Super Bowl 56 Prop Bets from our Experts
After the longest season the NFL has ever seen, we have now come to the end with the Super Bowl as the Los Angeles Rams battle the Cincinnati Bengals. I know, these are the teams we all had penciled into square off in the biggest game of the year, right? LOL. A few of our writers have come up with their best 15 props for the big game, so let's get to it.
Check out more Super Bowl props on Heading Back to the Window:
Props and odds are all courtesy of BETMGM.
From David Hess
15. Cam Akers Under 62.5 Yards Rushing (-110): The Bengals are 5th in the league against the run so I will look for the Rams to air it out a hit more. Akers has put up just 48, 48, and 55 yards in his three starts this year and I see him being held in check in this one.
14. Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-145): Joe Burrow has had a great season and he has thrown 38 TDs overall this year, including 12 in his last five games. The Rams are not great against the pass and they just allowed two TD passes to the Niners in their last game.
13. Ja’Marr Chase Longest Reception Under 27.5 (-120): The Rams may be 22nd in the league against the pass, but they are 9th in pass per completion at 9.9 while also ranking 11th in yards per attempt at 6.4. Chase is a big-play threat, but he has topped this total just three times in his last 10 games and I see the Rams concentrating on him, which will keep his big plays to a minimum.
12. Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-225): This play is a bit juicy, which is why I didn’t make it more of a top play. Matthew Stafford has had a strong season with 41 Tds and he has thrown at least two of them in six of his last seven games. He will be facing a Cincinnati defense that is 26th against the pass and has allowed 1.6 passing TDs per game this year.
11. Result Of First Drive - Punt (-115): The nerves will be high for both teams and I expect neither team to have a scoring chance on their first drive.
10. Will There be Three Unanswered Scores - No (+175): This should be a close game throughout and I don’t see either team putting together three unanswered scores. The Bengals have an offense that will be able to keep pace with the Rams and their defense has also been good in the postseason. The Rams also have a defense that will not allow the Bengals to put together three unanswered scores.
9. Ja’Marr Chase To Score, But Rams Win (+140): This is an interesting prop that I like. I do expect the Rams to win the game outright, but I can also see Chase notching a TD. He has been Joe’s favorite target all year and I have already stated that I expect Burrow to throw at least two TDs in the contest. One of them will be to Chase, but unfortunately for the Bengals, they will lose the game.
8. First Rams TD By Odell Beckham Jr. (+600): Going way out on a limb on this one, but I feel that it could be a good bet. Cooper Kupp will have a big game but he will also be double teams a lot and that leaves the door open for Beckham to post the first TD of the game for the Rams. He does have five TD receptions in eight games with the team and also has Super Bowl experience. This should be a very profitable bet.
7. Rams Team Total Over 28.5 (+120): I see the Rams having a good offensive showing in this one. They are one of the best passing teams in the league and the Bengals are 26th against the pass. Cincinnati will score some points but they will also give up plenty and the Rams will flirt with 30 points in this one.
6. Head To Head Rushing Yards - Joe Mixon Over Cam Akers (-130): The Bengals have a better ground game than the Rams do and in expect Joe Mixon to get enough touches to win this head-to-head matchup. Cam Akers has pretty much played in just the last three games and he has rushed for 48,48, and 55 yards in those games. Joe Mixon has run for 1395 yards (incl playoffs) and he has averaged 74.2 ypg on the year. Mixon had 8 yards against the Chiefs last week and I expect him to be a big part of the offense in this one as it will take the pressure off of Burrow.
5. Head To Head Receiving Yards - Tee Higgins Over Odell Beckham Jr. (-125): Ja’Marr Chase is the main guy in the Cincinnati passing offense but you can not ignore the numbers that Tee Higgins has put up down the stretch. He has averaged 85.4 yards per game over the last 10 games and put up a total of 199 yards in his last two. Odell Beckham has 113 yards in the win over the Niners but has still averaged just 49.2 ypg receiving in his 11 games as a Ram this year. This one should be easy.
