Perfect 10: NBA Finals

The NBA Finals roll into week 2 with the Celtics holding serve at home, winning both games. The Mavericks now try to protect their home court and may do so without having to deal with Celtics’ center Kristaps Porgingis, who is dealing with a strange injury. Let’s dive into this week’s Perfect Ten.

Perfect Ten


Boston Celtics (-800) vs. Dallas Mavericks (+550)

Game 1- Boston 107 Dallas 89: The Celtics covered the spread (-6.5) and dominated this game from nearly start to finish. Jaylen Brown led a balanced Celtics’ attack with 22 points and the Celtics set an NBA Finals record with seven different players hitting at least two 3-point field goals. Porzingis returned to the lineup and had 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks off the bench. In all, the Celtics had nine blocks as a team.

The Mavericks got the usual scoring production from Luka Doncic, who finished with 30 points but he had a playoff-low 1 assist in the game as Boston forced him to strictly be a scorer and took away the alley-oop pass that had been a staple of the Dallas offense in the playoffs. The two teams combined for 196 points, well below the O/U of 214.5 points.

Game 2- Boston 105 Dallas 98: The Celtics jumped out to a 2-0 series lead in a much tiger contest than game one. The Celtics were led by their exceptional backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Holiday finished with a game-high 26 points and 11 rebounds while White chipped in with 18 points. The duo combined for four blocks and four steals in the game as well. The Celtics trailed after the first quarter but bounced back to close out the Mavs and once again cover the spread (-6.5).

The Mavericks got another strong game out of Doncic, who finished with 32 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists. PJ Washington had his best game of the Finals with 17 points but it was White’s blocked shot on Washington that sealed the win with under a minute to go. The Mavericks struggled from the 3-point stripe again, hitting on just 6-of-26 in game two. The two teams combined for 203 points to go under the total (214.5) yet again.

Game 3 Odds: Boston at Dallas (-3; O/U 213.5): The Celtics may be without Porzingis tonight and that could shift the game in favor of the Mavs without Porzingis there to protect the basket. If you favor the Mavs to win this game, you might want to lean to the over in this game as they will need increased production out of the likes of Kyrie Irving and their wing players.

Player Point Props - Here are five player point props to consider for tonight’s game.

  • Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics 26.5 points - Tatum has yet to break out in the Finals and this could be the game with the Celtics potentially playing from behind and better floor spacing with more Horford and less Porgzingis.

  • Al Horford, Boston Celtics 9.5 points - Horford should get more opportunities to score in this game with Porzingis banged up and he should take a minimum of five or six 3-point field goals.

  • Daniel Gafford, Dallas Mavericks 9.5 points - Gafford took advantage of mismatches a few times in game two and Kidd may see that as a place to go in this game a few more times. Additionally, the alley-oop could be back in vogue should Porzingis miss the game.

  • Derrick Lively, Dallas Mavericks 7.5 points - Like Gafford, don’t be surprised to see Lively on the other end of some Doncic’s passes in this game. Additionally, Lively could see more opportunities for put-backs in this game as well.

  • Derrick White, Boston Celtics 15.5 points - White has a better scoring average on the road than at home in the playoffs including a higher 3-point shooting percentage.

Be sure to take advantage of all the opportunities to make some money on this game beyond the final outcome. The point spread is tight and Porzingis’ status does confuse the issue. Taking advantage of player props and the game total might be the way to go.

  • In parenthesis, conference odds and finals odds. Player MVP props are also in parenthesis. All odds Courtesy of

By Mark Ruelle

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Mark Ruelle

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.