Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders Prediction, Preview and Odds -8/15/21
The fiercest rivalry in MLS is set to take place on Sunday night when the Seattle Sounders visit the Portland Timbers at Providence Park. Seattle currently sits in second place in the Western Conference at 9-6-3, but has hit a bit of a rough patch in MLS play as it tied FC Dallas 1-1 at home on August 4 with the draw hitting at +280 odds. Portland holds down sixth place at 7-2-8 after picking up a 3-2 home win over Real Salt Lake last Saturday as a -108 favorite.
These teams met back in early May, with Seattle winning 2-1 at Portland. The Timbers hold a narrow 14-7-13 lead in MLS competition, although the rivalry dates back nearly 50 years in other leagues.
Seattle hopes Lodeiro’s return sparks boost
The Sounders are now winless in their last three MLS matches after tying FC Dallas at home a week ago, but the good news is they picked up a 3-0 mid-week win over Liga MX side Tigres ML with star Nicolas Lodeiro scoring a fantastic goal in his first action of the season after dealing with injuries. Seattle had a great chance to beat Dallas in its most recent MLS match too after Freddy Montero broke a scoreless tie in the 72nd minute, only for Franco Jara to even things in stoppage time.
It was a disappointing result against Dallas, as the Sounders had 16 shots and doubled up the visitors in attempts on target 6-3. All-Star Joao Paulo recorded the assist on Montero’s goal, while Stefan Cleveland made two saves.
A shorthanded Seattle offense has had trouble finding the back of the net lately, bringing its season numbers to an average of 1.44 goals and 12.88 shots per match. That’s typically been enough considering how elite Seattle’s defense is, as opponents are only managing 0.78 goals and 10.05 shots per game while getting shutout six times.
Raul Ruidiaz is headed to the All-Star Game and remains in the MVP discussion with a team-high 11 goals. Montero, a club legend who is back after eight years elsewhere, has scored four goals, while Paulo has a team-high five assists.
While Seattle is slowly getting healthier after being so shorthanded it had to make hardship signings a few weeks ago, some huge names like forward Jordan Morris (ACL) and standout goalkeeper Stefan Frei (blood clots) have been out long-term. All-Star left back Nouhou recently returned to full training after dealing with an adductor injury, and there’s hope he will at least be available off the bench Sunday.
Portland in playoff position after huge win
The Timbers were in dire need of a win last weekend after grabbing just two points in their previous three games, and came through against a fellow team battling for playoff positioning in the middle of the table in Real Salt Lake. Things got off to a great start Saturday with Dairon Asprilla scoring from the penalty spot 10 minutes in before Yimmi Chara doubled the lead in the 30th on a spectacular play, and Felipe Mora’s insurance tally in the 62nd proved to be important as Real Salt Lake fought back.
Portland had to hold off a strong effort, as Real Salt Lake racked up 23 shots, nine of which went on target compared to three for the Timbers, while owning 65% possession. Seven saves from AljaĹľ IvaÄŤiÄŤ helped, while Asprilla and Sebastian Blanco recorded one assist apiece.
A huge amount of injuries earlier in the season holds back Portland’s overall stats, as it is averaging only 1.35 goals and 12.88 shots per match. Defense has been an even bigger struggle with the Timbers allowing 1.71 goals and 14.64 shots per game while keeping just three clean sheets.
Mora has been Portland’s overall best player with a team-high six goals while adding one assist. Aspirlla is also having a strong year with four goals and two assists, while star Diego Valeri has scored twice with one helper in limited action at the age of 35.
One key absence for Portland moving forward is second-leading scorer Jeremy Ebobisse, who was dealt to the San Jose Earthquakes for allocation money last week. Midfielder Andy Polo underwent quad surgery in May, while striker Jaroslaw Niezgoda is rehabbing a torn ACL. Goaltender Jeff Attinella, who has made three starts this year, is dealing with a knee problem.
Side prediction: Sounders +185
Total: Over 2.5 (-125)
While it hasn’t been Seattle’s best stretch of play, a lineup that was much closer to full strength last Tuesday demolished Tigres from Liga MX, which is not an easy feat for any MLS side. That shows just how good the healthy Sounders can be, and they can handle a middling Portland team that is struggling defensively.
Even though there are still some big names for the Sounders out, the importance of Lodeiro’s return cannot be overstated as he is one of MLS’ best playmakers with 33 goals and 40 assists over the past five years. Ruidiaz is already having a spectacular season as is thanks to his finishing ability, and will be even more unstoppable with both Lodeiro and Paulo providing service.
That’s going to cause all kinds of problems for a Portland defense that has allowed 10 goals in its last four matches and was fortunate to not end up worse off against Real Salt Lake. Grabbing a rivalry win on the road is always tough, but Seattle has already won at Portland this season and is worth a shot at these odds.
Most of the remaining injuries for the Sounders are on the defensive side, as Nouhou is a big loss after a spectacular start to the season while Frei is one of MLS’ best goaltenders. Seattle’s defense is still good, but Portland has enough here to at least avoid the shutout as its current lineup is above average offensively, with Asprilla having a career year and the Chara brothers providing playmaking.
There’s not a lot of promising signs for the Portland defense, which has allowed 31.4 expected goals this season, the worst in the Western Conference, with goaltending issues not helping any. These teams got to three goals in the first meeting, and Seattle should do enough damage to ensure another over on Sunday.