4. Rams Over 1.5 Touchdowns In The First Half (+100): During the game, I expect the Rams to have more TDs than FGs and they will be good for at least two of them in the first half of this game. The Rams have averaged 16 ppg in the first half in their last three games and the Bengals did allow KC to put up 21 points in the first half in the AFC Title game. The Rams could very well put up three TDs in the first half of this game.
3. Matthew Stafford Over 279.5 Yards Passing (-115): Matthew Staford has thrown for 5791 yards this year, including the playoffs, and has averaged 289.5 ypg in those games. Stafford has thrown for 337 and 366 yards in his last two games and will now face a Cincinnati defense that is 26th in the league against the pass. I would not be surprised to see Stafford hit 300+ yards in this one, especially since the Rams don’t really have a ground attack.
2. Cooper Kupp Over 102.5 Yards Receiving (-115): Yes, the Bengals will double-team Kupp for much of this game but he is still the best receiver in the game and will get his fair share of yards in this one. He averaged 114.5 ypg receiving during the regular season and he put up 183 and 142 yards in his last two games. The Bengals have struggled against the pass this year and I do not see them slowing down Kupp in this one.
1. Matt Gay Extra Points Made Over 2.5 (-115): I already stated that I expect the Rams to score more than 28.5 points in this game and that means they will score more TDs than FGs. The Rams will at least have three TDs in this game and Matt Gay hit 48 of his 49 FG attempts during the regular season. This one should be easy and it could cash by halftime.
From Chris King
We’ve reached the pinnacle of the NFL season as Super Bowl LVI is looming from the shadows of the City of Angels. The Los Angeles Rams represent the NFC but are the “visiting” team in their own building as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals with the Vince Lombardi Trophy hanging in the balance on Sunday, February 13. While there will be plenty of money thrown around in relation to who wins the game, there always are a massive listing of prop bets related to the contest that you can throw a wager or two on. Which ones are the best options out there for you to walk away with a big stack of cash? Well, we take a look at which options look like the best options out there. All odds are brought to you by our friends at BetMGM.
15)Rams Passing TD for First Score of the Game (+320): We know that the Rams aren’t going to be overly committed to running the ball. After all, Los Angeles was 25th in the league in the regular season with 99 yards a game on the ground and that number has dropped in the postseason. In three playoff games, the Rams have averaged 94.3 yards per game on the ground and only 2.9 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford is averaging 9.05 yards per pass attempt on the year. If they’re going to move the sticks and put points on the board, it’s coming through the air. Speaking of that, it dovetails nicely into our next prop:
14)Cooper Kupp to Score First TD (+550): Kupp did it all for the Rams in the regular season, leading the league in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving scores (16) on the year. He hasn’t been slowed down much in the postseason either, adding another 25 grabs for 386 yards and four touchdowns in the postseason. With Odell Beckham Jr. improving with each game, it will be that much tougher for the Bengals to try and double-team Kupp. Seeing that Kupp has found the end zone 20 times on the year, he’s going to be Stafford’s top target early in the game and that makes him a prime candidate to find the end zone early.
13)Tyler Boyd Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115): Boyd was a force in the regular season for Cincinnati, reeling in 67 catches for 828 yards and five scores. With that said, he’s seemingly disappeared in the postseason as he has only 10 catches for 62 yards and the touchdown on a play with an inadvertent whistle against Raiders in the wild card round. One has to think that Jalen Ramsey will be shadowing Ja’Marr Chase, which should create more opportunities for Boyd and Tee Higgins in the passing game. Look for Boyd, coming out of the slot, to get more work than we’ve seen him get in the postseason.
12)1st Quarter Total Over 7.5 (-110): We’re not looking at a big number here in the opening quarter and both teams have some good offensive firepower. The Bengals are 14th on the year in first-quarter scoring as they average 4.3 points per game in the opening stanza. That number climbs to 6.3 points per contest in their three playoff games. Meanwhile, the Rams are 16th in first-quarter scoring with four points per game this season. Like the Bengals, they have improved in the postseason, averaging 5.7 points in their playoff games. This one likely is something like 7-3 in the opening quarter of play, pushing things over the total.
