New York City FC vs. FC Dallas Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 9/14/21

New York City FC will look to get back on track when it hosts FC Dallas on Tuesday night at Red Bull Arena. Dallas currently sits outside of playoff position in 12th placein the Western Conference at 6-8-10 after battling the San Jose Earthquakes to a 1-1 home draw on Saturday, with the tie hitting at -104 odds. New York lost 2-1 on the road to the New England Revolution over the weekend as a +164 underdog, but remains in fourth place in the East at 10-4-8.

These teams haven’t met in nearly two full years, with the most matchup finishing in a 1-1 tie back in September of 2019 in Dallas. The all-time series is knotted up 1-3-1.

Pepi helps Dallas rally for a draw against San Jose

Fresh off leading the US Men’s National Team to a massive victory over Honduras earlier in the week, emerging star Ricardo Pepi returned to his MLS side over the weekend to help keep Dallas within four points of a playoff spot. San Jose struck just six minutes in as a penalty was awarded for Matt Hedges’ handball in the box, but Dallas would get the majority of the best chances for the rest of the night, and Pepi equalized in the 50thon a diving header following a fantastic run from Justin Che.

Dallas dominated statistically with 59% possession while racking up 17 total shots, seven of which went on target. Only some fantastic play in net from San Jose kept the hosts from getting all three points, while Dallas keeper Phelipe Megiolaro made two saves.

“We have to be disappointed in leaving two points on the table with a direct rival that we need to go over. That’s the ‘extra’ that we are still trying to find,”said manager Luchi Gonzalezto the Dallas Morning News.

The offense has generally been solid for FC Dallas, which is averaging 1.38 goals and 13.33 shots per game. Defense has kept Dallas from being a stronger side as opponents are putting up 1.54 goals on 13.87 shots per match, and it has kept only three clean sheets.

Pepi has emerged as one of MLS’ best players at just 18 years old with 12 goals and one assist on the season to pace the Dallas offense. Jesus Ferreira is also having a big year with five goals and five assists, while Ryan Hollingshead has added two goals and four helpers.

Hollingshead, typically Dallas’ starting left back, was unavailable for last Saturday’s match due to a foot problem and it’s unclear if he will play on Tuesday night. The defense has been further shorthanded throughout the year, with Johnny Nelson (back surgery) and Bressan (shoulder) out. Forwards Franco Jara (ribs) and Beni Redzic (sprained ankle) are also out.

NYCFC loses Eastern Conference showdown

After beating a Revolution team that is well out ahead in the race for the Supporters’ Shield just two weeks prior, NYCFC was unable to repeat that impressive feat again last weekend. Things got off to a great start with Santiago Rodriguez connecting on a close-range shot in the 11thbut New England would respond 10 minutes later and got the eventual winner midway through the second half shortly after NYCFC’s Alfredo Morales was shown a second yellow card, reducing the visitors to 10 men.

The Revolution were on the front foot even before the red card, finishing with 59% possession and six attempts on target, while only three of NYCFC’s 10 shots were on goal. Valentín Castellanos was credited with a nice assist on the Rodriguez goal, while Sean Johnson kept NYCFC in it with four saves.

“We kept ourselves in the game,” manager Ronny Deila said afterwardto NYCFC’s official website.“As I said attitude wise, we're very good, we were up for it. At the same time it's a lack of understanding, or maybe discipline. We give them an opportunity to get 2-1. A little bit disappointed about that, but it’s always tough to play away with ten men.”

This is one of MLS’ most balanced teams, as NYCFC is averaging 1.73 goals on 16.31 shots per game to rank only behind New England in the East. NYCFC’s defense has also been stellar, allowing 1.09 goals and 8.45 shots per game while keeping a whopping eight clean sheets.

Castellanos is in the hunt for the MLS MVP award with 11 goals and seven assists this year to pace the NYCFC offense. Maximiliano Moralez has dished out a team-high eight assists, while Jesus Medina has scored seven times.

Rodriguez left the last match shortly after scoring with an apparent hamstring injury, and it’s unclear if he will play. Morales will be suspended for Tuesday’s contest due to the red card. Forward Heber has returned to training after tearing his ACL last September but isn’t ready to play yet, while defender Tayvon Gray has a hamstring problem.

Side prediction:NYCFC -1.5 (+115)

Total:Over 3 (-120)

There hasn’t been enough from Dallas this season to indicate that it can beat an elite team like this on the road, while NYCFC is looking like a threat to win the MLS cup. A much more well-rounded NYCFC side will break down Dallas’ defense too often, and its worth a shot at plus odds to see if it can win against a bad team by multiple goals.

Last week’s loss to an elite New England team aside, NYCFC has looked more like the juggernaut most expected over the last few weeks, as it now ranks inside the top two in all of MLS in both expected goals and expected goals allowed. That’s going to be a big challenge for Dallas all over the field and particularly on the defensive side, where it has been limited by injuries all season while giving up two or more goals in 11 of its 24 matches.

The quality of attacking depth is also a big difference as Dallas falls off quickly after Pepi while just about everyone for NYCFC up front seems to be in good form. NYCFC gets even more dominant at home where it last lost on June 19, and will just be too much for Dallas on both sides of the ball.

While this NYCFC offense is certainly tough to break down, Dallas might just be up to the task as Pepi can’t stop scoring over the past few weeks. Dallas has provided enough support all around with 1.63 expected goals per game to rank sixth in MLS, and the offense has much stronger numbers on the road for whatever reason.

The problem is the Dallas defense ranks in the bottom 10 in just about every stat, and Castellanos should carve them up as his MVP-level numbers are supported by piling up a whopping 18.2 expected goals plus assists. NYCFC has a great chance to tally the three goals itself here, but Dallas won’t be easy to shut out.