Orlando City vs. Toronto FC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/22/21

Two Eastern Conference teams at opposite ends of the table will square off on Saturday night when Orlando City SC hosts Toronto FC at Exploria Stadium. Orlando is in second place in the East at 2-3-0 after picking up a 1-0 win at D.C. United on Sunday to cash in as a +128 underdog. Toronto has struggled at 1-2-2, good for 12th place in the conference, although it did play NYCFC to a 1-1 tie on the road over the weekend with the draw hitting at +402 odds.

These teams have not met since August of 2019 in Toronto, when they played to a 1-1 draw. Toronto has dominated head-to-head 8-2-2 since Orlando came into MLS in 2015.

Toronto hopes to build momentum after strong week

Toronto is off to one of its worst starts in a long time, but looked much better last week as it beat the defending champion Columbus Crew 2-0 on Wednesday before getting a point at NYCFC over the weekend. After a scoreless first half on Saturday, NYCFC struck first with a goal in the 53rd minute before Toronto was able to rally with a strike from Jacob Shaffelburg in the 74th, just moments after he entered as a substitute for designated player Yeferson Solteldo.

It wasn’t a pretty game statistically for Toronto, which only had three attempts on target compared to seven for NYCFC while managing just 41% possession. Alex Bono still did enough in net to get a draw despite facing constant pressure, and NYCFC had a second goal waved off in the 71st minute due to a foul.

Offense has not been lacking for Toronto, as it is averaging 1.4 goals and 9.4 shots per game while only getting blanked once in a 2-0 loss to NY Red Bulls. Toronto’s defense has crumbled, allowing 1.8 goals and 10.6 shot attempts per game, although it was much better in the two matches last week.

No member of Toronto has found the back of the net multiple times, with seven different players scoring one goal apiece, led by Michael Bradley who has added the team’s lone assist for the season. Jozy Altidore has scored once and grades out as Toronto’s best regular starter by expected metrics.

Injuries have been a big reason for Toronto’s slow start, as reigning MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo has not played this season due to a quad injury and its unclear when he may return, although the coaching staff has indicated he is close. Jonathan Osorio, another important player in the Toronto offense, has played just 30 minutes all year due to a leg injury and is considered questionable for this weekend.

Orlando extends unbeaten streak to five matches

After turning in by far its best record in franchise history last season, Orlando is just one of three MLS teams to get at least a point in every match to start 2021 after taking down D.C. United on Sunday. The only goal of Sunday’s match came seven minutes in off the foot of Mauricio Pereyra, allowing Orlando’s defense to take control as D.C. United created very few chances in the second half.

Each team managed just one attempt on target, with D.C. United leading in total shots 13-6 while holding 55% possession. Pedro Gallese kept a clean sheet only having to deal with a few dangerous looks from D.C. in the first half, while Tesho Akindele provided the assist on Pereyra’s goal.

That mirrored most of Orlando’s matches this season, as it is not a high-octane offense at 1.2 goals on 12 shots per game. Orlando has conceded just twice in five matches all season with opponents putting up 10.2 shots per game, and the dominant Seattle Sounders are the only other MLS team with fewer than four goals allowed this year.

Nani has provided the offense for Orlando this season with three goals, while Pereyra and Akindele now each have a goal and an assist. Chris Mueller leads Orlando with two assists and has been the team’s most dangerous player by expected metrics.

Striker Pato, one of the biggest additions by any team in MLS this offseason, underwent a knee procedure earlier in May and is likely at least another two weeks away from returning.

Side prediction: Orlando City SC -125

Total: Under 2.5 (+125)

Orlando has suddenly been transformed into one of the best teams in MLS since the start of 2020 as head coach Oscar Pareja was able to rebuild the team faster than anyone expected. With Toronto still limited significantly by injuries and not playing well, this is a great chance for Orlando to keep up its unbeaten streak with another win.

Toronto’s central defense emerged as a problem spot late last season leading to an early playoff exit, and doesn’t look much better to start 2021 as only four teams have concerned more goals. That should help out an Orlando offense that isn’t always consistent, and the Lions’ defense has been suffocating both by goals allowed and advanced metrics.

While the results were much better for Toronto last week, it was fortunate to get out of New York with a point as the offense didn’t do much, and the Reds will be hard-pressed to avoid getting blanked by an elite Orlando defense if they play like that again. Orlando looks headed for one of the best records in MLS for the second straight year, and will be able to handle a Toronto side that is not at full strength due to injuries.

This is a battle between a strong offense and an excellent defense, but at plus odds the under carries more value. Toronto’s defense has been better the last two matches, and Bono has been playing well in net which can make up for some of the shortcomings on the back line. On the other side, it’s impossible to make up for the playmaking Pozuelo provides when healthy, so Toronto’s offense is not quite on its usual elite level yet.

Just one of Orlando’s five matches has featured more than two goals, and that was a 3-0 win over woeful FC Cincinnati, a game where the Lions got over a third of their total shots for the season. Orlando is great at parking the bus and is very difficult to score on once it gets a lead, which will happen again here in what could easily be another 1-0 win.