11)Evan McPherson Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-115): McPherson has been nothing short of sensational in the kicking game for the Bengals this season. He drilled 46 of 48 extra points and 28 of 33 field-goal attempts with a long of 58 in the regular season and has upped his game in the postseason. McPherson has hit all four extra points and 12 of 12 field-goal tries in the playoffs with a long of 54. He’s hit three kicks from beyond 50 in the postseason and has been the Bengals’ best weapon. It would surprise no one to see him hit two or three field goals along with an extra point or two to push over this number.
10)Tee Higgins Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards (-115): Higgins reeled in 17 pass plays that covered at least 20 yards in the regular season with a long play of 54 yards. In the postseason, he has hauled in two more pass plays of at least 20 yards with a long play of 44 yards so far this season. As we mentioned with Boyd above, a lot of attention will be paid to Chase, who can make life miserable for opposing defenses. That should free up Higgins and Boyd to make some plays. It wouldn’t be out of the realm to see Higgins making a splash play in the contest to go past this mark.
9)Cincinnati Bengals First Drive to End in Field Goal Attempt (+450): Let’s be honest here. Cincinnati hasn’t had a ton of success when it comes to putting the ball in the end zone in the postseason. The Bengals have scored just five touchdowns in three postseason games. They are 20th in the league in red-zone TD percentage (55.56%) this season but that number has plummeted to 36.36% in the playoffs (four TD in 11 red zone opportunities. The Rams may give up some yards early as they try to figure out the best way to attack Cincinnati but the drive bogs down, bringing McPherson on to attempt a field goal.
8)Odell Beckham Jr. Anytime TD (+165): Beckham Jr. has come on as the season has worn on after Cleveland let him go midseason. He recorded five touchdowns in eight regular-season games with the Rams. While he’s found the end zone only once in the postseason on his 19 receptions, you know Stafford is going to throw early and often in this contest. The Bengals' secondary doesn’t scare most teams and if the front seven can’t generate heat on Stafford, it will make things that much more difficult. OBJ tends to make big plays in big games and that trend continues here as he finds paydirt at some point in the contest.
7)Matthew Stafford to Throw for More Than 300 Yards (+130): As we’ve said before, the Rams have struggled to move the ball this season on the ground and things have been dismal in the postseason. Cam Akers is averaging 2.8 yards per carry in the playoffs and fumbled twice against Tampa Bay, helping the Buccaneers rally from a 27-3 deficit to tie the game in the final minute of regulation. Michel has mustered only 3.3 yards per carry in the playoffs and Stafford has the only two rushing scores the team has in the playoffs. Los Angeles’ bread and butter is the passing game and the Rams have the weapons to chew up big chunks of yardage at a time. Stafford threw for 366 yards in the win over Tampa Bay and 337 against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. He’s primed for another big showing here.
6)Cam Akers Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115): We’ve touted how prolific the passing attack of the Rams has been in the playoffs. By the same token, we’ve discussed the issues that the Rams have had running the ball all season long, something that has been exacerbated in the postseason. Akers is averaging 2.8 yards per carry in the postseason and his numbers are less than eye-popping. In his three playoff games, Akers has run for 55, 48 and 48 yards with no runs longer than 15 yards. He’s ceded some time to Sony Michel in the last couple of games as well and while Michel isn’t setting the world on fire, cutting down the number of opportunities for Akers to touch the ball limits his productivity. There’s also the potential that Darrell Henderson Jr. could be activated from injured reserve, which would make for a crowded backfield.
5)Joe Mixon Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Much like Akers, Mixon has seen his numbers trend down as the season has worn on for the Bengals. He was third in the league in the regular season with 1,205 rushing yards and finished fourth with 13 scores on the ground. However, in the playoffs, he’s been kept in check: his 21 carry, 88-yard performance against the Chiefs was his best game of the postseason. Prior to that, he ran 17 times for 48 yards against the Raiders in the wild card round and 14 carries for 54 yards plus a score against Tennessee in the Divisional Playoff. Facing a Rams team that just stifled the 49ers’ power run game to 20 carries for 50 yards in the NFC Championship Game and who has allowed an average of 54 yards per game on the ground in the postseason makes life tough for Mixon. That front seven of the Rams will test the Bengals’ offensive line and make holes hard to come by for Mixon.
