NFL Week 1 Betting Recap
NFL Week 1 Betting Recap
There were a lot of weird things that occurred in Week 1 that may have cost people betting pools, parlays, teasers and regular bets. Let’s take a look at each game and look at the betting implications that occurred and may also affect the line in Week 2 and beyond.
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(closing lines) (Home team in caps)
Thursday, September 8, 2022
Buffalo (-1.5) over LA RAMS 31-10/Under 51.5
This Thursday night game was a tie at the half, but the Rams could not take advantage of two flukish Josh Allen interceptions and a fumble. Josh Allen threw for 297 yards with three TDs and ran for 56 yards and a score. The Bills’ winning was not a shocker, but the spread was. The Rams couldn’t run the ball (52 yards) and Matthew Stafford (240 yds, 3 INTs) struggled due to rust and a shaky offensive line.
Sunday, September 11, 2022
CHCICAGO (+6.5) over San Francisco 19-10/Under 38.5
The weather was a major factor in this game as the rain and soggy turf did wonders to the offense. Justin Field was able to throw for two touchdowns after the Bears got down 10-0. There’s always a worry in San Francisco that Trey Lance (13 of 28 for 164 yds, 1 INT) is not the answer. That might be true and it’s why they didn’t trade Jimmy G. but give him more than one game. Still, this was one of the surprise scores of the day.
ATLANTA (+5.5) over New Orleans 26-27/Over 43.5
This was one of the most bizarre games of the day. Let’s start with kicker Will Lutz for the Saints. He missed a 44-yarder early in the game, but the story was Atlanta’s running game. They were able to rush for 201 yards on 38 attempts led by former WR Cordarrelle Patterson, who had 120 yards and score one TD. Journeyman QB Marcus Mariota had a solid game with 215 yards passing and 72 yards rushing with a TD. Atlanta led by 16 in the fourth quarter and blew the game late. Taysom Hill, now a tight end, ran for 81 yards and a TD. Michael Thomas also made his long-awaited return with five catches for 57 yards. Jameis Winston was solid with 269 yards and two TDs with no picks.
DETROIT (+5.5) over Philadelphia 35-38/Over 48.5
The Lions get an “A” for effort and their ability to get 14 fourth-quarter points to get the backdoor cover was a frustrating loss for Eagles’ bettors. Offensively, Philly was very balanced with 216 rushing yards and 239 passing yards. Jalen Hurts threw for 243 yards and ran for 90 with a score. Jered Goff was ok for Detroit with 215 yards passing and two TDs. DeAndre Swift ran for 144 yards and a score. The Eagles’ offensive line and defense still might be an issue.
Pittsburgh (+7.5) over CINCINNATI 23-20ot/Under 44.5
This had to be one of the craziest opening games ever. Joe Burrow throws for four interceptions in the first half, yet the Bengals have a chance to win the game at the end at 20-20. Evan McPherson had an extra point blocked with two seconds left to send the game in overtime and missed a 29-yard field goal with 3:33 left in overtime. His long snapper went out with an injury, which didn’t help matters. Speaking of injury, LB T.J. Watt tore his pec in this one and will be out indefinitely. All he did was have one sack and an interception. S Minkah Fitzpatrick was the star of the game with a pick-six and he blocked the extra point. Burrow had four picks and a lost fumble, but threw for 338 yards and two TDs.
Baltimore (-6.5) over NY JETS 24-9/Under 44.5
Not much suspense in this game as the Ravens led just 10-3 at the half in another game hampered by rain. Baltimore would pull away late in the game to lead 24-3 and the Jets scored a late TD to make the score respectable. Lamar Jackson threw for three touchdowns and had one pick. Two of the TDs went to wide receiver/kick return Devin Duvernay. However, the Ravens struggled to run the ball as they amassed just 63 yards on 21 attempts. Joe Flacco threw the ball 59 times and was under constant harassment. His starting days could be over if Robert Saleh decides to go with a young and more athletic quarterback in Mike White or if Zach Wilson returns from a knee injury.
MIAMI (-3.5) over NEW ENGLAND 20-7/Under 45.5
Bill Belichick has now lost the Dolphins four straight times. This was another ugly game where the story was defense. Miami held the Patriots to just 78 rushing yards though they had just 65 themselves. Mac Jones had 213 passing yards but one pick. He struggled with back spasms, but should return for Week 2. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 270 yards with a TD. None went to Tyreek Hill, who had eight catches for 94 yards. The difference here was turnovers as the Patriots lost two fumbles and had a pick. Miami had two fumbles but recovered both had no turnovers.
WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Jacksonville/Over 43.5
Carson Wentz had a Carson Wentz-type of game with four TDs and two INTs, which almost cost his team the game. Washington nearly blew the cover but had two scores in the final 10 minutes. They blew an 11-point lead at the half and allowed 19 straight points. Defensively, you have to wonder about the Commanders without DE Chase Young, coming off an ACL injury. Trevor Lawrence had his only INT with 1:10 left to seal the game for Washington. He completed just 24 of 42 passes for 275 yards and a TD. Christian Kirk was his top receiver with six receptions for 117 yards. The Jags should be more explosive this season, but so should Washington with their many weapons.
CAROLINA (+2.5) over Cleveland 24-26/Over 42
This was not a great ending or a great game for Cleveland bettors and those who bet the under. The Browns were up 17-7 at the half and 20-7 after three quarter. Easy under and a Browns win, right? Wrong. Baker Mayfield hits Robbie Anderson for a 75-yard TD and runs it in from seven yards in the fourth quarter. Cleveland needed a Cade York 58-yard field goal with eight seconds left to get the win. The Browns didn’t have to rely on Jacoby Brissett (18 of 34, 147 yds) because Nick Chubb had 141 yards and Kareem Hunt scored two TDs. The Browns’ top-notch defense held Christian McCaffrey to 33 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards. Mayfield completed just 16 of 27 for 235 yards with one TD and a pick. Myles Garrett had two sacks against his old teammate.
