Orlando City FC vs. Chicago Fire Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/21/21
Eastern Conference foes will square off on Saturday night when the Chicago Fire visit Orlando City SC at Exploria Stadium. Chicago is coming off a tough 3-2 road loss to Inter Miami on Wednesday as a +296 underdog, and is now in 11th place in the East at 5-5-10 this season. Orlando holds down the fifth spot at 8-7-4 after a 1-1 draw at Nashville SC on Wednesday night, with the tie hitting at huge +438 odds.
These teams last met in early July, with Chicago rolling to a 3-1 win at home. The Fire now lead the all-time series against Orlando 5-5-3.
Fire’s four-match unbeaten run ends in dramatic fashion
A Chicago team that had been steadily climbing the table over the last few weeks had a good chance to get even closer to playoff position on Wednesday at Miami, only to be undone in the waning seconds. After Miami struck first in the 34th minute, Chicago roared back with goals on either side of halftime as Francisco Calvo headed a shot in before Luka Stojanovic found the back of the net from close range, only for the hosts to even things in the 62nd and get the winner deep into stoppage time.
It was a fairly even match, as Miami held a slight advantage with 54% possession and 12 shots to Chicago’s eight. Stojanovic was credited with the assist on Chicago’s first goal, while keeper Bobby Shuttleworth only came up with one save.
While things have been much better over the last few weeks, it has not been a pretty season statistically for the Fire, who are averaging 1.15 goals and 13.55 shots per match overall. Chicago's defense doesn’t grade out much better at 1.60 goals and 14.1 shots allowed per match while keeping four clean sheets.
Stojanovic is easily Chicago’s top scorer with seven goals, and has now added his first assist of the season. Alvaro Medran has dished out a team-high five assists while scoring once, with Boris Sekulic adding two goals and four assists.
Midfielder Ignacio Aliseda, who is having a solid year with three goals and one assist, has missed the last three matches with a shin issue and his status is uncertain. Medran was able to come off the bench on Wednesday after missing two matches with an illness, and is likely to be closer to full strength this weekend.
Orlando battles for a third straight draw
While Orlando has now only won just once in its last five outings, it continued to maintain position in the top five by getting a road point on Wednesday against a good Nashville team. Both offenses played well throughout the match, and while Nashville would lead for a long stretch after scoring in the 23rd, Antonio Carlos was able to head in the equalizer at the 58 minute mark.
The teams finished fairly even statistically with 14 shots apiece and Nashville managing four attempts on target to Orlando’s three. Mauricio Pereyra was credited with the assist on the Orlando goal, while Tesho Akindele was denied the game-winner late on a spectacular save by Nashville keeper Joe Willis.
Orlando has put together a strong offense this season with an average of 1.53 goals and 11.68 shots per game. The defense has fallen off a bit lately, but is still managing solid numbers with 1.26 goals and 12.68 shots allowed per game while keeping five clean sheets.
Nani has been one of the top producers in all of MLS to lead the Orlando offense with nine goals and six assists. Akindele is also having a strong campaign with three goals and four assists, while Pereyra has now dished out five helpers.
Top goalkeeper Pedro Gallese has been sidelined since the end of July with a lower-body injury, and it is unclear when he will return. Forward Alexandre Pato is still recovering after suffering a knee injury early in the season.
Side prediction: Orlando City -1 (+105)
Total: Over 3 (-120)
Despite the scoreline favoring Chicago in the first meeting between these two, Orlando has been the far more well-rounded and team team throughout the season. Orlando has dropped just one match at home all season, and will use its superior firepower offensively to beat Chicago here, with a great chance to win by multiple goals.
Chicago’s defensive woes don’t appear likely to get turned around after conceding three times against one of MLS’ worst offenses on Wednesday, and it continues to rank in the bottom third of the league with 1.61 expected goals allowed per game. The offense isn’t good enough to make up for it as production falls off hard after Stojanovic, and that spells trouble against a strong Orlando defense that has allowed only 23.3 expected goals on the season.
Orlando has multiple playmakers to throw at the Chicago defense with Nani and Akindele leading the way, and it was unfortunate to only get one by the Fire last meeting as it had several dangerous chances. Throw in the fact that Chicago is 0-1-6 on the road for the season, and this could get out of hand.
As good as Orlando’s defensive metrics are, things change significantly if Gallese remains out, as he is one of the best goaltenders in MLS. Opponents have managed 1.44 goals per match in the nine games with Gallese out, and Stojanovic can make something happen as he is on an absolute tear at the moment.
The offense has remained consistently steady for Orlando all season, getting shutout just two times, and Chicago’s defense has been even more miserable on the road with 1.85 expected goals allowed per match. This is primed to be another four-goal game between these two, with Orlando doing most of the damage this time.