4)1st Half Total Over 23.5 (-115): Both teams have the ability to put points on the board when given an opportunity. The Bengals have averaged 13 points per game in the first half in the postseason, which is slightly higher than their full-season mark of 12.6 ppg in the opening 30 minutes of play. By that same token, the Rams have averaged 16 first-half points in the playoffs compared to their 13.3 ppg mark overall this season. This could be a 14-10 or 17-10 type of game at the half as both teams find their footing to put points on the board, slipping this one over the number.
3_Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards (-125): While the potential for big splashy plays runs rampant on both sides with guys like Kupp, Beckham Jr., Chase, Higgins and Boyd, the fact remains that we’re bound to get some dirty work done in this one. As we mentioned before, Stafford has a pair of one-yard touchdown runs in the postseason, which accounts for both of the Rams’ rushing scores in the playoffs. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see something like that pop up, or a play-action fake to a tackle eligible or a tight end from the one-yard line to sneak in under this mark.
2)Winning Margin – Los Angeles Rams 1-6 (+300): Looking at what we’ve seen in the postseason, one has to think that this is going to be a tight game throughout. These teams have played six combined games in the postseason and five of those contests were decided by seven points or less. Only the Rams’ 34-11 wipeout of Arizona in the NFC Wild Card round was a blowout. By comparison, four of the six games involving the teams in the playoffs have been decided by a field goal with each of the Bengals’ last two decided on the final play of the contest. This is going to be a game that hangs in the balance until the end.
1)Matthew Stafford as Super Bowl MVP (+115): It would only be fitting for Stafford to cap off his postseason run by being named MVP and telling the world that he’s headed to Disney World. Remember, this is a guy that came into the season with as many playoff wins as a starting quarterback in the NFL as you. Unless you’re a former NFL quarterback reading this, that would be zero (playing Madden doesn’t count.) He was brought in because the Rams decided that they needed an experienced gunslinger that can make plays when the game hangs in the balance and that Jared Goff wasn’t the answer. Stafford exceeded expectations, throwing 41 passing touchdowns in the regular season and adding six more in the playoffs while throwing only one interception in his 100 postseason pass attempts. He puts together another solid showing and gets rewarded for his efforts.
Here's hoping that we get another entertaining Super Bowl and that things break your way at the window. Enjoy the game on February 13 and may the odds be in your favor.
From Mark Ruelle
It is that time of year again. Time for overpriced, overrated commercials that never live up to the hype. Time for stories about boyhood dreams coming true. Time for way too many stories about redemption for a 3rd string offensive lineman who once played for the opposing teams. Time to load up on antacids for those post-game ailments and, oh yes, time for Super Bowl 56. This year featuring the Los Angeles Rams, the best team money and draft picks could buy, and the Cincinnati Bengals, looking for a first-ever SB title with a quarterback that is quickly becoming America’s darling.
Where there are Super Bowls, there are props galore. I will not waste your time with my opinion on the coin flip…go with heads…always heads, or with the o/u length of the national anthem…over if its a female singer..under if its a male, but rather, I will do a deep dive into a combination of 15 game and player props that I find interesting. Here are my top 15 game/player props for Super Bowl LVI:
#15. Which team will score the first touchdown: Rams -150 Bengals +110
The Rams have shown a proclivity for driving down the field and stalling in their first series, having done so in consecutive games against the Bucs and then 49ers. Even if they get the ball first, I would expect a field goal rather than a touchdown. The Bengals, on the other hand, will score a touchdown first in this one. They have the weapons to stay away from Jalen Ramsey’s side of the field and take advantage of that matchup.
Take the Bengals; +110 ML
#14. Both teams to score 30 or more; +525 ML
This is a healthy money line to take a shot with. At the rate these playoffs have gone, it is certainly not inconceivable that this game goes to overtime. These last two weeks have provided more thrilling finishes than any playoffs in recent memory. Looking at all the ML’s for the point totals, this one is too good to pass up. Both teams are fully capable of putting up large numbers and this would be a great payoff for a marginal wager.
