New England Revolution vs. Philadelphia Union Prediction. Preview and Odds - 8/8/21
Two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference will clash on Sunday evening when the Philadelphia Union visit the New England Revolution at Gillette Stadium. Philadelphia is coming off a comfortable 3-0 home win on Wednesday night over Toronto FC as a -160 favorite to move into third place in the East at 7-7-4. New England currently has the best record in MLS at 11-4-3 after battling Nashville SC to scoreless home draw on Wednesday, with the tie hitting at +270 odds.
These teams drew 1-1 in Philadelphia back on May 12, bringing the all-time series record to 18-7-7 in favor of the Union.
Union dominate first half in win over Toronto
It’s been a tough stretch for a normally strong Philadelphia team, but it snapped a three-match winless streak by blowing out Toronto 3-0 on Wednesday to move back into the top three in the East. All three Philadelphia goals came before the halftime break, as Jakob Glesnes opened the scoring in the 12th on a header before Daniel Gazdag converted from the penalty spot in the 33rd for his first goal with the Union and Sergio Santos added another three minutes later.
The scoreline could have been even worse as Philadelphia had a number of great chances throughout the game and outshot Toronto 17-6 overall despite possession being nearly even. Andre Blake only had to make one save to keep the clean sheet, while Gazdag and José Martínez recorded one assist apiece.
That was a strong showing from a Union offense that has been shaky at times with an average of 1.33 goals and 12.77 shots per game. Philadelphia’s defense is one of the strongest in MLS, with opponents averaging 0.94 goals on 11.61 shots per match, and the Union have now kept seven clean sheets.
Kacper Przybylko has been Philadelphia’s most productive player with a team-high six goals while dishing out two assists. Cory Buke and Sergio Santos Gomes have each scored four goals, while Jamiro Monteiro has a club-high four assists.
Midfielder Jack de Vries has missed the entire season dealing with concussion symptoms, while Anthony Fontana has been sidelined recently by the same ailment.
Shorthanded New England grabs a point for fifth straight result
The Revolution were dealt a huge blow earlier this week when it was announced MVP frontrunner Carles Gil will miss several weeks with a sports hernia, but they were still able to remain in the Supporters’ Shield lead with a draw against Nashville on Wednesday. Tajon Buchanan and Gustavo Bou each had a good chance right before halftime only to be stopped by Nashville goaltender Joe Willis and New England had a penalty decision overturned in the 65th for the only real highlight of the second half.
New England had the better of the play with 69% possession and 12 total shots to Nashville’s seven, including six on target. Matt Turner, who just lead the USA to a victory over Mexico in the Gold Cup Final with a terrific performance last weekend, made two saves to preserve the draw.
That certainly wasn’t the best we’ve seen from a Revolution offense that has piled up the most goals in the East at 1.83 per game while recording 14.27 shots per match. While not quite on that elite level, New England’s defense has been good enough, allowing 1.17 goals and 13.55 goals per match while keeping six clean sheets.
Bou is one of MLS’ top scorers with 10 goals and three assists to lead the New England offense. Adam Buksa is also having a strong campaign with eight goals, while Arnor-Ingvi-Traustason has added two goals and three assists.
Gil has been fantastic with two goals and an MLS-high nine assists, so his absence will be felt. That’s not the only key absence New England might have, as Buchanan is currently in transfer rumors and might be off the Club Brugge by Sunday. Center back Jon Bell has missed the last two games with a leg injury.
Side Prediction: Philadelphia +0.5 (-110)
Total: Under 3 (-110)
This would be a tough enough match even at full strength against a capable Philadelphia team, and New England looks likely to fall off some given its current injury situation. New England’s offense will need some time to adjust to life without its best playmaker and will be handled here by the elite Philadelphia defense.
The loss of Gil was apparent on Wednesday as the normally outstanding New England attack hardly generated any chances against Nashville without his fantastic passing ability, and things could be worse this weekend should their other top playmaker Buchanan not be available. Philadelphia’s defense is about as good as it gets as it has allowed the fourth-fewest goals in the league, and Blake is typically an excellent keeper.
While the offense isn’t as good, Philadelphia has performed better by predictive metrics with 1.61 expected goals per match, and Gazdag could start to be a difference-maker after joining the team nine matches ago as he played well on Wednesday. This is a Union team that is capable of beating anyone in MLS, and they will at least get a draw here with New England shorthanded.
Even if the New England defense struggles overall, it’s going to be tough for anyone to get by Turner after he was the best player for the U.S. National Team throughout the Gold Cup. That’s going to at least limit how many goals the Union will score, as finishing has been a problem for the team despite their ability to create pressure.
Life without Gil got off to a bad start on Wednesday as New England managed just 0.5 expected goals as everyone is going to fall off without his passing, and this is an even tougher defensive opponent. The first match between these two only produced two goals, and New England’s offense is now much worse.
