Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/22/21

The Portland Timbers play their sixth game of the 2021 MLS season on Saturday afternoon as they play host to the LA Galaxy, also stepping out on the field for the sixth time, from Providence Park in Portland. The Timbers are coming off a road win against San Jose last weekend, which was their second win of the season and their first win since nearly a month ago, which has helped propel them up to ninth place in the Western Conference standings. For the Galaxy, they’re coming off two wins in a row in what has been a surprising start to the season that’s seen them rise up all the way into second place in the Western Conference after a few years of struggles. These two teams faced off four times last year due to the COVID-adjusted schedule and Portland won three of those matchups, outsourcing the Galaxy 16 goals to 9 goals. With the tides turning in the Western Conference after a month and a half of soccer, which team will get the crucial points in Saturday's rivalry matchup?

Portland Looking To Start Winning Streak

Portland has been one of the most consistent teams over the course of their history in MLS, but making it five straight playoff appearances this season seems like it might be a tough task. After five games, Portland only has two wins and no draws, and sit on six points and are a point behind Real Salt Lake for the last playoff spot, albeit with quite a bit of soccer to go. One issue Portland continues to find itself in is the struggle to win the big games. They showed the issue each of the last two seasons, losing early on in the MLS Playoffs after strong regular seasons, and then again against Seattle just two weeks ago, despite outplaying the Western Conference leader. Another issue contributing towards Portland’s slow start this season has been their inclusion in the CONCACAF Champions League, where trans-continental travel and extra games seem to be taking a toll on their play. Last week though might have seen the Timbers start to turn a corner after taking down the Earthquakes on the road. Despite being out-possessed and outshot 20-18, Portland used timely finishing to grab three crucial points that might change the trajectory of the season.

The Timbers are still searching for a breakout star up front in the attack between their veteran and youth options. So far on the season, six different players have a goal each, but it seems like youngster and homegrown player, Eryk Williamson, might be grabbing hold of the attack with his team-leading two assists to go along with a goal. Jeremy Ebobisse tied for the team lead in goals last year with nine, but is yet to get one this year after appearing in three games, but the staff knows that he has the potential to change his fortune around at any time. Diego Valeri was the other player with nine goals on the team last year, but he’s yet to bag one too. If the Timbers can get Valeri and Ebobisse going, along with Williamson’s flashes of brilliance already this year, it could mean another return to the playoffs. The question though is just how long it’ll take for the offense to get going and will it be too late once they are able to start scoring?

Portland has a solid back line between their internationals in Jose Van Rankin and Claudio Bravo, but are still missing elite fullbacks that can help get forward and aid in the attack. The midfield continues to be a dominant force, between Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes, in addition to Valeri and Williamson, and will always give them a chance to compete in any game. While possessing might not be their strong suit, getting into tackles and winning the ball is definitely within their purview and is something that can continue to take shape as the season progresses. The lack of youth in the roster continues to be a concern though, not necessarily for Saturday’s game, but for the future of the club as a whole. As some of their rivals have homegrowns numbering in the double-digits, Portland has few on their roster and even fewer contributing in key moments.

Galaxy Returning To Historical Form

For much of MLS history, the Galaxy found themselves as the figurehead of the league and were the first team in league history to get to five championships. The last title though was back in 2014 and since then it’s been a struggle to find consistency year in and year out. Last year saw the Galaxy finish 10th in the Western Conference and miss the playoffs, while also missing out in 2017 and 2018. Known for the constant number of superstars coming in and out of the club, this year has seen the Galaxy find success with a somewhat lesser-known group of players than maybe what they’ve historically had. The Galaxy are sitting in second place with the second-most points in all of MLS and have won two matches in a row, dominating Austin and finding a way to beat the odds and take down cross-town rival LAFC 2-1. The wins have built momentum in the club for the first time in a while and it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep it going on the road.

Javier Hernandez has found a career resurgence in Los Angeles, with an outstanding seven goals in only five games. Hernandez has been known as a dominant striker internationally for years, but a few down years had kept his name off the radar heading into this year. Jonathan dos Santos has added a goal as well from off the wing, while USMNT veterans Sacha Kljestan and Sebastian Lletget have combined for the other two goals on the season. The assist list is a little lengthier for the Galaxy, with seven players having an assist each, and just shows the attacking depth of this team from all around the field.

The backline is more of a concern for the galaxy, at least projecting out further into the season. Julian Araujo is a one of a kind talent in the league, but sometimes gets caught too high in attacking mode, leaving the Galaxy vulnerable in the back. The other leader in the back is Jorge Villafana, but besides those two it’s a group of veterans who are quickly becoming overmatched in the league. One player to keep an eye on in Saturday’s game is Efrain Alvarez in the midfield. The former USYNT team member, now seemingly committed to Mexico, has the ability to come in and change the game with one free kick or chance, as he’s shown both domestically and internationally over the last few years, and could be a crucial sparkplug off the bench if needed.

Pick: LA Galaxy (+305)

There’s great value on the Galaxy in this one, even with the fact they’ll be going on the road. They have the best and hottest player in this game overall with Javier Hernandez and he is on an absolute scoring tear that seems like nobody on Portland will be able to stop. The Timbers have also struggled to find consistent scoring and with the athleticism in the midfield and in part of the back line for the Galaxy, it seems like Portland’s scoring woes might continue into the weekend. The Galaxy will definitely be able to bag two if not three goals against the Portland backline, and seeing Portland score multiple goals against a team of the Galaxy’s experience in the back doesn’t add up. It’ll be a tough game, but Hernandez will be the difference as the Galaxy get another crucial three points.

Pick: Over 3

Neither of these teams has struggled to score, though Portland has struggled to find consistency in who is scoring the goals on their end. For the Galaxy, Hernandez is a one-man wrecking crew and is averaging over a goal per game. He should find the back of the net once if not twice in this one. In the last five games between the two teams, the over of three goals would be a winner four of those times, with a push the fifth time. Last year saw seven goals, nine goals, five goals, and three goals, scored across the four games overall. To see less than three goals tomorrow would be unlikely, so the over is definitely the play.