NFL Week 10 Betting Recap
NFL Week 10 Betting Recap
The season is really moving fast. Let’s take a look at each game from Week 10 and look at the betting implications that occurred and may also affect the line in Week 11 and beyond.
(closing lines) (Home team in caps)
Thursday, Nov. 10
CAROLINA (+2.5) over Atlanta 25-15/Under 41.5
The Panthers found a way to win, scoring the game’s first 13 points in the wet weather in Charlotte. D’onta Foreman ran for 130 yards and a TD to lead Carolina who had just 108 passing yards from P.J. Walker. He’ll be replaced by Baker Mayfield this week in Baltimore. The bottom line for Atlanta is that they couldn’t stop the run and run the ball. Marcus Mariota ran for 43 yards and passed for 186, but it wasn’t enough.
Sunday, Nov. 13
TAMPA BAY (-1.5) over Seattle 21-16/Under 44.5
The Bucs won this game from Munich, Germany thanks to jumping out to a 14-0 lead and a sturdy defense that held Seattle to just 39 yards. That was the key along with rookie RB Rashaad White’s 105 yards. Tom Brady threw for 258 yards with two TDs and a pick as Tamp Bay improved to 5-5 to lead the awful NFC South. Brady was picked off in the fourth quarter, which was the first INT he had thrown since the season opener. Seattle is 6-4 but had a four-game winning streak snapped.
Detroit (+3) over CHICAGO 31-30/Over 48.5
The Bears showed why they missed Roquan Smith as they allowed 323 yards of offense and Justin Fields threw a costly pick-six to help blow a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead. Jeff Okudah picked off his former Ohio State teammate with 10:29 left in the game to tie the score at 24-all. Field then ran it in for 67 yards, but the extra point was missed by Cairo Santos. Jared Goff led the Lions right down the field, who scored on a 1-yard run by Jamaal Williams with 2:21 left to win the game by a point. Fields ran for 147 yards with two TDs and passed for 167 yards. Detroit’s defense was bad as always, but the offense didn’t turn it over.
KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over Jacksonville 27-17/Under 53.5
Trevor Lawrence played one of his better games for the Jags, tossing for 259 yards with two TDs, but it wasn’t enough. Patrick Mahomes played like the MVP, tossing for 331 yards with four TDs and a pick. The problem for the Chiefs is that they have injury issues at wide receiver, as Mecole Hardman is now on the IR with an illness/abdomen. The Jags couldn’t slow down the Chiefs’ running game (155 yards). WR Christian Kirk had a big game with 9 catches for 105 yards and two TDs for Jacksonville.
PITTSBURGH (-1) over New Orleans 20-10/Under 39.5
T.J. Watt returned and the Saints scored just 10 points. Coincidence? No. Andy Dalton threw two more picks for a Saints’ team that could use a top draft pick to draft a QB. The Steelers held the Saints to 29 yards rushing and just 10 first downs. Pittsburgh amassed 28 first downs and ran for 217 yards. RB Najee Harris ran for 99 yards, while rookie QB Kenny Pickett passed for 199 yards and ran for a score. The Steelers improved to 3-6 and could still make a run in the AFC North if they can run the ball and control the clock.
MIAMI (-3.5) over Cleveland 39-17/Over 49
This is one of those games that turned on a Nick Chubb fumble in the first half and the Browns never recovered. Their defense was destroyed by Tua Tagovailoa and company who compiled 195 yards rushing and 296 passing. He thew for three TDs, while former 49ers running backs Jeff Wilson Jr. (119 yds) and Rahim Mostert (65 yds) combined for 184 yards and two TDs. Cleveland was held to 185 passing yards as Deshaun Watson gets closer to Week 12, when he’ll start at quarterback after a long hiatus due to a suspension and sitting out in Houston last season.
Minnesota (+6.5) over BUFFALO 33-30ot/Over 54.5
This had to be the game of the year. One name-Justin Jefferson. The superstar receiver had a spectacular one-handed grab for 32 yards on a fourth-and-18 play to keep the final drive of regulation alive. Josh Allen, playing with an injured right elbow, once again, struggled with critical interceptions in the red zone, including one in the fourth quarter as the Bills went for it on 4th-and-2. Allen did throw for 339 yards and a TD and ran for 84 yards. Kirk Cousins threw for 357 yards (30-5), but also threw two picks. Dalvin Cook ran for 119 yards and a score for the Vikings.
