Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC Prediction, Preview and Odds-5/1/21
The Philadelphia Union will look to pick up their first win of the season when they host New York City FC on Saturday evening in a battle of Eastern Conference contenders. After winning the Supporters’ Shield last season, Philadelphia is off to an 0-1-1 start in MLS competition following a 2-1 home loss to Inter Miami last Saturday as a +105 underdog. NYCFC picked up its first win of the season on Saturday with a 5-0 domination of FC Cincinnati as a -246 home favorite, and is now 1-1-0.
Philadelphia won the only meeting last season by a score of 1-0 in the MLS is Back Tournament. NYCFC still leads 8-4-1 in MLS meetings all-time.
NYCFC dismantles Cincinnati for the first result of the season
Expectations are as high as ever for an NYCFC team that has made the playoffs every year in MLS apart from its inaugural season, and it took care of business against struggling Cincinnati over the weekend. Jesus Medina scored six minutes into the game, but NYCFC wouldn’t get on the board again until the 53rd minute when an own goal by Cincinnati opened the floodgates. NYCFC went on to add three more goals in a 25 minute period, including another tally from Medina in the 83rd minute to cap the blowout.
While NYCFC only had 53% possession, it outshot Cincinnati 22-13 with 10 of those going on target. Sean Johnson made five saves to preserve the clean sheet, while Gudmundur Thorarinsson and Valentin Castellanos also added goals.
NYCFC is now tied for the most goals in MLS at three per game while generating a strong 17 shots per match. The clean sheet was a welcome sign after NYCFC played some shaky defense in the season-opening 2-1 loss to D.C. United, as it is now down to one goal and 12 shots allowed per match.
Castellanos has been NYCFC’s most productive player so far with two goals and an assist, building on his strong numbers with the club from 2018-20 including leading the team in scoring last season. Anton Tinnerholm had a strong 2020 campaign with four goals and four assists, is on the score sheet with a helper in NYCFC’s only goal in the opener against D.C. United.
Top forward Heber, who racked up 19 goals in his MLS debut season two years ago for NYCFC, will not be available until later this summer as he recovers from a torn ACL. Fellow forward Thiago Andrade signed with the team two weeks ago but hasn’t received a visa yet. Bench midfielders Gedion Zelalem and Tony Rocha are both questionable with hamstring injuries.
Philadelphia hopes to get going after a slow start
After finishing with the best record in MLS a year ago, the Union have been sloppy in two matches this season, a scoreless draw against Columbus in the opener followed by a late collapse at Inter Miami last weekend. Philadelphia scored its first goal of the 2021 season in the 54th minute on a strike by Jamiro Monteiro to take the lead, but Inter Miami bounced back with goals in the 73rd and 83rd to steal all three points.
The Union outshot Miami 13-6, although each team only had three attempts on target apiece, with Philadelphia also holding an edge in possession at 54%. It wasn’t all bad for Philadelphia this week, as the Union bounced back with a resounding 3-0 win over Atlanta United in the first leg of a CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinal on Tuesday night thanks to two goals from Kacper Przybylko and a great performance by Andre Blake in net.
Philadelphia is one of just four teams in MLS to have scored only one goal in two matches, although it has generated a fair amount of pressure with an average of 14 shots per game. Opponents are scoring an even two goals per game against the Union while averaging nine shots per match.
Przybylko recorded Philadelphia’s first assist of the year on the Monteiro goal on Saturday, and is coming off a terrific 2020 season when tallied eight goals and six assists. Sergio Santos Gomes matched Przybylko atop the Union leaderboard with eight goals last year, and has been Philadelphia’s most dangerous player through two matches this season by the expected goals added metric.
Bench midfielders Ilsinho (groin) and Jack de Vries (concussion) are yet to join the team this season, and it’s unclear if they will be available Saturday.
Side: Philadelphia Union +115
It’s been a disappointing start for the Union in MLS play, but this roster is too deep and talented to struggle forever, and Philadelphia showed its quality with the midweek CONCACAF Champions League blowout of a good Atlanta United team. With NYCFC facing plenty of questions of its own, this is a great opportunity for Philadelphia to get in the win column at plus odds.
Despite being one of the youngest teams in MLS last season, Philadelphia finished with a gaudy 14-5-4 record backed by elite numbers on both sides of the ball, and returns eight starters from that team. The Union defense has largely controlled their two MLS matches so far in 2021 apart from a slip-up in the final 20 minutes against Miami, and NYCFC might struggle to generate offense as it has no depth on the frontline and key forward Maximiliano Moralez is now 34 years old and coming off a down season.
While NYCFC dismantled a bad Cincinnati team last week, this is a much tougher opponent, and the loss of longtime midfielder and captain Alexander Ring looms large as he’s played terrific for expansion side Austin FC. The midweek Champions League victory will serve as a springboard for Philadelphia’s season and the Union will get back on track this weekend.
Total: Under 2.5 (+115)
The Union were a bit unfortunate to give up two goals on just three shots on target last weekend against Miami, and don’t expect that to happen again as Blake is typically strong in net. Philadelphia allowed just 0.87 goals per game plus 25.5 expected goals for the season, and the defense hasn’t missed a beat to start 2021 as it shut down a prolific Columbus offense in the opener.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Philadelphia’s offense take a hit this season as attacking midfielder Brenden Aaronson is off to the Austrian League after being named MLS Best XI last year and the Union haven’t exactly been racking up a high number of dangerous chances yet. NYCFC has even bigger questions offensively until Heber returns from injury, and won’t be able to break through against the best defense it has faced so far.
