Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/18/21
Philadelphia vs. NYCFC
New York City FC is in solid form as of late and hit the road to play Philadelphia, who lost their last MLS match and were shut out in their last match in the CONCACAF Champions League.
NYCFC is unbeaten in their last seven matches and they had played to three straight draws before a shutout win in their last match. The club is in second place in the Eastern Conference but are still eight points back of first-place New England. New York has a goal differential of +16 and they have conceded the fewest goals in the East.
Philadelphia was blanked in their last match in the CONCACAF Champions League and lost their last MLS match. They are in the fifth spot in the East but are only three points back of NYCFC.
Defense Gets it Done, Again
New York City Football Club was at home in their last match where their defense got it done in a 2-0 win over Inter Miami. Valentín Castellanos scored both goals in the match, one on a penalty, and the squad scored both of their goals in the first half. They narrowly won the time of possession battle and had fewer shots on goals (4-3) but had more shots overall (12-7). NYCFC has only allowed more than one goal in one of their last seven matches.
New York has scored the third most goals in MLS and Castellanos leads the club with eight goals and also is tied with Maxi Morález for the team lead in assists (6). Jesús Medina and Ismael Tajouri-Shradi have each scored seven goals apiece. NYCFC is healthy for this match and have a full squad on the ready. Their defense stepped up in their third match of the season where they were on the road and beat Philly 2-0.
Goals are Not There
The Union have lost their last two matches and in their last one lost to América 2-in the CONCACAF Champions League and in their previous loss only scored one goal. The last match was the first leg on the road where the club was dominated in time of possession (66% to 34%) and only had two shots on target while giving up five. The Union hope to avoid another 2-0 loss like the last one and the one early in the season to NYCFC where they played with 10-men at home after an early red card.
The attack has been the main issue for the Union on the season, as they have scored 19 goals in 19 matches. Kacper Przybylko leads the club with six goals and Sergio Santos and Cory Burke each have four goals. The MF duo of Jack de Vries and Anthony Fontana are both listed as questionable for this match with concussion issues.
Pick: New York City Football Club +170
It is pretty simple, as NYCFC are in solid form while Philadelphia is not. The Union have lost their last two matches where they only scored one goal while New York is unbeaten in their last seven matches. NYCFC has played great defense all season and early in the season they beat Philly 2-0 in their house. I look for them to play solid D once again facing a Union club that has not looked good in their last two matches. They were dominated in their last match and while I look for them to play better, especially in the midfield, their offense will struggle to score. I look for the Union to break through with a goal or two while playing solid on the defensive side of the pitch, which is why New York is the pick in this Eastern Conference affair.
Total: Under 2.5 goals
The total when these two teams played early in the season went Under and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this match. NYC is in solid form as of late while the same cannot be said about the Union. This match pits the solid defense of New York against an attack of the Union that has only scored 19 goals in 19 matches. Philly has only scored one goal in their last two matches, and they were shut out in their last one. Look for their attack to struggle again facing an NYC team that is coming off a shutout win. NYC will not light it up on the attack, but their D will be the main reason they win and also the main reason the Under is the pick for the match.
