Philadelphia Union vs. CF Montreal Prediction, Preview, and Odds -8/21/21

The Philadelphia Union play host to CF Montreal on Saturday night from Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania, in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup. These two teams have yet to face off against each other this year but last year saw the Union snag the season sweep. In the home leg, they won 2-1, while winning 4-1 in the away leg. The Union were one of soccer’s best teams last year and they’ve taken a slight step back but remain well within the playoff picture. For Montreal, they would be in the playoffs if the season ended on Saturday morning, sitting in seventh place by only three points. Only four points separate the two teams though and Saturday’s matchup promises to be one of the best on the weekend slate. Both teams have scored 26 goals, while Philadelphia has allowed six fewer goals. Philadelphia will be sure to try to start fast at home and get off to an early start, while Montreal will look to continue their strong defensive run of play and make a single error dictate how the game goes. Either way, the Eastern Conference standings could look different by the time Saturday’s game is over.

Union In Midst Of Playoff Battle

The Eastern Conference remains way too early to call besides the Revolution running away with first place. The Union, after last year’s banner campaign, enter in fourth place, sitting on 31 points in 20 games and a plus-six goal differential. Second place Nashville only has 32 points, while seventh-place Montreal has 27 points, showing how close the teams are bunched together. The Union won their mid-week game against NYCFC behind Alejandro Bedoya’s 67th-minute goal. Last week saw them drop a game to the Revolution, though not a shocking result against the league’s top team. Prior to that, the Union had only lost one of their previous six games and they’ve consistently found ways to take down the teams behind them in the standings. Saturday’s game presents another opportunity for Philadelphia to build up points against a lesser club and widen the gap in the conference and being able to play a second straight game at home will surely be an advantage.

Philadelphia has done well to weather various injuries and absences from international duty and now remains one of the only teams in the league without anyone on the league’s availability report. That in itself will be a huge advantage when they take the field and consistency playing with the same group night in and night out is bound to help the Union find more success. It also doesn’t hurt that the Union has one of the best goalkeepers in the league to rely on in Andre Blake. Blake, the Jamaican international, has the ability to weather any offense that Montreal throws their way, and regardless of some of the issues and lack of a frontrunner for the Union, that ability allows them to stay in any game. Blake also has the ability to hide an issue for Philadelphia, which is their backline.

Kacper Przybylko is the leader on the offensive side of things, with six goals, while Sergio Santos and Cory Burke are right on his tail with four goals each. Jamir Monteiro is a creator as well, leading the way with four assists. Bedoya remains a household name from his time with the U.S. National Team but has struggled to get much going despite appearing in all 19 games this season. He has no assists and only a single goal to show for himself. Once he gets going though, this Union attack has the ability to turn the corner and be a team with a keeper and attack that not many in MLS can match. That is a recipe for success down the road and for Saturday night, as Blake should make it tough for Montreal to score, while the offense looks to build off getting Bedoya involved last time out.

Montreal Looking For Consistency

Montreal remains right in the thick of things in regards to the playoff race and that’s with their consistency lacking lately. Montreal has strung together two games without a loss, though Wednesday’s game to only take a point off of Cincinnati hurts. While they were able to take down New York Red Bulls at home last week, a loss to DC United, a tie against Atlanta, and three straight losses to end July, has suddenly put this season into question. Montreal seemed to have a strong case for the playoffs once summer started but their July form now has put the pressure back on them to get their kinks figured out. Montreal sits in seventh place, the last spot to qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs, with 27 points across 20 games. With a goal differential of only plus-one, the margin of error has been razor-thin for the club on the season. With their lack of success against Philadelphia in 2020, Saturday’s game is a massive opportunity for Montreal to attempt to flip their season around not only get their confidence back up but draw even with the Union on points.

As opposed to Philadelphia, who is one of the healthiest teams in the league, CF Montreal enters as one of the most beat up. They’ll be without five players on Saturday’s game, some being quite big absences for a team in the middle of a playoff race. Ahmed Hamdi (undisclosed), Ballou Tabla (groin), Romell Quioto (hamstring), Lassi Lappalainen (groin), and James Pantemis (healthy and safety protocols), are all out for Saturday’s game. Hamdi and Quioto will be difficult to replace, as both have scored two goals and Quioto has added three assists, but their top attacking threats remain. Montreal also won’t be missing anyone in the backline, giving them a group accustomed to playing together.

Montreal has quietly put together one of the youngest and most exciting attacks in MLS. Mason Toye leads the way with seven goals, while Djordje Mihailovic has three goals and six assists. The two have formed a nice partnership in their new homes north of the border and will give Philadephia and Blake everything that they can handle. One advantage that Montreal will have is the fact that their outside backs are able to get forward into the attack and help get the team out on the front foot in the attack. Zachary Brault-Guillard and Zohran Ludovic Bassong have combined for two goals and two assists and can make it a long night for Philadelphia’s backline. If they can get forward and keep the pressure on Philadelphia, it might be their best chance to take points on the road.

Pick: Philadelphia Union (-150)

Now that Bedoya has gotten into the mix on the scoring sheet, that should ideally get him more involved with the offense on a consistent basis, starting against Montreal. Not only is Philadelphia at home for the second straight game while Montreal remains on the road, but they also come in as one of the healthiest teams in the league. Montreal is without five players and two of those are key starters who have been able to contribute on a consistent basis. Blake in goal will make it tough for Montreal to score no matter how well their attack can play and with Philadelphia’s balanced attack themselves, they won’t have any issues scoring a few goals themselves en route to a crucial home win.

Total: Under

Montreal enters with two of the league’s most dynamic young talents but has struggled to consistently put the ball into the back of the net. Over their last seven games, more than three goals have only been scored one time and it hasn’t happened in any of their last three games. For Philadelphia, in their last nine MLS games and ten games overall, more than three goals haven’t been scored once. With one of the best keepers in the league and a balanced but uninspiring attack, Philadelphia and Montreal will love to play this come at a low-scoring style. In three of the last five games between the two teams, three goals or less have been scored as well, a trend that will continue into Saturday’s affair.

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Eric Ploch

Eric grew up surrounded by sports, whether it was spending the weekend catching games in person or on tv, or heading out to the fields to play whatever sport was in season. What started as a hobby, soon became a passion, as he became the sports editor of his high school newspaper, then wrote for his university newspaper during his undergrad years. After obtaining a degree in Sports Operations and Promotions, and spending 8 years deeply immersed in the sports world, Eric decided to take his love for analytics and predictions, and his experience, to online sports fans everywhere. James is now an integral part of our team here at StatSalt and has also been a very successful sports bettor over the years. Be sure and follow him daily.