NY Red Bulls vs. Kansas City Prediction, Preview and Odds- 4/17/21

Opening weekend of the 2021 MLS season will feature an interconference clash between New York Red Bulls and Sporting Kansas City on Saturday night at Red Bull Arena. New York Red Bulls are coming off a sixth-place finish in the Eastern Conference at 9-5-9 and lost in the first round of the playoffs to the eventual champion Columbus Crew. Kansas City finished atop the West in the regular season at 12-3-6, but was bounced in the second round of the postseason by Minnesota United.

These teams haven’t met since April of 2019, when they battled to a 2-2 draw.

Sporting Kansas City among West favorites again

Kansas City had the best record in a competitive Western Conference last season and will be a postseason contender again, although it hopes for things to go a littler better in the playoffs this time. After allowing six goals in two playoff games last year, Kansas City made a few moves to shore up the defense in the offseason, and returns much of the attacking core that made it a strong team both by the record and advanced metrics in 2021.

Things certainly won’t be exactly the same, however, as center back and club legend Matt Besler signed with Austin FC after 12 seasons in Kansas City. Forward Gerso Fernandes is also off to the Korean League after 100 appearances for the club and Kansas City couldn’t agree on a contract with attacker Felipe Gutierrez after he scored 19 goals in 2018-19 before missing all of last season with an injury.

To improve the central defense, Kansas City brought in center back Nicolas Ismiat-Mirin, who is a 10-year veteran of some of the best leagues in Europe and won three Dutch Eredivisie titles with PSV Eindhoven. Newcomer Remi Walter should also be in the starting 11 as a defensive midfielder, and has five seasons of experience playing in France’s Ligue 1 at just 25 years old.

Winger Alan Pulido figures to be the team’s best outfield player after racking up six goals and five assists last season despite missing some time with injuries and international duty. Forward Johnny Russell takes over the captain’s armband from Besler, and has been productive in three seasons for Kansas City with 25 goals and 15 assists in 79 appearances.

Kansas City had the fifth-most prolific offense in MLS last season with an average of 1.81 goals per game. Opponents scored 1.19 goals per game against Kansas City, although the defensive unit struggled in the playoffs after looking great over the last few regular season matches.

Injuries are going to play a major impact in Kansas City’s opener, as stalwart goaltender Tim Meila has been ruled out for undisclosed reasons, and second-string keeper Kendall McIntosh also won’t play. Pulido is going to play but reportedly isn’t healthy enough to go 90 minutes. Veteran midfielder Graham Zusi is out after undergoing foot surgery.

New-look Red Bulls hope to extend playoff streak

New York is one of the most consistent franchises in MLS with 11 straight postseason appearances and three Supporters’ Shields during that span, but a championship has remained elusive and the club made major changes this offseason after back-to-back sixth-place finishes in the East. Head coach Tim Armas is out after three seasons, with Gerhard Struber taking over after managing English Championship club Barnsley FC for two years.

Struber is known for his high-press tactics and New York will have several new starters who will fit the system better with a few offseason acquisitions and young players joining the lineup. Key departures including center backs Tim Parker and Patrick Seagrist being traded to the Houston Dynamo and Inter Miami respectively, while midfielder Marc Rzatkowski had his option declined.

Striker Fabio Roberto Gomes Netto is the big addition after being one of the more prolific goal scorers in the Brazilian second division last season. Defender Andres Reyes and attacking fullback Tom Edwards both figure to get plenty of playing time after being brought in on loan. A number of youngsters and academy callups are in the mix, headlined by 18-year-old Venezuelan midfielder Wikelman Carmona.

As far as returning players go, center back Aaron Long is back and figures to be one of the best defenders in MLS again. New York hopes 21-year-old Cristian Casseres Jr. and 17-year-old Caden Clark will take another step forward in the midfield, as both have looked good in their early careers.

New York will hope the new-look lineup can lead to some more creative offense, as it averaged 1.26 goals per game a season ago. Opponents scored 1.35 goals per game against New York, as the club had a negative goal differential despite finishing with the 12th-best record in MLS.

There are no official injury reports coming out of camp for New York ahead of Saturday’s opener.

Side prediction: Kansas City +175

This is a different style of Red Bulls team we’ve seen for much of the last decade, as the club is going to have to rely on tactics and chemistry instead of relying on superior talent. Those things might not quite be up to speed in the first game of the season with a new coaching staff in, and Kansas City is being undervalued here despite being one of the best MLS teams last regular season.

How much the defense improves will determine if Kansas City is a title contender, but Isimat-Mirin and Walter are certain to be at least some upgrade as they have several years of experiences in tougher European leagues. The Kansas City attack figures to be sharp again with a number of playmakers like Russell and Gadi Kinda in the lineup, and while Pulido isn’t at full strength, he managed to be productive last season while dealing with constant injuries.

There’s potential with this New York team, but it doesn’t have many proven players either in attack or defense, and the jump from Brazil’s second division to MLS will be a challenge for the new striker Netto. Kansas City was the better team last season and has far more continuity, giving it plenty of value to win outright at these odds.

Total prediction: Over 2.5 (-130)

There’s no way to tell if the remade New York roster will be stronger offensively or defensively at first, but this could be a good tactical matchup for the highly-regarded Struber. Kansas City’s defense was gashed in transition last season, and New York’s high-pressure system could be able to force some turnovers and start the break.

Throw in the fact that Kansas City is starting a third-string goaltender in John Pulskamp who has never played in an MLS match, and New York will be able to put at least one in the net here. Kansas City should do plenty of damage against the Red Bulls defense, as they graded out as one of the best offenses in MLS by the expected goals metric in 2020 and was scoring well over two goals per game for the final month of the regular season before running into a tough Minnesota United team.