NY Red Bulls vs. DC United Prediction, Preview and Odds - 9/11/21

Eastern Conference foes will face off on Saturday night when D.C. United visits the New York Red Bulls in one of MLS’ fiercest rivalries. D.C. United is currently holding on to a playoff spot at seventh in the East at 9-3-10 after earning an impressive 3-1 home win over the Philadelphia Union back on August 28 to cash in as a +139 underdog. New York has slumped to 12th place at 6-10-4 after dropping a 1-0 contest to the Chicago Fire two weekends ago as a -131 home favorite.

These teams met back in late July, with D.C. United winning 1-0 at home. D.C. United leads the long-standing rivalry 42-20-33 all-time.

D.C. United in playoff position after huge win

An inconsistent season for D.C. United is back on the upswing after they turned in a strong 3-1 victory two weeks ago over a Philadelphia Union team that is near the top of the table before heading into an international break. After an own goal gave Philadelphia the early lead, but Ola Kamara equalized on a penalty in the 36th minute before Yordy Reyna scored the go-ahead tally early in the second half, and Ramon Abila’s stoppage time goal ensured all three points.

Possession finished about even, yet D.C. United made more of it with nine of its 14 attempts going on target, while goalkeeper Jon Kempin only had to make two saves. Felipe Campanholi Martins was credited with an assist despite only playing 10 minutes, as just about everyone on D.C. United played well outside of Steve Birnbaum's own goal.

“It was very necessary before the break,” manager Hernan Losada said to The Washington Post. “The boys showed a lot of character and a lot of personality, and that makes me very happy.”

D.C. United has maintained a high-level offense all season with an average of 1.59 goals on 13.77 shots per match. Defense has been a different story with opponents racking up 1.45 goals and 10.04 shots per match, with D.C. United keeping six clean sheets.

Kamara has been one of the most prolific players in all of MLS with 12 goals and two assists to lead the D.C. United offense. Julian Gressel has dished out a team-high four assists, while Paul Arriola has three goals and two helpers while putting up strong advanced metrics.

D.C. United is dealing with some injury woes, starting with top goalkeeper Bill Hamid, who is questionable for Saturday’s game with a hamstring problem. Two key defenders could also remain out, with Donovan Pines (foot) and Brendan Hines-Ike (hip) missing time recently.

Red Bulls fall further out of the playoff picture in ugly loss

New York has just one win over its last seven matches while stumbling all the way to 12th place in the East after a tough 1-0 home loss to a bad Chicago team heading into the international break. On a night where neither offense generated a ton of dangerous chances, Robert Beric’s goal in the 32nd minute was counted following review after initially being ruled offside, as the Red Bulls couldn’t get anything on target to ensure Chicago its first road win since 2019.

The Red Bulls held 59% possession and dominated 20-9 in total shots but just two of those went on goal. Keeper Carlos Miguel Coronel made three nice stops while denying numerous chances for the Fire to at least keep things competitive.

"We cannot score," manager Gerhard Struber said to New York’s official webiste. "We had some good moments, but in the end, I miss killers. We cannot be happy with this game and especially with this result in the end."

Struber’s comments about the offense ring true, as the Red Bulls are averaging just 1.15 goals per game on an average of 14.15 shots per match. New York’s been much stronger on the defensive end, allowing 1.25 goals and 103.5 shots per match while keeping six clean sheets.

Patryk Klimala is having a standout season to lead the Red Bulls offense with four goals and four assists. Fabio has dished out a team-high six goals while scoring three times, while star teenager Caden Clark has four goals and two assists.

The Red Bulls are down some key players, including midfielder Cristian Casseres Jr., who is tied for the team lead with four goals but currently has a hamstring injury. Top defender Aaron Long played five matches before a season-ending Achilles injury. Midfielder Youba Diarra (hamstring) and striker Cameron Harper (hip) are also out.

Side prediction: D.C. United +195

Total: Under 2.5 (+105)

The mood of these two teams was drastically different heading into the two-week break, as D.C. United managed to beat one of the best teams in MLS while the Red Bulls lost at home in a game they absolutely needed to win. It’s just not clear where the offense is going to come from for New York while D.C. United’s high-powered attack is tough to hold off forever, giving the visitors great value to win at plus odds.

D.C. United ranks sixth in all of MLS with a mark of 1.68 expected goals per game, and only got better last month with the addition of Ablia from Minnesota United, as he’s done great work as a substitute to take some of the pressure off of Kamara. New York doesn’t have the top-end playmaking ability to match that especially with Casseres injured, and the Red Bulls are indeed averaging only 0.71 goals per game during their current seven-match slide.

While the defensive stats don’t look great for D.C. United on the surface, it actually the advanced metrics of a top 10 unit as opponents don’t generate a high volume of shots, and it sounds like Pines will at least play some on Saturday which is a huge boost. The Red Bulls have certainly shown they are vulnerable at home lately, and D.C. United will build momentum from its win last time out.

The first meeting between these two rivals produced one goal, and while D.C. United’s offense is tricky to stop, both squads have underrated defenses. Even if the Red Bulls come under a lot of pressure in this one, the good news is that Coronel has been in fantastic form in goal the last few matches, and New York’s defense as a whole is strong with 1.28 expected goals allowed per game to rank fourth in MLS.

D.C. United is even one spot ahead in that same metric with a mark of 1.26, and some positive regression could start in this match as New York is relying far too much on the 18-year-old Clark to carry the offense. The Red Bulls could easily get blanked here, and D.C. United won’t put enough past Coronel to hit the over.