NFL Week 7 Betting Recap
NFL Week 7 Betting Recap
There were upsets, expected chalk wins and blowouts when people thought the game would be close. Let’s take a look at each game from Week 7 and look at the betting implications that occurred and may also affect the line in Week 7 and beyond.
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(closing lines) (Home team in caps)
Thursday, October 19, 2023
Jacksonville (+2.5/40.5) over NEW ORLEANS 31-24
This was a close game in the fourth quarter, because the Saints’ offense finally woke up. Taysom Hill and Michael Thomas both had touchdowns to tie the game at 24-24. Trevor Lawrence hit Christian Kirk for 44 yards out with 3:08 to get the game-winner. Lawrence threw for 204 yards and one TD and led the team in rushing yards with 59. Travis Etienne rushed for 53 and scored two TDs. Derek Carr went 33 of 55 for 301 yards with a TD and a pick. New Orleans won the time of possession battle at 36:10 to 23:50.
Sunday, October 22, 2023
NEW ENGLAND (+7.5/41.5) over Buffalo 29-25
Mac Jones led the Patriots in this one with 272 yards (25 of 30) and two TDs. The Patriots jumped out to a 10-0 lead and led 13-3 at the half. The Bills took the lead with 1:58 left on a Josh Allen 1-yard run to make it 25-22 Buffalo. But Jones drove New England down the field and connected with TE Mike Gesicki from one-yard out with 12 seconds left to give them the victory. Bufalo not only lost the game but starting TE Dawson Knox, who will undergo wrist surgery. Bill Belichick got his 300th regular-season victory with the win to join legends Don Shula (328) and George Halas (318).
Atlanta (+3/37.5) over TAMPA BAY 16-13
We got an ugly NFC South game unless you had the road dog and the under. Younghoe Koo booted a 51-yard field goal as time expert to get the win for the Falcons, but this should have been much easier. Instead, Desmond Ridder lost three fumbles including one at the goal line. Tyler Allgeier had a full workload at running back with 59 yards on 21 carries and 53 yards receiver for Atlanta. Rookie Bijan Robinson did not play due to illness, though the Falcons didn’t report it. QB Baker Mayfield threw for 275 yards with 32 rushing yards, a TD and a pick. But he threw 42 passes as the running game for the Bucs continues to be irrelevant.
CHICAGO (+2.5/38.5) over Las Vegas 30-12
The Bears and rookie Tyson Bagent upset the Raiders at home, who just decided not to show up. In a battle of old backups (Brian Hoyer) and a young one (Bagent), the Bears had the edge as Hoyer, in for injured Jimmy Garoppolo (back), threw for 129 yards and two picks. Rookie Aidan O’Connell came in and completed 10 of 13 for 75 yards with a TD and a pick. Bagent, an undrafted free agent from Division II Shepherd, was playing because starter Justin Fields was out with a thumb injury. He was a pedestrian 21 of 29 for 162 yards and a TD and also ran for 24 yards, but he took care of the football. The Raiders allowed 173 yards on the ground despite the fact that Chicago was playing without Khalil Herbert due to injury. D’Onta Foreman stepped up with 89 yards and two TDs.
BALTIMORE (-3/43.5) over Detroit 38-6
In what was supposed to be one of the top games of the day, was a dud. Coming off a game in London, Baltimore was super sharp, outscoring the Lions 35-0 in the first three quarters. Lamar Jackson completed 21 of 27 for 357 yards with three TDs and ran for 36 yards with a score. Jackson spread it out to rookie Zay Flowers (4 catches for 75 yards) and TD Mark Andrew (4 for 63 yds, 2 TDs). Running back Gus Edwards also caught one short pass and took it 80 yards to lead towards another Ravens score. The Lions just never got it going on offense. Jared Goff threw for 284 yards and was picked off once, but was running for his life for most of the game. Detroit also missed RB David Montgomery, who was out with a rib injury.
Cleveland (+3.5/39.5) over INDIANAPOLIS 39-38
Another AFC North team that found a way to win on Sunday (along with Pittsburgh), despite having issues everywhere. Cleveland led this game 30-21 early in the third quarter, despite losing Deshaun Watson (potential concussion). He completed just 1 of 5 before that, coming off a shoulder injury. PJ Walker came and was a serviceable 15 of 32 for 178 yards and a pick. How did the Colts blow this game with everything going their way? Gardner Minshew is a backup for a reason. He completed 15 of 23 for 305 yards and two TDs and a pick. He also lost three fumbles including one that Tony Fields picked up in the end zone for the Browns.. DE Myles Garrett had two sacks and nine tackles for the Browns. Cleveland kicker Dustin Hopkins kicked four field goals of 44, 54, 54 and 58. Kareem Hunt scored on a 1-yard TD run with 15 seconds left to give the Browns the win.
