San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 10/20/21

Struggling Western Conference will square off on Wednesday night when Austin FC visits the San Jose Earthquakes at PayPal Park. Austin is in last place in the West at 7-4-18 after dropping a 1-0 home decision to Minnesota United last Saturday as a +155 underdog. San Jose is coming off a crushing 3-1 road loss to LAFC over the weekend as a huge +451 underdog, and is now in 10th place at 8-9-12.

This is the third meeting of the season between San Jose and expansion Austin. Both matchups came in Austin, with the teams battling to a scoreless draw in mid-June before the Earthquakes picked up a 4-3 in a wild game back on September 18.

Austin offense can’t break through as team eliminated from playoff contention

Scoring has been an issue in Austin’s first season in MLS, and it was blanked by Minnesota on Saturday night despite carrying the run of play. The game’s lone goal came in the 16th minute as Minnesota broke through, and Austin couldn’t put away a number of dangerous chances in the second half as the equalizer never came.

Austin had plenty of opportunities with 66% possession and 19 shot attempts, including eight on target to Minnesota’s three. Cecilio Domínguez and Sebastian Driussi eached missed goals by a few inches in the last minute of match, yet it wasn’t meant to be as Austin was officially eliminated from playoff contention in its inaugural season.

"We put ourselves in position to win. For me the performance we put in was fantastic and that’s what a playoff team looks like. If we were able to look like that all year, I think it’d be a very different discussion,” goaltender Brad Stuver told the Austin-American Statesman.

The offense just hasn’t gotten going for Austin, which is averaging exactly one goal and 13.37 shots per match so far in its first season. Austin’s defense has been closer to average with 1.55 goals and 14.89 shots per match while keeping five clean sheets on the year.

Domínguez is Austin’s best player with seven goals and three assists in his debut MLS season. Diego Fagundez is also having a nice year with six goals and three assists, while star Alexander Ring has scored four times.

Starting defender Matt Besler is not expected to play as he remains in concussion protocol, while Ben Sweat has also been missing from the Austin backline after suffering a torn ACL in April. Midfielder Ulises Segura, striker Danny Hoesen and forward Aaron Schoenfeld have all been out long-term with knee injuries.

Earthquakes have work to do in last five matches after losing at LAFC

San Jose will need to be nearly flawless for the rest of the season after its playoff hopes took a huge hit with a demoralizing loss at LAFC over the weekend. LAFC scored just three minutes into the game before converting a penalty in the 28th, and Carlos Fierro’s goal off a corner kick in the second half wasn’t enough for a rally as the hosts added some insurance just before stoppage time.

The Earthquakes held 63% possession while outshooting LAFC 15-11 overall with seven of their attempts going on target, but struggled defensively. Javier Eduardo López was credited with an assist on the San Jose goal, while JT Marcinkowski came up with two saves.

“I think we were imprecise in the first half when we recovered the ball. LAFC put their chances away and we did not. The game became even. We were a team trying to play short from the back, and LAFC tried playing the long ball from behind. In the second half, we were a different team. We were precise, creating chances. We scored a goal, brought the margin closer and in those moments we could have tied the match,” manager Matias Almeyda said to San Jose’s website.

San Jose’s offense has been inconsistent, putting up an average of 1.24 goals and 12.13 shots per match overall this season. The Earthquakes defense has struggled for the most part with 1.62 goals and 15.31 shots allowed per match while keeping just four clean sheets on the year.

Lopez is having a terrific season to lead the San Jose attack with with 11 goals and three assists. Cristian Espinoza has dealt out a team-high six assists while scoring three times, while 18-year-old Caden Clark is a rising star with four goals and four assists.

San Jose enters the mid-week clash almost fully healthy, with only reserve midfielder Siad Haji (thigh) and backup goaltender Matt Bersano (hand) on the injury report.

Side prediction: San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 (-118)

Total: Under 3 (-120)

Austin is struggling on the road right now with five straight losses away from home and hasn’t shown enough attack to get a result in a game like this. While San Jose has plenty of flaws as a team, it will find a way to beat the last-place team in what is essentially a must-win match, and should be a bigger favorite given Austin’s issues right now.

The Earthquakes at least have managed roughly average metrics on offense, and have started to pick things up lately in particular with 14 goals over their last nine matches. That’s largely due to Lopez being in terrific form en route to winning MLS Player of the Month in September as he combines with Clark to lead a dangerous attack that put four past Austin just a month ago.

Austin doesn’t have the playmakers to match, as it has just 1.02 expected goals per game overall this year to rank third-worst in MLS. Things get even worse for Austin on the road where it is just 2-2-10 for the season, making San Jose the pick at home here.

Even though the last meeting between these teams was a seven-goal shootout, the teams combined for just 3.1 expected goals that night, and this game will be closer to the scoreless draw they played three months ago. It’s always possible that the Austin offense gets blanked, as nine of its 12 scoreless games have come on the road.

Austin does have a respectable defense that ranks well above the league average with 1.37 expected goals allowed per game, and it will try to take some of the air out of the game on the road. San Jose’s offense isn’t good enough to cover this by itself, and this will be a much lower scoring game than the previous meeting between these two.