New York Red Bulls vs. Philadelphia Union Prediction, Preview and Odds -9/29/21

The New York Red Bulls play host to the Philadelphia Union on Wednesday night from Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey, in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup. The two teams have already met twice this season, with a draw in the latest matchup and Philadelphia taking the win in the first matchup. Over the course of the last five meetings, dating back to 2019, the Union has won three games, the Red Bulls one, and one draw. The Philadelphia Union sit in fourth-place in the Eastern Conference but are far from a lock to be playing in the MLS Cup Playoffs. New York on the other hand comes in eight points back of Philadelphia, in eleventh place. While it appears nobody is going to catch the Revolution at the top of the table, there is still quite a bit to work out with the rest of the playoffs and both of these teams have a good chance to shape their outlook on Wednesday. Wednesday promises to be a great game between two longtime rivals and fans could expect the Eastern Conference standings to look different by the time the game is over.

Union Mounting Strong Run

After a few seasons finding themselves right near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, the Union now find themselves in a fight for their playoff lives. Through 25 games on the season, they sit on 38 points and a plus-seven goal differential. That means they’re only two points clear of Atlanta, the first team who would be left out of the playoffs if the regular season ended today. This promises to be one of the best regular-season finishes in recent history but the good news is that they have a game in hand on everyone surrounding them. Getting to second place seems slightly unrealistic but third place is well within reach. The Union are on a run of two straight wins, both at home, outscoring their opponents 4-1. After losing to Club America in the CONCACAF Champions League semifinals, the Union can now place all of their focus on finishing the regular season and managing their squad quite a bit better. With a lot still on the line for the Union, Wednesday will be an interesting game to potentially shape how their season turns out.

One advantage for Philadelphia this season has been their ability to stay healthy and keep their stars on the field. Unfortunately though, according to the league’s availability report, they could be without as many as three players on Wednesday night. Ilsinho (hamstring) and Cory Burke (ankle) are definitely out for the Red Bull matchup. The main thing to keep an eye on though is Alejandro Bedoya (calf), who is questionable heading into the midweek matchup. Ilsinho has appeared in only five matches, with no goals nor assists to his name, so shouldn’t be a massive miss. Burke is a little more of a miss, having scored four goals and added two assists in 17 games. Bedoya has only added a goal on the season but if both he and Burke are out, that means some issues within the midfield and that lack of depth and creativity could be an issue.

Kacper Przybylko is the leading scorer on the team, banging in nine goals and adding two assists. His form has been sharp of late too, adding three goals in his last two games, and will be looking to score in a third straight on Wednesday. Jamiro Monteiro leads the team with five assists and is looking to be the creative leader with the potential injuries that the Union might be dealt. The backline has talent but not as much experience. The good news is that with one of the top goalkeepers not just in the league, but in CONCACAF, in Andre Blake, the Union like their chance to steal a win any given game. Blake always has a chance at pitching a shutout in net and Wednesday will be no different of an expectation. Expect the defense to continue their strong run of play and for Blake to continue to impress across the league.

Red Bulls Looking For Final Surge

While Philadelphia would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, New York would find themselves quite a bit on the outside looking in. The good news is that they too have a game in hand on most of the teams surrounding them and ahead of them and are only seven points shy of seventh place in the Eastern Conference. It’ll still take a great finish and probably some help to sneak into the playoffs but crazier things have happened. They have 30 points in 25 games and a plus-two goal differential. For the Red Bulls, they have their own nice little streak going, having not lost in three matches. The last time out saw them go on the road to NYCFC and take down their rival, with a draw against them being the result the week prior, and a road win against Miami the week before. Now being able to head back home should give New York plenty of confidence to make it four straight matches without a loss. New York still seems like they could be in great positioning and even though there are quite a few teams ahead of them in the Eastern Conference standings, the season is far from over.

While the Union have their own slight injuries to navigate, New York is in a similar boat. They know that they’ll at least be without two players, in Aaron Long (Achilles) and Lucas Monzon (hamstring). Fabio (calf) is questionable to go and if he’s unable to see time on Wednesday, the Red Bulls could be in a tough spot. Fabio is second on the team with five goals but is first in assists, with six. He’s one of the best creators on the team and without him, New York will miss one of the most talented players on either side. Long has only appeared in five games and while it would be great for him to be playing, the Red Bulls have found ways to navigate life without him. For Monzon, the youngster hasn’t seen the field yet this season and his absence shouldn’t impact the game at all.

As mentioned earlier, Fabio is probably the most complete attacking threat on the team but with there being a good chance that he doesn’t play, it’ll be on someone else to step up in his absence. Patryk Klimala is the leading goal-scorer, with seven, and is second in assists, with five. He’s the natural next option on the attaching front but another one to keep an eye on is Caden Clark. Clark, who is headed to Europe, has the natural ability to step up in a big way and could be looked at as a replacement for Fabio in the interim. Defensively, Andrew Gutman brings in quite a bit of experience but the backline still remains an unknown commodity. If the defense can continue to play at a high level, another three points could be on the horizon.

Pick: Red Bulls (+120)

The first two meetings of the season between these two teams have had razor-thin margins, with a tie in the latest matchup and a one-goal matchup in the other meeting. Philadelphia has some issues with injuries and even though New York could be without Fabio, they seem to have other options ready to step up in his absence. The form isn’t a problem, as both teams come in on nice little unbeaten streaks. The kicker is the home field advantage with New York hosting the matchup. Philadelphia having to go on the road isn’t ideal and the backline, which continues to be an Achilles heel, doesn’t seem to be made well to adapt on the road. Expect New York to use their attacking depth to their advantage and find the win and a crucial three points.

Pick: Under

Both teams could be missing key contributors to their attack, with Fabio, Burke, and Bedoya, all potentially not playing on Wednesday. Add in that there is so much pressure-packed into this game, given the massive playoff implications, and defenses will likely be taking center-stage. Both teams also have strong goalkeepers as well who can take control. Add in that more than three goals have been scored between these two teams only once in the last five meetings, and more than two goals twice, it’s clear this rivalry is one predicated on defense.