San Jose Earthquakes vs. Houston Dynamo Prediction, Preview and Odds - 7/24/21

Two teams near the bottom of the Western Conference table will look to get their seasons back on track Saturday night when the Houston Dynamo visit the San Jose Earthquakes at PayPal Park. Houston holds down ninth place in the West at 3-7-4 after battling the Vancouver Whitecaps to a scoreless draw on Tuesday, with the tie hitting at +162 odds. San Jose is coming off a 1-1 road draw with Sporting Kansas City at massive +544 odds on Wednesday night, and is now in 11th place at 3-4-7.

These teams met early in the season on April 16, with Houston winning 2-1 at home. The Dynamo now lead the all-time series 14-3-9.

Houston settles for a point in defensive struggle

Grabbing all three points from struggling Vancouver could have been a huge development for the Dynamo’s playoff hopes, but they settled for a draw on Tuesday while getting blanked for the second straight game. Houston had two of the best chances of the night as Maxi Urruti’s free-kick clanged off the post in the 25th minute while Darwin Quintero and Memo Rodriguez nearly connected for a goal midway through the second half just moments after being subbed on, yet no breakthrough would come.

It was a fairly even if uneventful game, with both teams recording eight shots and Vancouver holding a slight edge in possession at 52%. Quintero recorded the only shot on target of the night, as Houston goaltender Marko Maric wasn’t ever pressed into a save.

That was another poor performance from a shaky Houston offense that is averaging just 1.14 goals and 10.78 shot attempts per game. Houston’s defense has kept the team afloat, as opponents are scoring 1.36 goals on 14.5 shots per match.

Urruti has been Houston’s best player by far with six goals while adding one assist. Tyler Pasher is also having a strong year with three goals and two assists in just eight matches, with Rodriguez and Fifa Picault adding two goals apiece.

The Dynamo will be severely shorthanded for at least one more match, as Darwin Ceren, Maynor Figeuroa, Boniek Garcia, Ariel Lassiter and Pasher are all playing with their respective national teams in the knockout rounds of the Gold Cup.

Earthquakes can’t quite pull off upset over Kansas City, winless streak at nine

Getting a draw on the road against a very good Kansas City team is a much better result than we’ve seen most of the season for the Earthquakes, but they will still be frustrated after allowing the equalizer deep into stoppage time. After Kansas City controlled the first half without finding a breakthrough, Nathan Cardoso’s header put San Jose up 1-0 in the 53rd minute, where the score would remain until Daniel Salloli tied the score in the 94th.

It was a physical match with tempers rising throughout, with the two teams combining for 35 fouls and five yellow cards in addition to San Jose’s Judson Silva Tavares being sent off in stoppage time. Kansas City largely carried the play with eight shots on target to San Jose’s three while holding 55% possession.

It has been a struggle in just about every facet for the Earthquakes this season, as they are averaging just 1.14 goals on 13.14 shots per match. San Jose’s defense is allowing 1.71 goals and 16.42 shots per game, and its lone clean sheet came on June 16 in a scoreless draw against Austin FC.

Those issues on offense haven’t stopped 17-year-old Cade Cowell from putting up an impressive season with four goals and four assists to lead the team in both categories. Javier Eduardo Lopez has added three goals and one assist, while all-time MLS leading goalscorer Chris Wondolowski has found the back of the net twice in mostly a bench role.

Cowell was called up by the USMNT for the Gold Cup last weekend, joining key midfielder Jackson Yueill. Starting midfielder Tommy Thompson is out with a knee problem, while reserve striker Benjamin Kikanovic is also listed on the injury report.

Side Prediction: Houston Dynamo +0.5 (-145)

Total: Under 2.5 (+125)

Neither team looks particularly good right now, especially considering who they are missing on international duty, but it’s hard to back a San Jose team that hasn’t picked up a win in nine matches. The Dynamo defense figures to be the best unit on the field Saturday night, and it will help Houston at least get a draw against a bad team on the road, if not win outright.

Houston’s only loss in the last five matches came at first place Seattle, and a defense that is at least hovering around league average in most metrics held the Earthquakes to just eight shot attempts in the first meeting. San Jose’s defense isn’t on that level with 23.2 expected goals allowed on the season, and the only team the Earthquakes have been able to hold off the scoreboard, this season is expansion Austin FC, who has the worst offense in MLS.

With so much of their playmaking in Clark and Yueill off with the international team, and already bad Earthquakes offense is going to have trouble getting on the board here. Back Houston’s defense to get a result, and the Dynamo winning outright at valuable plus odds also isn’t a bad bet.

San Jose won’t be the only team that’s shorthanded, as the Dynamo have five players in the Gold Cup knockout rounds and haven’t scored in 267 plus minutes as a result. While Urruti is certainly capable of making things happen and will probably be the best player on the field Saturday, the Dynamo only have managed 14 expected goals on the year.

The Earthquakes have scored multiple goals just once in the last 10 matches, as despite some decent metrics they have a hard time finishing chances. These teams combined for three goals in the first meeting this season, and both offenses are much worse now due to international call-ups.