NFL Week 12 Betting Recap
NFL Week 12 Betting Recap
Hope everyone had a profitable holiday! We enter Week 13, so let’s take a look at some of the betting implications from last week’s games from Thursday-Monday
(closing lines) (Home team in caps)
Thursday, Nov. 24
DETROIT (+9) over Buffalo 25-28/Under 54.5
Tough loss for the total here if you had the over. Detroit kicker Michael Badgley missed a short FG which cost the over bettors. It didn’t help that Josh Allen (24 of 42) once again threw a pick in the red zone. He did run for 78 yards and a TD and threw for 253 yards. Defensively, Buffalo was not very good allowing 96 yards on the ground and 230 in the air. The Lions fumbled twice and suffered a safety in the third quarter. They still find ways to lose, but they are getting close.
NY Giants (+10) over DALLAS 20-28/Over 45.5
Another close game when it came to the total, but the backdoor was wide open in this one as the Giants covered with eight seconds left when Daniel Jones hit Richie James for a one-yard TD pass. Dallas ran all over the Giants (169 yards) and Dak Prescott threw for 261 yards and two TDs, but also had two picks. The Giants struggled to run the ball (90yds), but hung in the game because they did not turn the ball over.
MINNESOTA (-2.5) over New England 33-26/Over 41.5
There were a lot more points in this one than expected. There was no “Prime Time” Kirk Cousins in this game. He threw for 299 yards with three TDs and a pick. WR Justin Jefferson was great as usual with nine catches for 139 yards and a TD. Even Mac Jones threw for 382 yards and two TDs against a shaky Vikes’ secondary. Minnesota didn’t dominate this game as they needed a field goal and a Cousins to Adam Thielen TD in the fourth quarter to win.
Sunday, Nov. 27
JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over Baltimore 28-27/Over 43.5
This had one of the craziest endings of the day as Baltimore (once again) blew a nine-point fourth quarter lead and Trevor Lawrence threw a 10-yard TD pass to Marvin Jones with 14 seconds left. The Ravens led 19-10 with 13:07 left in the game on a Gus Edwards run. But he would fumble later on, setting up a short field goal. Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 32 for 254 yards and a TD and ran for 89 yards. Trevor Lawrence completed 29 of 37 for 321 yards with three TDs and no picks.
CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Tampa Bay 23-17ot/Under 42.5
Another wild game on Sunday. Jacoby Brissett, in his last start with the Browns, hit Amari Cooper for a 45-yard pass inn overtime and Nick Chubb ran it in from three-yards out to get the win. Brissett also hit David Njoku for a 12-yard TD pass with 32 seconds left. Tom Brady completed 29 of 43 for 246 yards and two TDs. The Bucs’ offense committed no turnovers, but they couldn’t stop the run (189 yards) on defense. It’s finally Deshaun Watson time in Cleveland as they face his former team Houston.
CAROLINA (+1) over Denver 23-10/Under 36
The Panthers went back to Sam Darnold at quarterback. He wasn’t special (11 of 19, 164yds), but ran for a TD and passed for one. The Panthers’ defense continues to shine under interim coach Steve Wilkes. D’Onta Foreman ran for 113 yards to lead the Panthers, who had 185 rushing yards. Denver ran for 121 yards, led by 92 from Latavius Murray. Russell Wilson continues to struggle as he completed 19 of 35 for 142 yards and a TD. The Broncos didn’t help themselves with two fumbles. They also scored no TDs until 3:19 left on a one-yard Wilson pass to Brandon Johnson.
MIAMI (-14) over Houston 30-15/Under 47.5
This game was over in the first half when the Dolphins took a 30-0 lead but it never went OVER because Miami coasted in the second half and did not score a point. At 1-9-1 Houston switched from Davis Miss to Kyle Allen at quarterback and the results were the same. He completed 26 of 39 for 215 yards and a TD, but also had two picks. A big problem for Miami’s offense occurred in the second quarter when left tackle Terron Armstead left the game with pec injury. In the half, Tua Tagovailoa was sacked four times. Armstead is considered questionable for their game on Sunday against the 49ers.
Cincinnati (-1) over TENNESSEE 20-16/Under 42.5
This was another very tight game. Joe Burrow threw for 270 yards and they received 93 yards from scrimmage from backup RB Samaje Perine to lead the Bengals to the tough road win. Considering they didn’t have WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip) and RB Joe Mixon (concussion), that was an impressive win. They needed the defense to slow down Derrick Henry (38 yds rushing), though the pass defense gave up 291 in the air to Ryan Tannehill. The Titans didn’t help themselves with eight penalties for 57 yards including DT Kevin Strong hit on a long snapper on a Cincy FG attempt with two minutes left that turned into an automatic first down.
