capela fits with the younger players.