San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/12/21

The top two teams in the Western Conference will square off on Wednesday night when the Seattle Sounders visit the San Jose Earthquakes at PayPal Park. Seattle currently has the best record in MLS at 3-1-0 after taking down the archrival Portland Timbers 2-1 last Sunday to cash in as a +193 road underdog. San Jose is not far behind at 3-0-1 and picked up its third straight win last weekend by taking down Real Salt Lake 2-1 over the weekend on the road to hit as a +270 underdog.

These teams met four times last season, with Seattle winning twice and the other two finishing in scoreless draws. The Sounders hold a 13-10-8 advantage all time.

Sounders continue unbeaten start with rivalry win

Despite losing some key pieces in the offseason, the ever-consistent Sounders look like one of the title favorites yet again with the best record in MLS after taking down the hated Timbers on the road last weekend. Raul Ruidiaz opened the scoring in the 63rd minute on a penalty kick just moments after a strange sequence where the Timbers missed twice in a row from the spot, and Fredy Montero’s header in the 79th helped the Sounders get some important breathing room as Portland was only able to respond with one in stoppage time.

Joao Paulo provided the assist on the Montero goal with a well-taken free kick. Portland had a slight edge with 55% possession and outshot Seattle 12-11, but Stefan Frei was able to keep a clean sheet until the 94th minute. While Frei was found to be off his line after stopping a Diego Valeri penalty shot early in the second half, Valeri kicked his retake attempt directly off the post.

The Sounders have dominated on both sides of the ball with an average of 2.50 goals per game on 13 shots per game offensively. Opponents are only managing 0.5 goals and 11.5 shots per game against Seattle, and its +8 goal differential is the best in MLS so far. Three of Seattle’s four matches have gone over the betting total, with a 1-1 draw against LAFC resulting in a push.

Raul Ruidiaz leads the Sounders with five goals, only one behind MLS scoring leader Javier Hernandez of the Los Angeles Galaxy. Montero now has two goals in his return to Seattle after eight years elsewhere, while Brad Smith has two goals and an assist.

Forward Jordan Morris, who piled up 10 goals and seven assists last year, is expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL Seattle could be down another one of its best playmakers, as Nicolas Lodeiro has been limited to 25 minutes all season by a quad strain and was not available last Sunday against Portland.

Earthquakes rally late for third straight win

After barely squeaking into the playoffs last season as the No. 8 seed, the Earthquakes look significantly improved to start 2021 and were able to take down undefeated Real Salt Lake last Saturday thanks to some late heroics by all-time MLS leading goalscorer Chris Wondolowski. After Real Salt Lake’s defense controlled the first 83 minutes of the match, Wondolowski came off the bench to equalize on a point blank shot before adding another on a header four minutes later.

The two teams each racked up 15 shots apiece, while San Jose had most of the ball with 59% possession. San Jose goalkeeper JT Marcinkowski stopped three of four shots on target, only being beaten just before half on an impressive bicycle kick goal by Rubio Rubin.

San Jose is tied with Seattle for most goals in MLS with an average of 2.50 per game on 12.25 shots per match. The defense hasn’t quite been as strong with opponents putting up 1.25 goals and 14.75 shots per match, leading to all four San Jose games going over the betting total.

Cade Cowell is already making an impact at the age of 17 with two goals and three assists. Jackson Yueill has also found the back of the net twice, while metrics indicate Wondolowski has been San Jose’s most dangerous attacking player with 2.25 expected goals in just 66 minutes of playing time.

Starting center back Oswaldo Alanis has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is not expected to play on Wednesday. Reserve center back Jacob Akanyirige is also out with a hip problem.

Side prediction: Sounders +125

Total: Over 2.5 (-150)

It’s hard to pick against the Sounders right now, as they are firing on all cylinders as both young players and veteran depth pieces performing well on both sides of the ball to make up for some big names being out injured. San Jose looks like a team that could make some noise this season, but hasn’t faced an opponent nearly this good during its three-game winning streak and has some questions in defense that the Sounders can take advantage of.

The Earthquakes are actually getting outshot while giving up a lot of dangerous chances despite the winning record, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Playing with fire like that against Seattle isn’t going to work out, as Ruidiaz is on his way to potentially leading the league in goals while Montero is much more than just a sentimental signing as he still has something to contribute.

The difference in the backline will be key, as Seattle has only conceded twice, including holding the powerful LAFC offense scoreless after the second minute of the match. Until they falter, picking the Sounders to win at plus odds is the play here.

San Jose enters this match unbeaten thanks to the offense, which has put up a total of nine goals during this three-game winning streak and is backed by strong metrics. Wondolowski is having no trouble generating chances at 38 years old in a substitute role, Cristian Espinoza is playing very well on the wing, and Cowell looks like he could soon be a huge star in MLS.

A Seattle offense that has piled up 8.1 expected goals already going against an Earthquakes defense that has allowed 5.7 expected goals looks like a mismatch, and San Jose missing its best center back doesn’t help. San Jose can likely avoid getting blanked here, making a 2-1 Seattle win the most likely result.