NY JETS (-7.5) over Chicago 31-10/Over 36.5
This wasn’t a shocking win for the Jets, but it showed that maybe they should have gone to Mike White at QB earlier. Now the Bears defense is not good but it’s a start. He threw for 315 yards and three TDs, including two scores to rookie WR Garrett Wilson. The Bears produced just 14 first downs with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, He completed 14 of 25 for 179 yards with one TD and one pick. Fields (shoulder) was a full participant in practice on Thursday so it appears he will return to action.
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Atlanta 19-13/Under 40.5
Washington’s defense continues to shine. The offense struggled and the Commanders needed a Kendall Fuller interception in the end zone with 1:03 left to beat the pesky Falcons. Washington has now won six of their last seven games. The defense did give up 167 rushing yards, but they held Atlanta to just one TD. Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke threw for just 138 yards with two TDs and a pick. RB Brian Robinson carried the ball 18 times for 105 yards.
Las Vegas (+4.5) over SEATTLE 40-34ot/Over 51.5
This was another exciting game where the Seahawks’ defense was exposed and Josh Jacobs won the game for the Raiders. Jacobs ran it in from 86 yards out with 4:20 left in overtime to lead Vegas over the Seahawks on the road. QB Geno Smith did his part, going 27 of 37 for 328 yards and two TDs. But Jacobs outshined everyone with Jacobs getting 229 yards rushing on 33 attempts. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 for 295 yards with three TDs and two INTs. The Raiders did slow down Seattle’s rushing attack (65 yards) and produced 576 yards of offense.
LA Chargers (-3.5) over ARIZONA 25-24/Over 48.5
The total in this one was tougher than the side, though both were difficult. Austin Ekeler on a short pass from Justin Herbert with 15 seconds left. That made the score 24-23 Arizona, but Brandon Staley decided to go for two and Herbert hit Gerald Everett for the pass to get the conversion. Herbert was on target, completing 35 of 47 for 274 yards with three TDs. Kyler Murray’s return was somewhat productive as he threw for 191 yards with two TDs and a pick. He ran for 56 yards and a TD. James Conner also had a strong game with 120 yards rushing.
KANSAS CITY (-15.5) over LA Rams 26-10/Under 40.5
Another game where the line was close. The Chiefs’ Harrison Butker kicked two short field goals in the last 6:36 to get the cover. It was not a pretty game for Patrick Mahomes (320yds, 1 TD, 1 INT) and the Chiefs, who were facing a decimated Rams’ team missing Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. Bryce Perkins passed for 100 yards with one TD and two picks. He also led the team in rushing yards with 44. The Rams produced just 198 total yards.
SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5) over New Orleans 13-0/Under 44.5
It’s been a long year in New Orleans. They hung in this game because of their defense but still fell to 4-8. This was not a strong game for Jimmy G. and the 49ers. He threw for 222 yards and a TD. The ground attack never really got going. The 49ers were held to 96 rushing yards on 29 carries. Andy Dalton threw for 204 yards but had no help from the running game (63 yds). Alvin Kamara had a crucial fumble of a pass reception as the Saints were driving inside the 10.
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over Green Bay 40-33/Over 46.5
This was a wild one on Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers and his broken thumb was held to 140 yards with his two TDs and two picks. He later suffered an oblique injury and was replaced by Jordan Love, who threw for 113 yards and a TD. Jalen Hurts ran for more yards (157) than he did passing (153). But did have two passing TDs. The Eagles ran all over Green Bay with 363 yards, but the Eagles’ defense did allow 342 yards. The Packers fell to 4-8 and are now 1-6 on the road.
Monday, Nov. 28
Pittsburgh (+2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS 24-17/Over 39.5
This was not a classic matchup between two subpar teams, but it was competitive. The Steelers jumped on the Colts with 16 first-half points before blowing a 16-3 lead in the third quarter. They won the game on a Benny Snell 2-yard run and a two-point conversion. The Steelers ran for 172 yards thanks to a variety of runners led by Snell (62 yds) as starter Najee Harris (35yds) struggled with injuries. Matt Ryan completed 22 of 34 for 199 yards with a TD and a pick. Rookie Kenny Pickett completed 20 of 28 for 174 yards.