NFL Player Prop Bets for 2023
Most Regular Season Passing Yards
1)Justin Herbert, LA Chargers, +650
Herbert threw for 5,014 yards in 2021 and 4,739 yards in 2022. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are a very strong WR duo and he just added Quentin Johnson from TCU. The fact that Williams and Allen missed a combined 11 games last season was a major reason he had a down year. Expect a big year from him and he’s a player to bet the over in yards and TDs when you are looking at game props.
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2)Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City, +300
Is there anybody better than Patrick Mahomes? This isn’t a contest about quality but it was amazing that Mahomes threw for more yards last season than he did with Tyreek Hill. Hill left for the Miami Dolphins and the Chiefs won another Super Bowl The receiving corps is still pretty ordinary and they just lost JuJu Smith-Schuster. Add that to the fact that TE Travis Kelce is now 34 and they may be leaning a bit more on their running game. Mahomes is a great player, but he may be overvalued at times in overall prop bets.
3)Joe Burrow, Cincinnati, +1100
Hard not to like Burrow and that outstanding receiving corps. They also added Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle to help protect Burrow, who threw for 4,475 yards in 16 games last season. Getting better protection will help Burrow along with the addition of TE Gerald Everett. Burrow is young and cocky but is a very accurate passer.
4)Josh Allen, Buffalo, +800
The only major concern here is that Stefon Diggs has been putting. Allen threw for just 4,283 yards last season. Allen is a machine though he can be mistake-prone and will run when necessary. But his rushing can also take away his passing yards and TDs. He can be fantastic for fantasy football though.
5)Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville, +2000
Lawrence exploded last season with a former quarterback taking over and Doug Pederson. Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards and the sky is the limit now that the Jags have brought in Calvin Ridley to boost the receiving corps. Lawrence should take another decent leap this season. He’s the type of quarterback who can elevate his team, which means look at his props as well as the Jags to bet on.
Longshot: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore +4000
The arrival of Odell Beckham Jr. and new OC Todd Monken should allow this offense to generate a lot more passing yards than in the past. In 2019, Jackson threw for 3,127 yards without much of a WR crop. Now, he has OBJ, rookie Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor. Jackson should be the improved quarterback when it comes to passing yards, while his rushing yards should decrease this season playing in a new system.
Most Passing Touchdowns
1)Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City, +225
Mahomes is literally a machine. He has averaged 38.4 touchdowns per season over the last five seasons. He threw for 41 touchdowns last season despite having a mediocre receiving corps. He’ll have another average corps again, but that won’t stop him from throwing 40+ TDs again. The Chiefs love to throw the ball inside the 10, so Mahomes is always a solid pickup for Game props.
2)Josh Allen, Buffalo, +450
He’d be number one if Stefon Diggs was in a better mood in the off-season. One thing about Allen is that he going to take chances and that can be good or bad. When it comes to throwing TD passes, he’s averaged 36 over his last three seasons. He’s great for Fantasy owners because he’ll also give you 7-8 rushing TDs a season. In terms of betting.
3)Joe Burrow, Cincinnati, +450
As long as he’s healthy, Burrow is going to be throwing for over 30 touchdowns this season. He’s averaged 34.5 touchdowns in his last two seasons. He’s not a runner, though he did have five rushing TDs last season. That’s partially due to the poor protection up front and with Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle, he’ll have more time to throw. He’s a consistent player that is almost always worth betting on.
4)Aaron Rodgers, NY Jets, +465
Rodgers finally showed signs of slowing down last season but still managed to throw for 26 TDs for a very average Packers team. He’ll not only have Allen Lazard with him, but also Garrett Wilson so he’ll have a better group of receivers. He’s averaged 37 TDs a season over the last three years. Rodgers will have at least one season where he’ll re-energize. He’s a QB to bet on whether it’s the Jets or his props.
5)Justin Herbert, LA Chargers, +1100
Hebert threw for just 25 touchdowns last season because his receiving corps was decimated by injuries. You can’t project a thinking like that and if they are fairly healthy, expect Herbert to return to his 2021 form, where he threw for 38 TDs. He’s a big, strong QB with a big arm and a solid option. What’s not to like?
Longshot: Geno Smith, Seattle, +3000
How can you not like a great story like 32-year-old Geno Smith? But he’s more than just a story. Smith tossed for 30TDs last season after spending most of his career, save for the first two seasons, as a backup. He has great weapons in DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett and they drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick from Ohio State. With a questionable running situation, Smith should throw even more this season. That’s why Seattle could be a nice value play this season and Smith should be used for most passing props.
