NYCFC vs. Atlanta United Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 6/23/21
A pair of teams in the midst of frustrating seasons will be looking to get back on track when New York City FC hosts Atlanta United on Wednesday. The Eastern Conference battle features two 11-point teams through their first eight matches. NYCFC would currently hold the final playoff spot due to goal differential.
Atlanta loves to Draw
Atlanta United has only picked up one win in its last six matches. It is coming off three consecutive draws, including a 2-2 final against Philadelphia in its last contest. Atlanta took a 2-0 lead with eight minutes remaining in regulation, but it allowed consecutive goals in the final minutes. The final goal came from 35 yards out in stoppage time. Atlanta has really dropped off after winning the MLS Cup in 2018 and making the semi-finals in 2019. Despite not winning many matches, Atlanta has also only suffered one loss. Jurgen Damm and Emerson Hyndman will remain out with leg injuries on Wednesday.
Hyndman is a key piece to the possession game in the midfield, so his ACL injury was a huge blow to the squad. He suffered the injury in training. Atlanta is currently sitting in a four-way tie for seventh in the conference, but it is behind NYCFC due to goal differential. It went 2-6-2 on the road last season. Josef Martinez is also out right now, as he is with Venezuela for the Copa America and will miss the next few matches. Former Man United defender Gabriel Heinze took over as manager in December 2020. He is under some serious pressure to make the playoffs this year.
NYCFC comes back late against New England, only to fall late
New York City FC has yet to win the MLS Cup since its team was founded eight years ago. It has only picked up a win in one of its last five matches, which came in a 2-1 win over LAFC at the end of May. NYCFC is coming off a 3-2 loss to New England on Saturday. New England took a 2-1 lead with 12 minutes remaining in regulation before giving up a goal seven minutes later. The Revolution were able to grab the game-winner with two minutes remaining, giving them their fourth straight win.
Thiago Andrade scored in the 55th minute of his MLS debut after signing with the team in April. Ismael Tajouri-Shradi scored his third goal of the season in the 85th minute. Keeper Sean Johnson stopped just two of five total shots. NYCFC has scored at least one goal in 19 consecutive matches and is one shy of tying the club record. It made the first round of the playoffs last season before losing in penalties to Orlando City. NYCFC has been extremely inconsistent this year and is simply looking for a berth in the playoffs at this point.
Pick: (Atlanta +410)
I am quite honestly shocked at the money line price that is available with Atlanta on Wednesday night. While it might not be winning many matches, it has had a great opportunity in almost every contest. New York City has been extremely inconsistent and is not deserving of this type of love from the oddsmakers. Some injuries are hampering Atlanta, but there are enough quality pieces to compete with NYCFC in this match. Both teams are dealing with emotional losses in their previous match, so that’s not a huge negative for the road team. I’ll take a stab on Atlanta as a hefty underdog.
Total (Over 2.5)
Atlanta’s midfield is going to be boom-or-bust while Hyndman is sidelined with his injury. I am expecting some leaky possessions that result in nice counter-attacking opportunities for NYCFC, but I also expect Atlanta to tally a few goals of its own. This one should easily go over this low total, so I do not mind paying a little juice on the over 2.5. Both teams played high-scoring matches their last time out and I am expecting more of the same on Wednesday night.
