Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/1/21
FC Cincinnati needs to quickly bounce back before it turns into the worst team in the MLS. It is coming off a 5-0 beatdown against New York City last week. This week, it travels to Orlando for a meeting with Orlando City SC, who has picked up a pair of draws to open the season.
FC Cincinnati can't hold onto a late lead
FC Cincinnati blew a late lead in its season-opener against Nashville, only getting one point in the 2-2 draw. It looked like the worst team in the MLS last week, falling in a 5-0 blowout against New York City FC. Cincinnati is now on pace to give up 119 goals this season, which earned a last-place mark in the updated MLS.com power rankings. Second-year coach Jaap Stam has his work cut out for him, especially after that result. Cincinnati dropped a 5-1 contest against Orlando in 2019 and then saw its way to a 1-1 draw later that season.
Franko Kovacevic and Maikel van der Werff are both out for this match, while Luciano Acosta is listed as doubtful. Cincinnati finished 12th in the MLS in its first season (2019) and then was dead-last in 2020. It allowed 10 shots on target against New York City last week and will now face another team with a lot of attacking prowess. Jurgen Locadia could make his first start of the season after coming off the bench in the first two matches. He is currently on loan from Brighton & Hove Albion.
Orlando SC struggling on offense
Orlando has not quite been able to unlock its offensive potential through the first two weeks of the season. It played its way to a 0-0 draw with Atlanta United in the opening match, getting fortunate when Josef Martinez missed on a great scoring chance late in the day. Orlando picked up a late 1-1 draw last week, as star Nani netted an equalizing goal with around 10 minutes left in the match. The club is coming off a season that resulted in a fourth-place finish in the MLS’ Eastern Conference. It finished second in the “MLS is Back” Tournament last summer.
Star striker Alexandre Pato is out for several more weeks after suffering a knee injury against Atlanta United. Oriel Rosell, Robin Jansson and Joao Moutinho are all questionable as they return from injury. Coach Oscar Pareja’s team is one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the MLS, although it has not quite been able to break the seal in the first two matches. Orlando averaged 1.78 goals per match last year and is expected to be an even higher-scoring team after some offseason acquisitions. Pato’s absence could slow things down, but he is expected to return sometime in May.
Spread (Cincinnati +1 (+101)
Anytime people are struggling to find a good reason to bet on a team, they generally become a solid wager. Cincinnati is coming off one of the most lopsided results in the MLS over the last few years, so public bettors are not rushing to the window to put money down on them in this spot. However, Orlando has shown some deficiencies this season and Cincinnati is available at plus-money to keep this within a one-goal match. The home side is without its star striker, which has really put a dent in the attack over the last two weeks.
Total (Under 3)
There is basically one path to a result for Cincinnati in this match. Spoiler: that path does not include a high-scoring match. Orlando has not been able to get the attack going in its first two matches, but everyone is aware of its potential. Cincinnati will be looking to play a defensive style that limits good scoring chances. I expect the back-line to come out really focused after what was an embarrassing performance last week. Stam is a former Man United defender who is going to make defense an emphasis in this match. Cincinnati can muddy the waters enough to keep this thing low scoring.