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards
1)Nick Chubb, Cleveland, +450
Chubb rushed for 1,312 yards last season to rank third in the AFC and in the NFL. The Browns lost Kareem Hunt, so he’ll be the number one and two option on the ground. He’s 230 pounds so he can get the tough yards inside the 10, The only concern is the Cleveland offense, which should be more efficient with Deshaun Watson back for a second year with the Browns. Pro Football Focus had him number one with a grade of 90.7 last season. If you see a prop bet of 70 yards for the first game against Pittsburgh, go over. He totaled 190 yards in two games against them last season.
2)Rhamondre Stevenson, New England, +1500
Stevenson came on last season and averaged 2.9 yards before contact. He also rushed for 5.0 yards per carry. Damien Harris is gone so the entire attack should be centered around the running game. That certainly should be the case when your best quarterback is Mac Jones. Stevenson is a really underrated back and he’s worth going over on the yardage props, even though the Pats are playing Buffalo in their first game.
3)Miles Sanders, Carolina, +3000
I’m a little concerned about the contract situations of Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley, so Sanders is a safer pick here. He had 1,269 rushing yards last season and tallied 11 TDs in an offense dominated by Jalen Hurts, who can also take off. Now, he’ll be the main back in Carolina, who could start a rookie at quarterback. Bryce Young is not going to run as much as Jalen Hurts, because he’s small. With Chuba Hubbard as the backup, there will be a lot of Miles Sanders toting the rock about 15-20 times per game. In terms of betting, I’d wait and see who the quarterback is in preseason. If it’s Andy Dalton, he’ll still get the rock plenty of times, but the offense will be mediocre at best.
4)Derrick Henry, Tennessee, +650
At some point, Henry is going to start to wear down. At 29, he’s still in his prime after rushing for 1,538 yards and 96.1 yards per game. The fact that the Titans are starting to rebuild is a concern as the offensive line will be a mess, especially with the loss of RT Nicholas Petit-Frere due to a suspension. PFF has them ranked 32nd in football and a new left tackle in Andre Dillard, who was marginal at best in Philadelphia. Due to that line, I’d lay off on using Henry for betting props.
5)Bijan Robinson, Atlanta, +1000
Robinson is one of the best rookie running backs to come to the league since Saquon Barkley. He was a dazzling back at Texas, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, He’s big at 6-0, 220 with great speed. With Desmond Ridder at quarterback, Atlanta will likely rely more on running the football, to take some pressure off of him. The Falcons also have a very good offensive line that is geared for the run. With a rookie back, I’d take a more wait-and-see approach before looking at props. Assuming he plays very little in preseason, he’s still a player that you should look for value in rushing yard totals early in the season.
Longshot: Aaron Jones, Green Bay, +3500
Jones is a hard-nose runner, who rushed for 1,121 yards in 17 games last season. However, with Jordan Love taking over at quarterback for Aaron Rodgers, you should expect Jones to surpass those numbers. The offensive line is a strength now that David Bakhtiari is back and Zach Tom, moves to right tackle. From a betting perspective, Jones is always a solid option to take when it comes to yards-per-game props.
Most Receiving Yards
1)Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati, +600
Chase is one of those special talents with size and speed, who should put up 1,500 yards every season. Last year, he caught 87 passes, but just 1,046 yards in just 12 games due to a hip injury. He has one of the best quarterbacks in the game throwing to him in Joe Burrow and an improved offensive line with Orlando Brown Jr. arriving at left tackle. It also helps to have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd making sure that teams can’t just double-team him. Chase is an absolute stud and a great playmaker who is just 23. He's only going to get better and for bettors, he’s worth the value in terms of props, at least early in the season.
2)Justin Jefferson, Minnesota, +550
Jefferson is a future Hall of Fame if he can stay healthy. At just 24, he’s considered the best receiver in football, after three seasons where he’s had no less than 1400 yards receiving. There is one issue and that’s the rest of his receivers, who are pretty ordinary. Rookie Jordan Addison has a chance to be very good right away and should take away some of his receptions. Chase has the better quarterback and the better line. Jefferson is still a monster in terms of numbers, but I’d go with Chase this season. In terms of betting, I’d worry a bit about him being overvalued in terms of the props.
