New York City FC vs. Toronto FC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/15/21

NYCFC takes on Toronto FC in each of their fourth games of the 2021 MLS season on Saturday afternoon from Yankee Stadium. NYCFC has an Eastern Conference-leading +6 goal differential and sit on seven points with two wins and a draw. For Toronto, their -2 goal differential isn’t a concern yet, but sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings is one, with only four points on the season. NYCFC is riding a bit more momentum, with their only loss coming in the season opener a month ago, while Toronto also won their last time out, shutting out Columbus. Over the last few years, these have been two of the more consistent teams in the league as a whole, and Toronto knows they need a massive step up in performance to steal points on the road in this one. Which team will leave town with the points on Saturday?

NYCFC Bashing Down Opponents

NYCFC has already won by multiple goals in both of their wins, including a 5-0 drubbing against Cincinnati. Last year saw NYCFC dropped in the first round of the playoffs after a 5th place Eastern Conference finish, but prior to that had made it to the quarter-finals four straight times, finishing top three in their conference each time. This season is picking up right where those past seasons left off, especially over the last weeks between the wins over Cincinnati and Philadelphia and a tie the last time out on the road against Orlando. Ronny Deila has to be impressed with the current squad and no CONCACAF Champions League has worked to keep them fresh over the first month of the season. For a team filled with a combination of young stars with European experience or aspirations, and experienced players, the sky really does appear to be the limit for this year’s edition of the NYCFC squad.

After years of legend David Villa dominating the goalscoring race within the team, the last three years have seen Heber, Valentin Castellanos, and Jesus Medina, top the score sheet for the season. All three have been able to remain with the side into this 2021 season and provide some talent up front that is tough to match in terms of finishing ability and overall electricity. Castellanos already has four goals after scoring seven all of last year, while Medina has three himself as well. In the back they have USMNT-veteran Sean JOhnson to direct the troops and max the timely saves, even as he ages, and then USMNT and former-Bundesliga regular, Alfredo Morales, holding down the midfield as one of the leaders of the team. One player to keep an eye on in the midfield is Keaton Parks, whose experience with Benfica is unmatched and should be seen as a key cog in the NYCFC lineup.

It’s been years since NYCFC has found any success in the SuperDraft, but that doesn’t mean that they are short on young talent. The off-season saw them bring in Chris Gloster from Jong PSV who found success in Europe as a young American. Combining Gloster with homegrown player James Sands, has been a big step in the right direction in terms of youth development within the senior team. Sands is already one of the most sought-after young Americans and is one to keep an eye on in the midfield. Gedion Zelalem is still looking to make his mark with the squad after a promising young career with Arsenal, though now looking a far cry from the player many predicted he might become.

Toronto Eyeing Stars To Wake Up

Toronto continues to have one of the most experienced and star-studded rosters in the league, but that hasn’t led to success recently. Last year saw a first-round exit after a runner-up MLC Cup finish in 2019. The 2017 MLC Cup win seems farther and farther away every year, especially as the core continues to age. Being one of the top Canadian teams doesn’t necessarily help, as the coaching staff has had to worry about navigating CONCACAF Champions League as well as the MLS schedule over the last month. The CONCACAF schedule has taken them to Mexico twice since the start of April, and those miles alone already seem to be taking a toll on the team. After a slow start over the last six weeks, Toronto finally came through with a home win against Columbus by two goals last time out and will be looking to carry that momentum over into Saturday’s game against their conference rival.

If nothing else, Toronto definitely has some depth with six different players having scored an MLS goal already this year and 24 different players appearing in a game as well. The roster is filled with notable names, but ones that with age haven’t given up their spots, but also have struggled to keep up their form. Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley are two key players with USMNT ties that come to most people’s minds for Toronto FC, and both have a goal this year. Fans know though that they need a massive season from Altidore to make a return run at MLS glory. The return of Richie Laryea to Canada has been crucial for the former Akron University standout, while Omar Gonzalez continues to try to hold down the backline defensively, and has one of only two assists for the team on the year. The game against Columbus saw Bradley and Altidore both score, a trend that the staff will need to see going forward if Toronto wants to remain competitive across most matches.

As mentioned earlier, even though most fans think of the USMNT veterans that patrol the Toronto starting lineup, it’s the youngsters who need to make themselves known to become the face of the club. Ayo Akinola jumped on the scene last season up top, scoring nine goals in only 15 matches and has the ability to provide support to Altidore and some speed at the top of the formation. Another key player is homegrown signee Marky Delgado, who has spent numerous years with the U.S. Youth National Team setup.

Pick: NYCFC (-170)

NYCFC is riding momentum over the last few weeks and have one of the most dangerous offenses in the league already this season. They’re seemingly scoring goals at will and being the home team and playing on the field with limited dimensions like Yankee Stadium is set up for, should suit them well on Saturday. In addition, while Toronto did win against Columbus last week, the goal scoring prowess just doesn't seem to be there for this team yet on the season, especially with all the travel between the two competitions and fewer practice time than most of their competition so far. NYCFC also has a great group of youngsters looking to continue to challenge and prove themselves and their athleticism on the backline will make life incredibly difficult for Altidore and company, and another multi-goal win will be incoming for NYCFC at home on Saturday.

Total: Under 3

Neither team necessarily struggles to score, but they’re so accustomed to each other that breaking through might be tough for the first half especially. Over the last five games between these two teams since 2019, more than three goals have only been scored once, and under three goals has been the outcome three other times. Early in this season, goals have been at a premium overall, especially in rivalry games and this one looks like it will be the same. Both teams also have dynamic goalkeepers in Sean Johnson and Alex Bono, both of whom have the ability to make massive saves and stand on their head in goal to keep the goals out in this one.