NY Red Bulls vs. Toronto FC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/8/21

Two Eastern Conference heavyweights will look to get their seasons going when the New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC on Saturday afternoon. New York is off to a shaky 1-0-2 start, although it got in the win column last weekend with a 2-0 home win over the Chicago Fire to cash in as a +113 underdog. Toronto is searching for its first victory at 0-1-1 after a 2-2 tie against the Vancouver Whitecaps at home on April 24, with the draw hitting at -118 odds.

These teams met twice last season, with the two playing to a 1-1 draw in mid-October before New York picked up a 2-1 home win over Toronto three weeks later.

Toronto hopes to solve defensive woes

Problems in central defense led to an early exit last postseason for Toronto FC, and there are still plenty of questions with six goals allowed in two matches to start 2021. In its most recent MLS contest two weekends ago, Toronto was up early on a seventh-minute goal from Luke Singh and was in command until Vancouver scored twice in 15 minutes including on a penalty kick in the 55th, before Jonathan Osorio salvaged a point with an 82nd minute strike off the bench.

Toronto had a slight advantage with 53% possession and outshot the Whitecaps 12-8, although six of Vancouver's shots were on target leading to a busy day for goaltender Alex Bono. Since that match, Toronto has also played in the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Champions League, losing 4-1 to Cruz Azul on aggregate.

As Toronto lost to CF Montreal 4-2 to open the season, it is averaging two goals and 12 shots per game. Opponents are putting up three goals on 10 shots per game against Toronto, and it’s no surprise that each of its first two matches have gone over the betting total.

Richie Laryea and Marky Delgado had the goals for Toronto on opening weekend, while Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty has the only assist for the club so far. Osorio has only played 30 minutes in the two games due to injury, but leads Toronto in expected goals by a healthy amount at 1.24.

Toronto will be down at least one key player, as reigning MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo has already been ruled out with a thigh injury. Forward Jozy Altidore did not play on Tuesday against Cruz Azul due to an illness, but should be ready to go on Saturday. New designated player addition Yeferson Soteldo is expecting to start practicing with the team this week, but won’t be ready to play this weekend.

New York picks up first win with strong all-around effort

It’s been a rocky start to the Gerhard Struber era for New York, but the Red Bulls finally picked up a win last Saturday in commanding fashion over Chicago. After a scoreless first half, Cristian Casseres found the back of the net just after halftime before Caden Clark added on in the 64th minute, which was enough as Chicago didn’t generate many dangerous chances.

While the Fire managed a possession advantage at 56%, they only had six shots for the game compared to 16 for New York, including six on target. Goaltender Carlos Miguel Coronel kept a clean sheet in his third game with the Red Bulls.

New York has managed 1.67 goals per game on 13.33 shots per game, as it has managed to find the back of the net at least once in all three matches so far, with two of those going over the betting total. The Red Bulls are also giving up 1.67 goals per game, although they have done an excellent job at limiting chances as opponents are only putting up 6.67 shots per game.

Both Casseres and Clark now have two goals apiece on the season, with Andrew Gutman also finding the back of the net once. Fabio has dished out two assists for the Red Bulls to lead the club.

Bench players Youba Diarra (hamstring) and Jason Pendant (shoulder) were both unavailable against Chicago and its unclear of they will be able to return to the lineup for this weekend.

Side prediction: New York Red Bulls +102

Toronto started to fade at the end of last season, and those same problems are still here under new head coach Chris Armas. With one of the best players in MLS in Pozuelo not suiting up for Toronto plus its issues in defense, a Red Bulls team that is unfortunate to have only three points this season will be able to pick up another win.

There’s no replacing the playmaking creativity of Pozuelo, who racked up nine goals and nine assists last season en route to winning MLS MVP. Toronto needs its offense to be at full strength in order to win matches, as the defense has been shredded this season so far, including two weeks ago by a not particularly good Vancouver team.

Even though the Red Bulls have given up five goals, they’ve controlled the action defensively with opponents tallying only 11 shots on target through three games, and will start to keep more clean sheets if they keep that rate up. With how Toronto has struggled, it is worth a shot to bet the Red Bulls to win at plus odds.

Total: Over 3 (-105)

Even though New York’s early-season has revolved around stout defense, the offense has played pretty well too with five goals across three games. Newcomer Fabio has fit in well with the roster so far adding a spark of creative playmaking, while the 17-year-old Clark seems on the verge of a major expert.

There’s still a lot of offensive talent even on a shorthanded Toronto squad with Osorio and 21-year-old Ayo Akinola set to return fully healthy this weekend. Given that Toronto looks like it is going to play in a lot of high-scoring games this season, the over remains the play here.