HOUSTON (+7.5) over Indianapolis 20-20ot/Under 46.5
A tie is like kissing your sister, right? That was not the result Colts’ fans or even Houston fans were looking for. Houston was up 20-3 going into the fourth quarter. The Colts are looking for another field goal kicker after Rodrigo Blankenship missed a 42-yard field goal with 1:57 left in overtime. Matt Ryan brought the team back and threw for 352 yards, while Jonathan Taylor rushed for 161 yards on 31 carries. Indy totaled 517 yards of offense and allowed just 299, but couldn’t get the win. They also had the ball for 39:37. Seven penalties for 89 yards and two turnovers did not help. They also had five total fumbles, but just one loss. But give the Houston defense credit for bending but not breaking much.
NY Giants (+5.5) over TENNESSEE 21-20/Under 44
One of the biggest point spread upsets of Sunday, the Giants got the job done despite Daniel Jones’ mediocre numbers of 188 yards passing (17 of 21) for two TDs and one pick. He only had to throw the ball 21 times because Saquon Barkley looked like he was in rookie form with 164 yards and one TD. Nobody saw that coming against what was the No. 2 ranked run defense last season. The Giants also slowed down Derrick Henry (82 yds, 21 att) and their passing game (266 yds, 2 TDs) is not as explosive without A.J. Brown. Quite a start and a big win for new coach Brian Daboll and the Giants.
MINNESOTA (-1.5 over Green Bay 23-7/ Under 46.5
Now, the score was a bit surprising but Aaron Rodgers needs receivers or at least experience. Rookie Christian Watson dropped an easy TD pass to open the game and Rodgers struggled without Allen Lazard. Rodgers threw for 195 yards with a pick and no TDs. No overreaction here, though you might have to think about the totals with Green Bay. They only ran the ball 18 times for 111 yards. Rodgers will never be a game-manager, but what choice do they have until he gets comfortable with his receivers? Minnesota got the job done as Kirk Cousins threw for 277 yards and two TDs. Inexplicably, Justin Jefferson was found wide open several times and caught 9 passes for 184 yards with both scores. Dalvin Cook added 90 yards rushing. They also sacked Rodgers four times including one by former Packer DE/OLB Za’Darius Smith.
Kansas City (-6) over ARIZONA 44-21/Over 54
Not much to say about this one. Just never doubt Patrick Mahomes or Andy Reid. Mahomes had 360 yards with five TDs and no picks. Who needs Tyreek Hill or even a running game? The Cardinals have issues with no DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games and Christian Kirk playing in Jacksonville. When Greg Dortch is your leading receiver, you have problems. They also had no running game as James Conner was held to just 26 yards on 10 carries. That has to be part of the equation until Hopkins returns.
LA CHARGERS (-3.5) over Las Vegas Raiders 24-19/Under 53
Tough loss for Raiders’ bettors. Vegas went for two with 4:32 left in the game when Derek Carr hit Davante Adams for a three-yard score. But their two-point attempt failed as Hunter Renfrow couldn’t get in the end zone. Renfrow had a very quiet day (3 catches for 21 yards), but Adams was the main threat with 10 receptions for 141 yards and a score. Carr struggled with three picks, two TDs and 295 yards. Justin Herbert was fantastic as usual with 279 yards and three TDs. Unfortunately for the Chargers, star WR Keenan Allen (4 catches for 66 yards) suffered a hamstring injury and is not expected to play in their game on Thursday night. On the good news front, Khalil Mack had three sack and Joey Bosa added 1.5 as the Chargers’ defense received a real spark from the former Bears and Raiders’ Edge rusher.
Tampa Bay (-2.5) over DALLAS 19-3/Under 49.5
Dallas not only lost the game, but lost QB Dak Prescott to a (throwing) hand injury that will knock him out 6-8 weeks according to media reports, though Jerry Jones said he will be less than that after surgery. Either way, the Cowboys have issues on offense. Prescott was not good (14-of-29, 134 yds, INT) before the injury and some of that has to do with injuries on the offensive line. It might be time to depend on the offensive line, but not having Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, who is coming off an ACL injury, showed that teams will just try and shut down CeeDee Lamb. Tom Brady (212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT) is now 7-0 vs. the Cowboys. Leonard Fournette also had a big game with 127 yards rushing.
Monday, September 12, 2022
SEATTLE (+6) over Denver 17-16/Under 43.5
So not a very good rookie debut for head coach Nathaniel Hackett on Monday night. He had the ball and with three timeouts left down one with Russell Wilson. Instead of going for it on 4th-and-5 from the Seattle 46, the Denver coach decided to have Brandon McManus attempt a 64-yard field goal that predictably missed because it would have been the second-longest kick in NFL history. It shouldn’t have come down to that field goal because Denver fumbled the ball twice at the Seahawks’ goal line. A team has not lost fumbles twice in one game inside the opponent’s 5-yard line for more than a decade. Russell Wilson had good numbers in his first trip back to Seattle with 340 yards and one TD, but he struggled in the red zone and his new teammates had issues with the crowd noise. New Seattle QB Geno Smith was terrific as a game-manager with 195 yards passing, two TDs and no picks. Can the Seahawks keep it up the bend-but-not break approach the rest of the way?