Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks Preview, Prediction and Odds - 6/16/21

A pair of Western Conference teams in search of a victory to try and right the ship take the floor in WNBA action in the City of Angels. The Phoenix Mercury are on the road as they travel to face the Los Angeles Sparks Wednesday night. Phoenix was edged 85-83 at home by New York in their most recent contest Sunday night. Los Angeles was dropped 80-66 on the road by Minnesota in their most recent game Sunday night. Last season, the Sparks took both meetings in the bubble, including an 83-74 win as the “home” team in the most recent meeting on August 19, 2020. That gave Los Angeles three straight wins in the series and they have taken eight of the last 10 meetings.

Phoenix Mercury Looking to Get Back in Win Column

Phoenix suffered a third straight loss, all at home, as their late rally fell short against New York Sunday night. The Mercury dropped to 5-6 on the season and entered Tuesday holding the seventh seed in the WNBA playoff picture though they were just percentage points ahead of the ninth-place Sparks. Phoenix trailed by 12 after the opening quarter and was down 17 with just over two minutes to play in the first half. The Mercury closed to within 12 at the half and tied the game midway through the third quarter before trailing by six at the end of three. Phoenix tied the game again, this time at 72, with 6:10 to play in regulation but gave up an 8-3 run to trail 80-75 with 4:07 to play. The Mercury couldn’t get closer than one the rest of the way despite their best efforts. Phoenix shot 38.5% from the field, including five of 24 from three-point range, and held a 42-36 edge on the glass in the loss. Brittney Griner led the Mercury with 29 points and 14 rebounds in the loss.

The Mercury are ninth in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 78.6 points per game. Phoenix is fourth in rebounding (36.4 rebounds) per contest and stand fifth in the league by handing out 19.4 assists a night. The Mercury are seventh in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 80.8 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is leading the Mercury in scoring with 19.4 points plus 5.2 assists a night. Brittney Griner (19.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.5 blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.8 points, 3.8 assists) and Brianna Turner (7.1 points, 8.2 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (10.9 points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy, Alanna Smith and Cierra Burdick are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is fifth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.1% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is 10th in three-pointers per game (6.1 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (28.5%) this season. Phoenix is 10th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 76.7% of their chances on the year. Taurasi was announced to have suffered a fractured sternum that she sustained May 16 against the Sun and is out until late June. She is expected to miss at least four weeks.

Los Angeles Sparks Shorthanded and Reeling

Los Angeles dropped their second straight as their offense was stifled once again. The shorthanded Sparks dropped to 4-5 on the season and entered Tuesday ninth in the WNBA playoff picture though they were tied with the Lynx for the final playoff spot. Los Angeles trailed 6-0 early, by seven after one quarter and by 14 at the half. The Sparks outscored the Lynx 22-8 in the third quarter to tie things up at 57 after three quarters but ran out of steam after that. Los Angeles gave up an 8-0 run to start the fourth quarter and couldn’t get closer than four the rest of the way. The Sparks gave up a 14-2 run to end things, turning what was a closer game into a double-digit loss. Los Angeles shot 32.9% from the field, including eight of 23 from three-point range, and took a 43-27 beating on the glass. Te’a Cooper led the Sparks with 17 points in the loss.

On the season, Los Angeles is 12th in the league in scoring offense as they average 74.2 points per game. The Sparks are last in rebounding (29.2 boards per game) and 12th in assists (15.1) this season. Los Angeles is 3rd in scoring defense as they give up an average of 78.3 points a night. Nneka Ogwumike leads the team with 16.4 points plus seven rebounds a game this season. Chiney Ogwumike (nine points, 5.7 boards) and Kristi Tolliver (9.1 points) are solid secondary scoring options. Derek Fisher hopes to get more from role players like Brittney Sykes, Nia Coffey (9.6 points), Erica Wheeler (10.9 points, 3.6 assists), Te’a Cooper, Amanda Zahui B (11.3 points, six boards), Arella Guirantes and Bria Holmes. Los Angeles is 12th in field goal percentage on the season as they shoot 38.7% from the field as a team on the year. The Sparks are tied for fifth in three-pointers per game (eight) and 4th in three-point shooting as they convert 35.1% from beyond the arc this season. Los Angeles is 11th in success at the charity stripe as they cash in 75.2% of their attempts on the year. Jasmine Walker was lost for the season with a torn ACL that she suffered against Las Vegas May 21. Chiney Ogwumike missed the last six games with a knee injury and is out indefinitely. Nneka Ogwumike is expected to miss four to six weeks with a knee sprain sustained against the Wings June 1. Cooper will miss this game as she is serving a one-game suspension after leaving the bench during an altercation in the loss to the Lynx Sunday.

Pick: Phoenix Mercury

Los Angeles is really struggling on the offensive end of the floor as they put up 68, 71 and 64 points in their last three games. Missing both Ogwumike sisters takes a big chunk of the Sparks’ offense out of the mix. In this one, the Sparks have to play without Cooper, who is serving her one-game suspension here for her actions in Sunday’s loss to the Lynx. That takes another weapon out of the mix for Los Angeles. The Sparks are 0-4 against Western Conference teams compared to a 4-1 mark against Eastern Conference teams this season. While Phoenix is missing Taurasi, the 1-2 punch of Griner and Diggins-Smith is too much for the Sparks to handle. Give the advantage to the Mercury in this contest.

Total: Under

Los Angeles is dead last in the league in scoring offense. For good measure, the Sparks are last in rebounding and last in field goal percentage as well on the year. With so many missing pieces, we’ve seen that Los Angeles has had issues on the offensive end of the floor. The Sparks have seen the under hit in seven of their nine contests on the season. Phoenix has been up and down on both ends of the floor in the first month of the season but they clearly aren’t quite the same without Taurasi in the mix. The Mercury have seen the under go 6-4-1 in their contests this season. With Los Angeles struggling to put points on the board, lean toward this one staying under the total.