#13. Most Receiving Yards Head-to-Head: C.Kupp vs. J.Chase
The better money play here is on Chase. I fully expect Kupp to get his catches, probably close to 10. Chase has a chance, however, to put up larger numbers in terms of yards. I don’t foresee the Rams singling him with Ramsey all game. Ramsey will take a side and the Bengals will move around Chase to get his opportunities. I like the moneyline odds in this one.
Take Chase; +125 ML
#12. How many field goals will the Rams score in the first half?
I’ve already stated that I am expecting the Rams' first drive to end in a field goal, not a touchdown. There is a nice Moneyline play for the over-in-field goals in the first quarter for the Rams that is worth a play. I think you can take it to the bank that the Rams knock down a field goal in the first quarter.
Take the Over .5 Field Goals in the first quarter; +210 ML
#11. Total Touchdowns Exact: Cincinnati Bengals
I’m leaning towards a high-scoring game with both teams having time over these next two weeks to find weaknesses in each team’s defense. There are too many high-level offensive weapons and perfect playing conditions not to have a high-scoring affair. To me, the unit that suffers the most in the two-week break is the defense. Tough to be able to ratchet up that intensity to hit after time off. I expect a high-scoring game.
Take the Exacta 4 Total Touchdowns Bengals; +650 ML
#10. To score first touchdown for Bengals
Prop bets, go big or go home. With that in mind, the easy play would be Chase and hope that Burrow force-feeds his favorite target or Chase breaks one. I’m leaning towards the ‘other’ 1000 yard receiver on the Bengals that was the difference in Cincinnati’s comeback win over KC: Tee Higgins. Higgins is a matchup nightmare with his ridiculous reach. If the Rams commit Ramsey strictly to Chase, this goes from a great play to an amazing play. Even if he isn’t solely on Chase, however, Ramsey will play a side of the field. Higgins makes his living in between the seams. With the Cincy TE out, I love Higgins to grab the first touchdown in a pass right down the seams, exploiting the shaky safeties of LA.
Take Tee Higgins, first Bengals Touchdown; +1200 ML
#9. To score first touchdown for Rams
Again, let’s get outside that box. Easy play is to go with Cooper Kupp and wait for him to catch and run his way into the end zone. It’s not a bad play at +550 but it is the Super Bowl for gosh sakes...win big or go home. I’m going to take a flier on Van Jefferson. He should be fully healthy in two weeks after playing hurt late in the playoffs that surely impacted his production. With the Bengals undoubtedly swinging their attention to Kupp primarily and Odell Beckham Jr. as well, I can certainly see Jefferson getting past the secondary and securing the team’s first touchdown.
Take Van Jefferson, first Rams touchdown; +1600 ML
#8. Player to Record 2+ Interceptions
Burrow has thrown more interceptions in these playoffs but, overall, has taken better care of the ball this season. Stafford is much more apt to take risks and should have had at least one, and probably two interceptions in the NFC title game that were dropped. I feel good about taking a chance with this prop.
Take Matthew Stafford 2+ interceptions; +275 ML
#7. Receptions Made
This game features two teams that like to put the ball up and a bevy of good to great receivers. The two most obvious plays would be Kupp and Chase but both need 10+ catches to make it worth your money to make a play. I’m going to stick to my sleeper SB star, Tee Higgins. Higgins is going to be Burrow’s safety blanket in this game and they are going to carry over the rhythm they developed in the second half of the AFC title game.
Take Tee Higgins +7 catches; +165 ML
#6. Joe Mixon Total Rushing Yards O/U 75 yards
Mixon is averaging 63 yards rushing in the playoffs. For an additional 12 yards, you are getting fantastic odds. I am leaning Bengals in this game and I think the Bengals will, like they did against KC, not be afraid to run the ball on numerous first downs. It will do a couple of things, keep Donal and company from pinning their ears back and will wear them down via the constant pounding.
Take the Over 75 yards; +135
#5. Longest Reception Prop
I GUARANTEE the Rams take at least two or more shots with Beckham Jr. down the field. I also feel confident he can and will turn at least one shot into a 30+ yard pass play. I like the odds I’m getting with this prop.
