Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 8/7/21

Two teams close together in the Western Conference table will fight for positioning on Saturday night when Real Salt Lake visits the Portland Timbers at Providence Park. Real Salt Lake currently holds down seventh place in the West at 5-6-5 after dropping a 1-0 road contest to the LA Galaxy on Wednesday as a +333 underdog. Portland is one spot behind at 6-2-8 after getting a 1-1 home draw against the San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday, with the tie hitting at -117 odds.

This is the first meeting between these two clubs since October of last year, when Real Salt Lake won 2-1 at home to extend its lead in the all-time series to 11-8-9.

Struggles on the road continue as Real Salt Lake blanked by Galaxy

Real Salt Lake still hasn’t won a game outside of Rio Tinto Stadium since opening weekend as it couldn’t pull off an upset of the Galaxy on Wednesday night. Los Angeles controlled the vast majority of the match and eventually broke through shortly after halftime on Efrain Alvarez’s short-range effort for the only goal of the match, as Real Salt Lake didn’t get a great chance until well into stoppage time when Damir Kreilach nearly stole a point.

While possession was just about even and Real Salt Lake actually held a 15-14 advantage in total shots, the Galaxy had twice as many shots on target with eight. Real Salt Lake backup goaltender Zac MacMath was the only bright spot with seven saves.

Even with a recent downturn, Real Salt Lake has been solid offensively with an average of 1.50 goals on 11.37 shots per match. The defense is near the top of MLS as well, with opponents are averaging just 1.06 goals on 14.37 shots per game, while Real Salt Lake has kept four clean sheets including two straight prior to Wednesday’s loss.

Kreilach has been Real Salt Lake’s most productive player by far with seven goals and four assists this season. Rubio Rubin has added five goals and three assists, while Aaron Herrera has dished out a team-high five helpers.

Top goalkeeper David Ochoa missed the last game with a quad problem and isn’t expected to play on Saturday. Defender Toni Datkovic hasn’t made his team debut due to a quad problem, while center backs Andrew Brody and Zack Farnsworth are sidelined for undisclosed reasons.

Portland settles for a point to move into playoff position

Grabbing all three points at home against a bad San Jose team would have been a crucial boost for the Timbers, but they are now at least above the postseason cut line after a hard-fought draw. After a slow start for both offenses, San Jose struck first in the 24th minute before Felipe Mora equalized off a corner on the last kick of the first half, and the second brought no scoring despite the Timbers generating some great chances.

The Timbers had a statistical advantage with 59% possession and 21 total shots, although only four of those were on target compared to eight for the Earthquakes. Bill Tuiloma was credited with the assist on Portland’s goal, while Diego Chara was sent off late for two quick yellow cards.

Injuries have hurt Portland for much of the season and it has poor stats on both sides of the ball with an average of 1.25 goals on 12.93 shots per match. Portland’s defense has also had issues, allowing 1.69 goals and 14.06 shots per match while keeping three clean sheets.

Mora now takes over the team lead with five goals while also adding an assist despite starting just seven matches. Dairon Asprilla has scored three times, while Yimmi Chara is tied for the team lead with two assists.

Diego Chara will be suspended for Saturday’s match due to the red card. The Timbers made a major trade on Wednesday as well, with second-leading scorer Jeremy Ebobisse getting dealt to the Earthquakes. Portland has gradually gotten healthier over the course of the year, although midfielder Andy Polo (quad), goaltender Jeff Attinella (knee) and defender Ismaila Jome (Achilles) are out.

Side prediction: Portland Timbers +110

Total: Over 2.5 (-145)

Given all the problems Real Salt has had winning away from home, the Timbers are worth a bet at plus odds in this one. There isn’t much to separate these two teams to date this season, and Portland is only going to get better as some key players return from injury.

Real Salt Lake’s mark of 1-2-3 away from Rio Tinto Stadium doesn’t inspire much confidence here, and putting the ball in the back of the net is an issue as its been over 250 minutes since the team scored on the road. It’s a different story at home for Portland as it has gotten a result in three straight matches at Providence Park, as some key players like Diego Valeri, Eryk Willamson and Yimmi Chara have either gotten healthy or recently returned from international duty.

Being down its top goalkeeper could also come into play here for a Real Salt Lake defensive unit that has generally been steady. Portland is currently a more talented team than its record indicates, and fading Real Salt Lake on the road has been a smart bet this season.

Both teams should be able to score this one, as this is a vulnerable Portland defense that has allowed 29 expected goals on the season. Real Salt Lake has a couple of strong playmakers who can take advantage, as both Kreilach and Rubin are having monster seasons by advanced metrics.

Getting dominated by the Galaxy mid-week doesn’t bode well for Real Salt Lake here, as Portland’s forwards will be more effective at finishing off any pressure they create. A 2-1 win for the Timbers is on the Cards, as they should see some offensive improvement for the rest of the season just by virtue of a healthier roster.