NY Red Bulls vs. New England Revolution Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 7/31/21
A pair of Eastern Conference teams heading in opposite directions will square off on Saturday evening when the New England Revolution visit the New York Red Bulls in a rivalry showdown. New England currently owns MLS’ best record at 10-3-3 after taking down the Montreal Impact 2-1 last Sunday to hit as a big -224 favorite. The Red Bulls are down in ninth place as their cold streak continued with a 1-0 loss to D.C. United last weekend as a +208 underdog to fall to 5-3-6 overall.
This is the third meeting between these clubs in 2021, with New England winning the first two meetings by scorelines of 3-1 and 3-2. New England now leads the long-standing rivalry 34-25-27 all-time.
New England wins third straight thanks to Bou’s brace
The Revolution now lead the race for the Supporters’ Shield after taking down red-hot Montreal 2-1 last weekend in Foxborough. Gustavo Bou was the difference-maker, as he opened the scoring with an impressive 25-yard shot in the 29th minute before adding another in the 73rd, and New England managed to hang on despite Montreal pulling one back shortly after while putting plenty of pressure on the Revolution net the rest of the way.
Montreal controlled the run of play, outshooting New England 20-13 while holding 59% possession as the Revolution sat back some after getting the lead. Arnór Ingvi Traustason and Brandon Bye each provided assists for the Revolution, while goaltender Brad Knighton made three saves including including a tricky stop on a Montreal shot deep in stoppage time.
New England has the best offense in MLS by a numbers of statistics, as it is piling up 1.88 goals per game on an average of 14.06 shots. While not quite on that elite level, the Revolution defense has also been good, allowing 1.18 goals and 13.93 shots per match while keeping five clean sheets, including two straight prior to the last game.
Bou has been one of the most productive players in the entire league with nine goals and three assists, while striker Adam Buksa has scored seven times. Midfielder Carles Gil is an MLS MVP candidate, as he has recorded two goals and eight assists while standing out as the driving force behind the potent Revolution offense.
Buksa left the previous came after a clash of heads in the first half, and his status is still unknown. The Revolution are further shorthanded by international duty, as forward Tajon Buchanan and top goalkeeper Matt Turner played in the semifinals of the Gold Cup on Thursday.
Red Bulls blanked as winless streak reaches three games
New York is now out of playoff position with just six points in its last six games, as an uninspiring stretched continued with a 2-1 loss at D.C. United last Sunday in a rivalry matchup. It was a cagey match as the game’s first shot came 27 minutes in, producing a Ola Kamara goal for D.C. United, and the Red Bulls could do little to respond with no attempts on target until the 54th minute, when Cristian Casseres Jr.’s close-range effort stood out as New York’s only dangerous chance of the night.
The Red Bulls held the majority of the possession at 61%, but that produced only four shots as D.C. United’s more clinical first half was the difference. Carlos Miguel Coronel made only one save for the Red Bulls on the night, as neither team recorded a shot between the 54th and 89th minutes.
As expected from a mid-table team, the Red Bulls are just about league average in every facet, as they are putting up 1.29 goals and 13.14 shots per match. Opponents are putting up an average of 1.21 goals and 9.71 shots per game against the Red Bulls, who have kept four clean sheets on the season.
Casseres Jr. and promising 18-year-old Caden Clark lead the Red Bulls with four goals apiece. Patryk Kimala has been a strong playmaker for New York with three goals and four assists, while Fabio has dished out a team-high five helpers.
While the Red Bulls don’t have any players on international duty, there are some injury concerns, as key center back Aaron Long is out for the year with an Achilles problem. Fellow defenders Andrew Gutman (knee) and Sean Nealis (thigh) are considered questionable for Saturday. Midfielders Daniel Royar (thigh) and Youba Diarra (hamstring) are unlikely to play.
Side prediction: New England Revolution +200
Total: Over 3 (+110)
These are great odds to back the team with the best record in MLS, as even though Red Bull Arena isn’t an easy place to win, New England has played at a far superior level to New York all season. New England has dominated the Red Bulls injury-depleted defense in two meetings this year, and the New York’s offense isn’t in good enough form to make up for it.
The Revolution have piled up 27.2 expected goals this season, 5.3 of which came in the two meetings against the Red Bulls, as dealing with Gil and Bou is a difficult ask for any defense in MLS right now. That’s particularly true of the Red Bulls, who don’t give up much in terms of possession or chances but have not received good goaltending this season, and the defense isn’t the same without an elite center back in Long.
New York has recorded just four goals total in its last five games, and with middling advanced stats for the year, just can’t keep up with a Revolution team that has so much firepower. While this won’t be as easy as the two home matches against the Red Bulls, backing New England at plus odds is a smart bet against just about anyone right now
One key factor for the Revolution right now is the absence of Turner, who has been outstanding in the Gold Cup for the United States, and New York did manage to score twice even against a full strength New England defense last month. Clark is the player to watch here as his pace makes him a tough cover for anyone, and the Revolution defense is far from perfect with 20.3 expected goals allowed on the season.
Buksa’s injury is concerning, but the Revolution have a good amount of forward depth to make up for it, and Bou is on an absolute roll right now. New England should be able to put multiple goals past the Red Bulls again, but keeping a clean sheet will be tough.