Take Odell Beckham Jr. 30+ yard reception; +160 ML
#4. Kicking Points Over 7.5 pts
You can’t have 15 possible prop plays and not include at least one that includes Evan ‘Money Mac’ McPherson! When a guy files to trademark that nickname, I’m all in. His storybook playoff will continue with two field goals and four extra points to easily surpass this number.
Take McPherson over 7.5 points; -115
#3. Most Passing Touchdowns/Head to Head Stafford vs. Burrow
I just think this might very well be Joe Burrow’s year. He has played at an almost alarmingly cool level during these playoffs, including escaping some sure sacks in the KC win. He looks like there isn’t a moment too big for him. I think Joe Cool is good for 4 touchdowns in the SB and he will beat out Stafford, who might get 3 himself.
Take Burrow Most Passing Touchdowns Head to Head; +105 ML
#2. What will the first scoring play be?
Touchdown -200 Field Goal +165 Safety +4000
No, sorry, I’m not going with a first-score safety. I am, however, going with a decent moneyline play in a field goal. As I’ve already stated, the Rams have been prone in these playoffs to settle for early field goals. I like my odds at +165 to get a first score field goal in this game.
Take the field goal; +165 ML
And the #1 Prop Play, we have to focus on the game’s MVP. Here are my Top 5 candidates and then I’ll give you the pick: Joe Burrow +210, Matthew Stafford +115, Aaron Donald +1600, Cooper Kupp +600, and Ja’Marr Chase +1600
For me, the only two Bengals that have a real shot at this are Burrow and Chase. For the Rams, Stafford and Kupp are obvious but, if the Rams defense is able to step up and slow down the Bengals, Donald will be the difference. If you like the Rams to win, he’s a sneaky good pick at an excellent value. I, however, am sticking with the man, the myth, and the burgeoning legend: Joe Burrow. Burrow has been THE story of the Bengals season and I don’t see it ending here. I can see a four-touchdown performance that cements his place in NFL history.
Take Joe Burrow +210
There you have it, my prop favorites for Super Bowl LXVI. I took very few shots at props that didn’t feature a quality reward. There is more time for deeper analytics on the game itself but these are props. You should take some chances at some big rewards. Enjoy the game.
From Loud Desmond
The single most bet on sporting event in the United States every year is the Super Bowl, with some six to eight billion wagered during the game in the last several years. However, that number is likely to rise as more states legalize sports gambling and the bettors come out of the shadows or back from offshore if you prefer. The Los Angeles Rams will play host, literally, as this is the first time a team will compete to win a Super Bowl in their own stadium when the upstart Cincinnati Bengals come calling in SB 56.
The opening line on the game was a modest -4 on the home team, but that is by far not the only bet or most popular bet in the big game of the year. There are hundreds of prop bets that will be offered at gambling institutions all over the country and the world from which bettors can choose.
These prop bets keep the game interesting for many casual fans and are popular with many gambling aficionados as well who think they can beat the books on some of these wagers. I have broken down fifteen common prop bets in this column and made recommendations.
15)Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Four players offer some value – that is, they are not negative money that have scored significant numbers of touchdowns for the Bengals and Rams.
Tee Higgins (+155)
Tyler Boyd (+190)
Sony Michel (+200)
Tyler Higbee (+230)
Tight-Ends are great weapons near the goal line, so Higbee is a good bet here. The same goes with Sony Michel as a running back in the red zone who gets goal-line carries. If the Rams do what is expected and concentrate on covering Ja'Marr Chase, then that leaves the door wide open for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to be on the receiving end of long or short touchdown passes.
14)Matt Stafford Interceptions Over .5 (-145)
Stafford leads the NFL in interceptions with 18. The Bengals have a linebacker with five interceptions in Logan Wilson and have thirteen total on the season. Stafford is good for at least one INT in this game and maybe more.
13)Odell Beckham Jr. Total Receiving Yards
Although OBJ started slowly with the Rams, he has found his place in the offense in the playoffs. Teams are rolling coverage whenever they can to wherever Cooper Kupp is (whether it works or not), and Odell is finding space to make catches. He has averaged 78.6 yards per game in the playoffs and missed going over 60 only once.
