NY Red Bulls vs. Chicago FIre FC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 8/28/21
New York Red Bulls host Chicago Fire FC on Saturday evening from Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey, in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup. These two teams have already met twice this season, splitting the two games. In May, New York took a 2-0 win at home in a dominating performance. Chicago wasn’t to be outdone in the rematch earlier this month though, scoring two goals in the first ten minutes behind Luka Stojanovic’s brace, to hang on for all three points at home. Only two points separate these two teams as the postseason quickly approaches and New York especially, knows that they can’t afford to not take all three points at home when they have the opportunity. With only the top seven teams qualifying for the MLS Cup Playoffs, both these teams find themselves out of that for now by quite a few points and that issue will be reflected in Saturday’s game. Either way, the Eastern Conference standings could look different by the time Saturday’s game is over and the league will surely be on watch to see how this one turns out.
Red Bulls Consistency A Concern
The New York Red Bulls remain in the playoff hunt but will need a strong finish down the stretch this fall to feel confident going forward. Of late, consistency has been their main issue, going only 1-4-3 in their last eight games. At a time when the cream typically rises to the top, the Red Bulls are struggling to keep pace with the leaders in the Eastern Conference. Even at home over that time span, they’re only 1-2-1 and need to improve on that to make Red Bull Arena a place that teams dread coming to. Through 19 games, New York has 22 points, five points behind Atlanta, and DC United for the seventh spot. Even though both of those two teams have played two more games than New York, being on the outside looking in is still not an ideal situation to be in. New York also only has a minus-one goal differential and is well equipped to quickly change their season around but it all starts at home against Chicago, a team that just beat them a few weeks ago. New York will be able to draw some confidence though from May’s matchup in Harrison, where the Red Bulls were able to come away with a home win.
One issue facing New York of late has been their injury report. According to the league’s availability report, they’ll be without three players, with a fourth questionable to go on Saturday. Aaron Long (Achilles), Youba Diarra (hamstring), and Cristian Casseres (hamstring), remain out, while Cameron Harper (hip), is questionable. Long remains the largest absence, as the former U.S. National Team mainstay has held down the backline for New York for years, doing it so well that he was even linked to a move to Europe just a few years ago. Diarra has yet to appear in a game this season but Casseres has added four goals and will be missed from the attack. Harper only has four appearances himself but the damage will be done on both ends without Long and Casseres for the home side.
The Red Bulls have struggled to find someone who is able to dominate and control the game up top and it shows with their lack of a true scoring leader. Casseres, Caden Clark, and Patryk Klimala, are all tied with four goals each. With Casseres out there and Clark already eyeing his move to Europe at the end of the season, that leaves Klimala as the lone forward aiming to be a mainstay within the team. Fabio is one to keep an eye on though out of the midfield. Not only has he added three goals but he leads the team with six assists and has proven himself to be the main source of creativity for the squad. In the back, Andrew Gutman has European experience and a calming presence, but the inexperience is there without Long to hold them together. In goal will likely be Carlos, who is yet to allow a goal in his last three appearances, but will have a host of opportunities that he’ll need to shut down to get New York all three points.
Chicago Down But Not Out
Chicago remains in the thick of things in regards to the playoffs, assuming that they can get back to the form that they had to start off the month as opposed to the last few weeks. They’re coming off back-to-back losses on the road to Orlando and Miami, after going 1-0-2 in the first three games of the month. That lone win though came over New York and that will be at the forefront of their minds when they take the field on Saturday night. In that game, they were probably outplayed but scored twice early and hung onto the end, a sign of a team growing compared to past years when they would have walked away with a draw or worse. Chicago has 20 points in 21 games, seven points behind the last teams in the playoffs as of today. Unlike New York though, Chicago doesn’t have the luxury of having played fewer games and needs to start grabbing points on the road as opposed to just at home. With a minus-ten goal differential, the time is now for this team to make a final stand.
While their injury report isn’t as daunting as New York’s, Chicago will be dealing with a few players out themselves. Kenneth Kronholm (right knee) and Ignacio Aliseda (left shin) are both expected to miss Saturday’s game and at least Aliseda will prove to be a valuable miss. Sitting second on the team in goal, with three, it’ll be interesting to see how Stojanovic is able to operate as the lone dangerous option. Kronholm has operated as one of the last keepers on the roster, so his absence won’t matter in the scheme of the game.
Stojanovic is the clear leader of the offense behind his seven goals and an assist, but without much help given Aliseda’s injury, he may struggle to be as efficient with his movements and chances. One player to keep an eye on is Jonathan Bornstein, the veteran in the back. At 36, he has the composure but lacks the athleticism that he might need to keep up with new York’s youth movement on the attacking side of things. Alvaro Medran (five assists) and Boris Sekulic (four assists), have been the main creators in the midfield and will need to be on top of their game to break down lines and take advantage of opportunities against New York.
Pick: Red Bulls (-110)
Chicago has already proven themselves to struggle this season on the road and now they’ll be looking at their straight road game of the month. They dropped the first two and it appears that they’ll drop the third in New York as well. The Red Bulls might be missing a little more in terms of injuries but they also have quite more depth than Chicago and that’ll show through on Saturday. Clark has been one of the best young players in the league and will have a nice game at home. New York has already beaten Chicago at home once this year and even in the game that they dropped a few weeks ago, they completely outplayed Chicago and were more unlucky than anything else. Expect the luck and bounces to fall back into their favor at home as they grab all three points behind their dynamic and athletic offense and move closest onwards to the cluster of playoff contenders.
Pick: Under
Both these teams enter battling some injuries on both sides of things but the offense is sure to take on the largest impact. Chicago will be without Aliseda, leaving the attack to their own devices and the opportunity for New York to really focus on only slowing down Stojanovic. For New York, no Long on set pieces and then being without their co-leading scorer in Casseres will be tough to deal with as well. Both games this year failed to go over three goals between the two teams and Saturday will be similar. For New York, more than three goals combined hasn’t been scored since their July 31st game, while it’s only happened once in their last seven games for Chicago.