Starting Nine (Week of March 26th)

The MLB regular season officially kicks off on Thursday so our original Starting Nine remains intact. Instead, this week, I’ll focus on potential future wins Over/Under teams to consider this season.

Starting Nine (Week of March 26th)

Top Five Win Total Overs

  1. New York Mets (Over 81.5 wins) - The Mets signing of JD Martinez late in camp should bolster an offensive that looked shaky. Their rotation could take some time to come together with Senga out until May but this could be a sneaky good rotation minus all the big names of years past.

  1. SF Giants (Over 83.5 wins) - The Giants added three bats to their lineup including South Korean-import Lee who could completely upgrade their lineup from the leadoff spot. The addition of NL Cy Young winner Snell late in camp gives the Giants a dominant one-two punch with Snell and Webb.

  1. Washington Nationals (Over 65 wins) - Veterans Gallo and Rosario add depth to the Nats’ young lineup. There is some depth to that rotation too and star power if Gray makes the leap to a true ace.

  1. Cincinnati Reds (Over 81.5 wins) - The Reds lineup is solid even while opening the season with McClain and Friedl on the IL. The key to this season will be whether or not Frankie Montas can return to his Oakland form and give them a true ace to go along with Greene.

  1. Boston Red Sox (Over 77.5 wins) - The Red Sox rotation is a huge question mark but Bello looks like a guy who could make the leap as an ace and Whitlock, after a tough off-the-field season last year, was lights out in his final tuneup for the season. The Red Sox can always hit. If they get the pitching, they can win 85+.

Top Five Win Total Unders

  1. New York Yankees (Under 91.5 wins) - This team gives me 1970s Red Sox vibes, a lineup full of DHs. Soto is solid in rightfield and Verdugo is a very slight upgrade in leftfield. Where to put Judge and Stanton? They can’t afford to put Judge in harm’s way too often with his foot and Stanton’s annual breakdown will come soon enough. LeMaheau is already on the IL with a foot injury bringing into question whether he can play the field regularly. Did I mention Cole has shoulder issues?

  1. Houston Astros (Under 93.5 wins) - It is hard to go against the Astros with the level of consistency they’ve shown in recent years. I’m worried about this lineup, particularly at the top with Aluve a year older and Bregman not showing the same pop for consecutive years. Can Verlander produce another year? A fall under 90 wins is not unreasonable.

  1. Texas Rangers (Under 88.5 wins) - The Rangers could easily drop back this season with several question marks as the season starts. The pitching staff is completely banged-up. After last year’s deep run, is anyone confident that Eovaldi will be a reliable #1 while waiting for the likes of deGrom and Scherzer to return?

  1. Tampa Bay Rays (Under 84.5 wins) - This team has consistently put together 90+ win seasons while losing key pieces every year. A quick glance at that rotation makes me think it’ll catch up to them this year. Losing Bradley to start the season and hoping for several rehabbing pitchers to come back and be key contributors may be too much to expect even for the resilient Rays.

  1. Miami Marlins (Under 78.5 wins) - The Marlins look primed to take a step back this season with a rotation gleaming with injuries. Cabrera’s shoulder injury should be a huge red flag for a pitcher who has poured in a ton of innings over the last few seasons. The lineup is decent but may be relying on too many veterans to have above-average seasons.

*All odds courtesy of

By Mark Ruelle

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Mark Ruelle

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.