Take OBJ to go over 64.5 yards receiving. (-115)
12)Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Joe Mixon is a great running back, and a real spark for the Bengals offense, but the Rams have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. Mixon has gained 88, 54, and 48 yards on the ground in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Rams just held the 49ers to 50 yards for the game, and they have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The fact that Perine and Chase can also steal touches in the running game works against him here.
Under 64.5 yards for the game with Mixon is the way to go here. (-115)
11)Stafford Passing touchdowns
Rams QB Matt Stafford threw three or more touchdowns in nine games in the regular season, multiple scores in nine of his past ten games (including playoffs), and has four multi-TD games in the playoffs. The Bengals allow an average of 20 points a game in the playoffs and have been great in the red zone. But those games were against the Raiders, one of the worst red-zone scoring teams in the NFL, the Titans, who just played anemic on offense and are one of the lowest-scoring teams that made the playoffs, and the Chiefs, who despite the impressive scoring totals are outside the top 10 in scoring offense in the red zone (touchdowns). The Rams will have plenty of opportunities to score in this game because their defense will constantly be sacking Joe Burrow and giving the ball back to the Rams offense.
Stafford touchdowns over 1.5 is the play.
10)Matt Stafford Rushing yards
Matt Stafford runs the ball less than just about any quarterback this side of Tom Brady (he had 43 rushing yards in the regular season) but has scrambled for 36 yards in the past three games for an average that would quickly clear this total. The Danger here is that he takes a late sack, loses yardage, and goes back below the total (yards lost get subtracted from yards gained. That scenario is unlikely. Stafford will throw the lousy interception instead of taking the sack.
Stafford will just get over this rushing total of 5.5 yards for the game.
9)Super Bowl MVP
The Super Bowl MVP overwhelmingly goes to a quarterback of the winning team. Hell, it is so lopsided that in the last twenty years, Joe Flacco and Nick Foles got MVP awards. The next most awarded player by position in the previous 20 years of the modern era of the NFL is at wide receiver. Cooper Kupp is quite possibly the most valuable player in the NFL this season and will likely play a massive role in the Super Bowl win for the Rams.
Nobody seems to be able to cover him, so there is excellent value in Kupp for MVP at (+600).
8)First Scoring Play of the Game
The Rams and the Bengals both have excellent kickers. The Bengals have kicked a field goal as the first score in every single post-season game except the first against the Raiders. Matt Gay has attempted nine field goals in the playoffs, which is three per game. At plus 400 for the Rams to kick a field goal for the first score and plus 450 for the Bengals to score first with a kick, you can bet both and win nicely whichever team scores.
Go with the first score of the game, either team field goal.
7)First Quarter Leader
The Rams are a fast-starting offense. They have scored a touchdown in the first quarter in 2 out of three playoff games. In two out of three playoff games, the Bengals have failed to score a touchdown in the first quarter. The Rams have a ferocious pass rush, making it hard to convert 3rd downs and have long extended drives. The Rams will lead by one to six points at the end of the first quarter.
This prop bet of Rams plus one to six at the end of the first quarter pays +400.
6)Final Score Differential
Neither one of these teams is blowing their opponents away, and the margin in the playoffs for both has been chiefly a field goal. That said, the Bengals Achilles Heel is the offensive line, and they will likely really struggle to keep Joe Burrow upright. The Bengals will score somewhere around what they did against the Titans (19), and the Rams will probably score at least 28-30 points.
The Rams will prevail by 7 to 12 points and pay +360 on that score.
5)Full Game Score
The Rams have scored more than 30 in two of three playoff games and the Bengals have crossed the threshold of 20 three times so the idea that they will combine for more than 49.5 is an easy conclusion.
Take the full game score for over 49.5 to pay plus 105.
4)Halftime Lead Final Lead
The Rams are going to win the game. They have the better defense and the offense is rolling. Did we mention they have Cooper Kupp who has been the best receiver in the NFL this year?
