Sporting Kansas City vs. Chicago Fire Prediction, Preview and Odds - 9/11/21

Sporting Kansas City will look to keep pace near the top of the Western Conference table by taking care of business on Saturday night when it hosts the Chicago Fire at Children’s Mercy Park. Chicago is having a rough season at 6-5-11 to rank 12th in the Eastern Conference, although it is coming off a 1-0 win over the New York Red Bulls as a huge +370 road underdog back on August 28. Kansas City was hammered 4-0 at LAFC last Friday as a +215 underdog, but remains just two points out of first in the West at 11-7-5.

These teams have not met since October of last season when they battled to a 2-2 draw at Soldier Field. Chicago leads the all-time series over Kansas City 25-13-19, but is winless in the last five head-to-head meetings.

Fire get first road win in almost two years

A generally rough season for Chicago at least hit a high note heading into the international break, as the Fire took all three points on the road for the first time since the last match of the 2019 season by beating the New York Red Bulls 1-0. On a quiet night for both offenses, Robert Beric’s goal in the 32nd minute that was initially ruled offside before going to VAR made the difference, and the Fire looked closer to a second than New York did to an opener for the rest of the match.

While New York had a huge 20-9 advantage in total shots while also holding 59% possession, Chicago steered four attempts on target compared to two for the Red Bulls. Goaltender Bobby Shuttleworth dealt with the few dangerous attempts New York had well, while Alvaro Medran nearly added a stoppage time insurance goal only to be denied by the post.

“Obviously, it feels really good to have an [away] win. One-and-a-half years almost is a long time,” head coach Raphael Wicky said to the Chicago Sun-Times. “We [have] had prettier games on the road. We [have] had games where we played much better football. But this was a great team fight, and the team showed a great mentality and spirit.”

It’s been a struggle on both sides of the ball, with the Chicago offense putting up an average of 1.09 goals and 13.54 shots per match. Opponents have racked up 1.50 goals on 14.22 shots per game, with the Fire now keeping five clean sheets following the shutout win last time out.

Luka Stojanovic is the focal point offensively for the Fire with seven goals and one assist despite only appearing in 19 matches including 12 starts. Medran leads the team with five assists and has added a goal, while Boris Sekulic is having a nice season with two goals and four helpers.

The Fire have gotten much healthier compared to earlier in the summer, but are still missing one of their top midfielders as Ignacio Aliseda is out with a shin problem. Goaltender Kenneth Kronholm, who started 25 matches from 2019-20, has not appeared this year due to a knee problem.

Kansas City looks for quick recovery after blowout

A six-match unbeaten streak came to an end last Friday for Kansas City, as it was overwhelmed 4-0 at LAFC in the worst performance of the season for what has generally been one of the best teams in MLS. Kansas City was on the front foot in the first half with several good chances, but LAFC scored the opener off a corner kick in the 18th minute, and things really fell apart after Roger Espinoza was shown a straight red in the 58th, as the hosts scored twice quickly after before converting a penalty in the final minutes for good measure.

Kansas City held 60% possession, but was otherwise outplayed as LAFC racked up 15 shots including eight on target. Alan Pulido’s wicked long-range strike in the 29th was the best chance Kansas City had, as it only finished with four attempts on target.

“It’s profiling, that’s all I can tell you,” manager Peter Vermes said to Kansascity.com of Espinoza’s dismissal after being frustrated with the officiating in previous games against LAFC as well. “Because it’s Roger Espinoza, he gets a red card. “I’ve watched it. If you watch and you know the game, you understand that it’s accidental contact and that he actually is stepping his foot, and he actually goes underneath the other foot.”

This is one of the most balanced teams in MLS, as the high-powered Kansas City offense has piled up 1.61 goals and 14.60 shots per game. Kansas City also has strong numbers defensively with an average of 1.13 goals and 11.86 shots per game while keeping five clean sheets.

Daniel Salloi has been one of the best players in all of MLS with 12 goals and five assists to pace the prolific Kansas City offense. Pulido has added eight goals and two assists, while Johnny Russell is having a nice season with four goals and four helpers.

The team is not appealing Espinoza’s red card suspension for Saturday’s game despite the comments from Vermes after the game. Defensemen Jaylin Lindsey and Nicolas Isimat-Mirin, who have combined to start 16 games this season, are both questionable with hamstring problems. Midfielder Felipe Hernandez has been limited to six matches for personal reasons. Salloi is just coming back from international duty with Hungary but is expected to play, as he is not subject to quarantine rules.

Side prediction: Kansas City -1 (+110)

Total: Over 3 (+105)

Despite the most recent results for both teams, Kansas City is the far better roster on both sides of the ball and is worth a bet to roll in a nice bounce-back spot. A win over the hapless Red Bulls isn’t going to suddenly make the Fire a good team on the road as they still have a miserable 1-1-7 record away from home this season, and Kansas City is more than good enough to handle bad teams.

A combination of having a ton of firepower up front coupled with Vermes’ free-flowing system makes Kansas City one of the most lethal offenses in all of MLS, as it has piled up a whopping 2.15 expected goals per game at home to trail only LAFC. Chicago just doesn’t have the high-level playmakers beyond Stojanovic to keep up, especially when considering the mismatch on defense as the Fire give up a ton of dangerous chances on the road.

The Fire’s seven losses on the road have come by an average margin of defeat of 1.85 goals and they have just one victory all season over a team that is higher than eighth place in the table regardless of venue. Kansas City is better all over the field, and will quickly recover from last Friday’s loss with a blowout win here.