Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC Prediction, Preview, And Odds -7/21/21

Two teams vying for position in the middle of the Western Conference table will square off on Saturday night when LAFC visits the Portland Timbers at Providence Park. LAFC is in fifth place in the West at 6-3-4 after picking up a 2-1 home win over Real Salt Lake on Saturday to hit as a massive -261 favorite. Portland holds down seventh with a record of 5-1-6 after shutting out FC Dallas 1-0 over the weekend as a -113 home favorite.

These teams most recently met in November of last year, with the match finishing in a 1-1 draw. LAFC leads 3-4-1 over Portland all-time.

Late goal gives Portland much-needed win over Dallas

A series of poor results including a 4-1 loss to expansion Austin FC at the start of July had the Timbers sliding out of playoff position, but they returned from the break with a shutout of FC Dallas to get back in the win column. It was a defensive struggle throughout the night with neither side generating much until Jeremy Ebobisse rifled a shot into the top right corner in the 84th minute to secure three points and send the first full-capacity crowd of the season in Portland into a frenzy.

Both teams managed two attempts on target, with Portland holding a slight advantage at 51% possession and 11 total shots to seven for Dallas. Yimmi Chara was credited with the assist on the lone goal on a nice through ball to Ebobisse to help Portland get the win over a Dallas team that has not posted a result on the road all season.

That was another shaky performance from a Portland offense that has been struggling of late, bringing its season numbers to an average of 1.25 goals and 13.25 shots per match. Portland’s defense is giving up 1.58 goals on 12.5 shots per game. And has now kept three clean sheets on the season.

Ebobisse and Dairon Asprilla are now tied atop the Timbers leaderboard with three goals apiece. Eryk Williamson leads Portland with two assists while adding one goal, while Felipe Mora has been the Timbers’ most dangerous attacker by advanced metrics.

The Timbers will be without Williamson for at least the rest of the week, as he is with the USMNT at the Gold Cup. Injuries have been a massive problem for the Timbers all season, as they have fielded 12 different starting lineups across all competition, although they were at least a little closer to full strength after the international break. Midfielder Christian Parades (thigh) and winger Jaroslaw Niezgoda (ACL) are both ruled out for Wednesday, while forward Andy Polo, goalkeeper Jeff Attinella and full back Ismaila Jome are all out for the season.

LAFC extends win streak to three on Vela’s fantastic strike

After a slow start to the season somewhat tempered LAFC’s high expectations, the club has started to surge up the standings over the past few weeks and picked up another win on Saturday night over Real Salt Lake. Diego Rossi got LAFC off to a great start with a goal in the 10th minute only for Real Salt Lake to equalize at 1-1 shortly after, where things would remain until the 79th when Carlos Vela’s goal of the year candidate from an impossible angle sealed the victory.

That helped LAFC avoid a frustrating draw, as it commanded the game with 29 shots to just three for Real Salt Lake while also holding 57% possession. Finishing was a problem as only nine of LAFC’s attempts went on target, and Vela also missed a penalty shot 20 minutes before his game winner.

Things are slowly starting to come around for the LAFC offense, which is now averaging 1.31 goals and 14.30 shots per game on the season. LAFC has been kept afloat by one of the elite defenses in MLS with four clean sheets, as opponents are only averaging just one goal and 10.46 shots per game.

Rossi takes over the team lead with five goals, while Jose Cifuentes is hot on his heels with four goals and two assists. Vela has dished out a team-high four assists while scoring two goals in just 10 matches, with Corey Baird adding three goals and two helpers.

Midfielder Mark-Anthony Kaye is the only player for LAFC on international duty, as Canada advanced to the knockout rounds of the Gold Cup. Forwards Danny Musovski (knee) and Kwadwo Mahala (knee) Opoku are the only players on the LAFC injury report.

Side prediction: LAFC +120

Total: Under 3 (-120)

This LAFC team is one of the most talented sides in all of MLS, and it is finally starting to show that quality over the last few weeks with the offense playing better to match the elite level of the defense. Portland is still struggling to generate consistent goal-scoring opportunities, and backing LAFC in much better form at plus odds in the play here.

Vela rounding into form is huge for an LAFC offense that had lackluster numbers in the first two months of the season as he can be the best player in all of MLS when at full strength, making for a fearsome attack with Rossi and Cifuentes also up front. If the offense plays up to full capability opponents are in trouble, as LAFC is tied for the second-fewest goals conceded in the league after struggling on the defensive side in recent years.

Portland will be better moving forward with players returning, but the short turnaround is a bigger factor for them as several players are either still not at full strength or have played a busy schedule with deep Copa America runs. There are red flags for the Timbers right now as they have been blown out by Austin FC and barely beat a poor Dallas team in recent matches, and this will be too tough of a challenge.

All predictive metrics indicate LAFC can keep this current defensive form up, as it has allowed just 12.2 expected goals on the season. That shouldn’t change much on Wednesday as LAFC figures to have most of the ball against a Portland attack that has managed just two goals over its last three matches despite playing some weak competition.

Even though things are improving for the LAFC offense, finishing remains a massive issue as the team struggles to turn a high number of shots into dangerous chances, as seen in last week’s game against Real Salt Lake. Another clean sheet is very much on the cards for LAFC here, and it won’t quite convert enough chances to get the over here.