TENNESSEE (-2.5) over Denver 17-10/Under 39
This was a predictably low-scoring and boring affair. Ryan Tannehill returned from an ankle injury to threw for 255 yards and two TDs. Nick Westbook-Ikhine had five catches for 119 yards and two scores for the Titans. Russell Wilson tossed for 286 yards and a TD to rookie Jalen Virgil, but also had a pick. WR Jerry Jeudy suffered an ankle injury on the Broncos’ first snap of the game. The Titans improved to 6-3 on the season and in control of the AFC South.
NY GIANTS (-4.5) over Houston 24-16/Under 41.5
New York just finds a way to win and it starts with the run. Saquon Barkley rushed for 152 yards and a TD. QB Daniel Jones is just taking care of the football and the Giants are winning. The completed 13 of 17 for 197 yards with two TDs and no picks. Davis Mills threw for 319 yards with a TD and an INT for the Texans. Rookie Dameon Pierce ran for 94 yards for Houston who keeps playing competitive football for Lovie Smith as they fell to 1-7-1.
Indianapolis (+4) over LAS VEGAS 25-20/Over 41.5
Jeff Saturday’s debut as a head coach was a success for the Colts. They went back to Matt Ryan at quarterback and he rewarded them with 222 yards, one TD passing and one rushing. Jonathan Taylor was also healthy and rushed for 147 yards including a 66-yard TD. The Raiders are well the Raiders. They can’t stop the run or pass and they struggle to run the football (77 yards) consistently. They fell to 2-7, but more bad news for Raiders fans, as head coach Josh McDaniels appears to be safe for at least one more season.
GREEN BAY (+3.5) over Dallas 31-28/Over 44.5
Here’s another classic game and a tough one for Dallas bettors. The Cowboys blew a 28-14 lead in the fourth quarter as Aaron Rodgers found rookie receiver Christian Watson for two late TDs. Mason Crosby nailed a chip shot field goal in overtime for the win. Dallas’ run defense was awful as the allowed 207 yards and 415 overall to an offense that had been struggling. Dak Prescott threw for 265 yards, but also two critical picks. Zeke Elliott is expected to return this week to help the Dallas running game, which has been fine with Tony Pollard (115 yds), but can use a red-zone threat.
Arizona (+3.5) over LA RAMS 27-17/Over 36.5
Who took this over in this game with two backup quarterbacks? This wasn’t exactly a shootout, but Colt McCoy got the job done with 238 yards passing and one TD. RB James Conner added 69 yards rushing and two scores. John Woolford, filling in for Matthew Stafford, tossed for 212 yards and one TD, but also one pick. Stafford will be back this week from a concussion, but the Rams lost star WR Cooper Kupp for a few weeks due to an ankle injury. They also fell to 3-6 while the Cardinals improved to 4-6. Arizona may stay with McCoy for another week as Kyle Murray (hamstring) is expected to miss another game.
LA Chargers (+7.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 16-22/Under 45.5
The Chargers managed to cover this game despite not scoring in the second half. They were up 16-10 before the 49ers’ offense woke up. Elijah Mitchell picked up the slack for Christian McCaffrey with 89 yards rushing as it looks like both backs will split reps. But it’s the San Francisco defense that wins games. They held the Chargers to just 12 first downs and Justin Herbert to 196 yards. Herbert could finally be getting WRs Keenan Allen back this week along with Mike Williams from injuries.
Monday, November 14, 2022
Washington (+11.5) over PHILADELPHIA 32-21/OVER 42.5
Washington did score a late TD with seconds left on a gadget play by the Eagles, but the game was already “over”. This was one of the most stunning upsets of the year as backup QB Taylor Heinicke engineered a win over an undefeated team on the road by throwing for 211 yards with a pick. But the key was the Commanders’ ability to run the football against Philly with no DT Jordan Davis (152 yards). The Eagles struggled to throw the ball and fumbled the ball three times including one by TE Dallas Goedert, who was injured on a missed facemask call. Goedert will now spend time on the IR with a shoulder injury.