NEW YORK GIANTS (+3/36.5) over Washington 14-7
These are teams that are hard to figure out other than they are both bad. Tyrod Taylor, in for the injured Daniel Jones, threw for 279 yards and two TDs, while Saquon Barkley rushed for 77 yards and caught a TD pass to lead the Giants. Amazingly, the Giants had not scored on offense since Sept. 21. But the key was sacking Sam Howell six times including two from Dexter Lawrence. They also had a blocked field goal from Leonard Williams. If you like punts, this game was for you. Washington punted 10 times and had eight three-and-outs. The Commanders had a chance to tie this after a fourth quarter fumble by Barkley. But Howell was pressured and threw an incomplete pass to Jahan Dotson.
SEATTLE (-8.5/43.5) over Arizona 20-10
Seattle won this game despite not having WR DK Metcalf (hip). Rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo stepped up with two TDs passes from Geno Smith in the first half. Smith had 219 yards and a pick, while Kenneth Walker III rushed for 105 yards on 26 carries. Joshua Dobbs completed just 19-of-33 for 146 yards, but the Arizona defense kept them in the game with three forced turnovers. However, they were only able to turn those turnovers into three points. As for the cover? Jason Myers kicked a “clutch” 48-yard field goal with 2:17 left to help Seattle “seal” the win and the cover.
Pittsburgh (+3/43.5) over LA RAMS 24-17
The Steelers just find a way to win. This time they needed defensive help from T.J. Watt, but Kenny Pickett had a solid game for the Steelers. He threw for 230 yards and a TD, while WR Diontae Johnson, returning from a hamstring injury, caught five passes for 79 yards. Rams QB Matthew Stafford threw for 231 yards and a TD, while rookie Puka Nacua added eight catches for 154 yards. Watt’s interception of Stafford gave Pittsburgh the ball at the LAR 7. The Steelers took a 10-9 lead in the second half on a Pickett 1-yard sneak. The Rams couldn’t win this game at home despite being able to run the ball with Royce Freeman (66yds) and Darrell Henderson Jr. (61 yds, 1 TD).
DENVER (-1/44) over Green Bay 19-17
It wasn’t pretty but Denver managed a rare win to get to 2-5 led by four field goals from Will Lutz. Despite the bye and the addition of Aaron Jones (hamstring), Green Bay struggled offensively against a bad defense. They recorded just 100 yards of total offense in the first half and finished with 331 yards. Jones ran for just 35 yards and caught three passes. Jordan Love went 21 of 31 for 180 yards with two TDs and a pick. Russell Wilson completed 29 of 29 for 194 yards and a TD. Javonte Williams ran for 82 yards to lead the Broncos.
KANSAS CITY (-5.5/48.5) over LA Chargers 31-17
Patrick Mahomes had a monster game with 424 yards passing, four TDs and a pick. Travis Kelce caught 12 passes for 179 yards with a TD as the Chiefs won their sixth straight game since losing the opener to Detroit. Justin Hebert completed 17 of 30 for 259 yards and a TD, but also had two picks. WR Joshua Palmer had a big game with five catches for 133 yards. It was the Chargers’ inability to stop the pass that was the culprit. They even ran for 139 yards on 26 carries against a tough KC defense. But with all their talent, the Chargers are 2-4 and the seat is getting warmer for coach Brandon Staley.
PHILADELPHIA (-3/51.5) over Miami 31-17
This was a pretty good Sunday night game that nearly lived up to the hype. Jalen Hurts bounced back after a bad late-game interception against the NY Jets last week to throw for 279 yards with two TDs and a pick, but also ran for 21 yards and a TD. Late in the third quarter, Hurts helped break a 17-17 tie with a 14-yard TD pass to A.J. Brown, who ran through an attempted tackle to get the score. Brown was fantastic with 10 catches for 137 yards. Miami was led by Tua Tagovailoa, who competed 23 of32 passes for 216 yards with a TD and a pick. Tyreek Hill had 11 catches but for just 88. Miami, despite all their weapons and speed, was held to 244 yards. They also committed 10 penalties for 70 yards.
Monday, October 23, 2023
MINNESOTA (+7/44) over San Francisco 22-17
The Vikings stunned the 49ers on Monday night football, thanks to a very sturdy defense and a big night for a quarterback not known for his prime time success. Kirk cousins completed 35 of 45 for 378 yards, two TDs and a pick. Rookie WR Jordan Addison caught seven passes for 123 yards and two TDs. That includes one long TD at the end of the half that he stole from 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward and turned it into a 60-yard TD reception. QB Brock Purdy struggled again, this time throwing two picks, both two safety Camryn Bynum. The good news for the 49ers was that Christian McCaffrey returned from an oblique injury to rush for 45 yards and a TD and caught three passes for 51 yards and a TD. But he also lost a fumble in the first quarter as San Francisco was driving for points.