3)Tyreek Hill, Miami, +900
Nothing beats speed and at 29, Hill still has plenty of it. Tau Tagovailoa loves to throw to him (170 targets) and that’s despite missing the final two games. Hill had fewer targets with Mahomes, who had a pretty dominant tight end in Travis Kelce. Hill led all receivers in yards per route run at 3.2 and led the AFC in receiving yards with 1,710. He hasn’t slowed down yet, though injuries will be a concern for a player reaching 30. When he’s healthy, he’s a solid lock for betting props.
4)A.J. Brown, Philadelphia, +2500
There is something underrated about Brown. He’s built like a tank (6-0, 225), but can run past you or run through you. He averaged an impressive 17 yards per reception and 10.3 yards per target. He went from getting a little over 100 targets a year in Tennessee to 145 last season with Jalen Hurts continuing to emerge as a passer. The Eagles have the best line in football so as long as they are healthy, expect more of the same this season.
5)Davante Adams, Las Vegas, +1200
Injury-prone Jimmy G. is the new quarterback in Las Vegas, which means his backup Brian Hoyer will see plenty of time. That’s not great for Adams, but the 30-year-old seems to put up consistent numbers every season, no matter who the quarterback is. Last season, he was targeted a whopping 180 times and had 1,516 yards receiving. Adams is like a machine that never seems to slow down. At some point, he will, but keep him in your betting thoughts as a strong betting option.
Longshot: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas, +2200
Lamb broke out last season with 1,359 yards receiving and 156 targets. Lamb also ran mostly in the slot. And was incredibly productive. He might not see as many targets this season with veteran Brandin Cooks in the fold, but he should have a stronger yard per-catch average (12.7ypc) than last season. It’s hard to believe that he’s just 24 and still hasn’t reached his prime yet. That’s scary and a good reason to take him for value in the overall category as well as the props for regular season games.
Most Receptions
1)Justin Jefferson, Minnesota, +650
Even though I think Chase will surpass him in yards, if you can get Jefferson as a third favorite in any receiving category, he’s worth betting on. The guy has averaged 118 catches over his last season seasons. He had 184 targets last season, which led the NFL. He’s just 24 and plays for a former QB in Kevin O’Connell. My only concern is that he will see a lot of safety help this season.
2)Cooper Kupp, LA Rams, +500
In 2021, Kupp had 145 catches and 191 targets. He caught 75 passes in just nine games last season. It’s not like the Rams added a lot of talent at wide receiver. The key is Matthew Stafford’s healthy and if he’s injured, Kupp will still put up pretty good numbers, but won’t catch Jefferson. He’s now 30 and injuries could be an issue, but he was never a speed demon. He does run well after the catch. As long as Stafford is healthy, he’s a good play during the regular season for props.
3)Travis Kelce, Kansas City, +1100
Kelce is an absolute machine. He had 12 targets and 110 receptions last season and has averaged 102 catches over his last three seasons. He doesn’t appear to be slowing down, even though he’s 34. The fact that the Chiefs are still in need of quality receivers, Mahomes will still be looking his way at least 150 times this season. Kelce will probably be slightly overvalued due to his name in prop bet during the regular season. But the overall receptions stat could be a winner.
4)Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati, +600
Chase would be the best receiver in football if not for Jefferson hanging around. But we’re talking receptions and not yards. In fact, due to injury, had a bit of a sophomore slump. He’ll bounce back from that, but with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd around, Joe Burrow doesn’t need to target him as much as other top receivers. However, he did have 134 targets in 12 games last season, which translates to 187 in a full season. He should get over 100 catches for the first time this season with ease.
5)Tyreek Hill, Miami, +800
Hill seemed to be re-energized in Miami, catching 119 passes for 1,710 yards with 170 targets. That’s despite playing alongside a very good receiver in Jaylon Waddle. Tua Tagovailoa loves to throw Hill the ball because he’s amazing with the ball in his hands. He also has good hands, which you can’t always say about burners. Hill is an outstanding receiver but doesn’t score as much as you’d expect with that speed. He had just 16 touchdowns over his last two seasons. Go over with him in the “yards” category in the regular season, but don’t use him on TDs.
Sleeper: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit, +1800
St. Brown shouldn’t be a sleeper, after catching 196 passes over his last season. He’s just 23 and even though Jered Goff is not an elite passer, he does love to target him (146). Goff did have a very good 2022 season and should be able to build on it. He has nothing behind him, so if he goes down, Brown’s numbers will decrease. If you like to be touchdown props in the regular season, Brown had 22 targets in the red zone last season according to PFF, which tied for eighth in the league. He should have more than six touchdown catches this season.