The Rams will lead at the half and win the game so bet them that way.
3)Rams -3.5 and total under 50.5
The Rams will cover that 3.5 and you are getting a point less than the current line. The under 50.5 doesn’t thrill me but I don’t believe the Bengals are going to score much on the Rams defense because Burrow will be under constant pressure.
Rams 30 and Bengals 20 is the kind of final that is likely.
2)Tyler Higbee to Score Rams Win
So the Rams are going to win and tight-ends are a threat to score in the red zone. Asking for a touchdown in the Super Bowl from Higbee is all that is really at risk here so take the
Rams to win and Higbee to Score at plus 260.
1)Bengals in Overtime to Win
The only way the Bengals win is if something crazy happens. There already have been multiple overtime playoff games so why not the Super Bowl. So if that happens the payoff is a sweet plus 2,000 …what the hell.
From Ben Hayes
15)Method of victory: Bengals in Regulation Time +185
Cincinnati is the play here. They are playing with tremendous confidence. They can run the ball so they don’t just rely on a second-year quarterback to win. Joe Burrow is already a better quarterback than Matthew Stafford, who is turnover-prone. Take the Bengals here with the good odds.
14)Spread Bengals Full Game +1.5 (+145)
I like the Bengals to win outright so if you can get them at +1.5 in a special prop by getting +145, I so am taking that prop and making a bit extra.
13)Spread Bengals First half -0.5 +155
I don’t the crowd will matter as there will be a ton of Cincinnati fans there so they won’t be that nervous in the first half. Take the Bengals to jump out to a strong start and take the lead at the half.
12)Winning Margin (including O/T) Cincinnati 1-6 +375
Once again, since I’m picking Cincy outright, I’m taking them to win by at least a point. This is a team that beat Kansas City on the road. They are not a fluke. If you bet $100, you make $375 on this prop, so this is a good bet.
11)How many points will Cincinnati record? Over 24.5 +145
I’m not naïve to think that the Rams do not have a good defense. However, with Stafford’s proclivity to throw interceptions, the Bengals will have a short field to score points several times. I don’t expect them to score 30+, because I don’t see this as a shootout and I think they use Joe Mixon early and often.
10)Touchdown scorers: Joe Mixon +750 First; 9)Multiple Touchdowns 2 or more: +250
I’m all over Mixon to score the first TD and at least two TDs. I’m making a ton when he scores the first touchdown, a lot more when he scores the second and I’m also betting he scores at least once after that. He had 13 TDs in the regular season and three receiving TDs with one in the postseason. As good as the Rams are defensively, they allowed 85 yards from Elijah Mitchell and 45 and a TD from Deebo Samuel in the regular-season game that went overtime. They loaded the box the second time and slowed them down, but they can do that against Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.
8)Touchdown scorers: Odell Beckham Jr. +140
OBJ is having a terrific second half of the season for the Rams. The Bengals will (finally) double Cooper Kupp and Beckham Jr. see some single coverage.
7)Touchdown scorers: Tee Higgins +155
Higgins is 6-4 and rangy. He does not have a TD in the postseason but had six in the regular season. He also had 74 catches for 1,091 yards and has the speed to break one of those slants over the middle.
6)Super Bowl MVP: Joe Mixon +2500
I know Burrow is the obvious one, because the quarterback usually gets the pick. But he’s just +250 and if I can get +2500 on the best running back in this game by far, I’m taking Mixon.
5)How many points will the Rams record? Under 23.5 +145
I’m taking the Bengals to win so I believe their defense is good enough to hold them to under 24 points. The Rams put up just 20 points at home against San Francisco in the championship game.
4)What will be the first scoring playing be (incl. OT)?
Cincinnati touchdown +240
Since I have Mixon scoring the first touchdown, even though I love their kicking game, I’m taking that prop. Though betting +375 on a Bengals field goal would easily be my second option.
3)What will be the first scoring play be (incl. OT)?
Cincinnati Bengals Rushing Touchdown +900
Once again, taking Mixon to score a rushing touchdown early, I’m taking Cincy to score a rushing TD and making a ton with that prop.
2)Halftime/Final (excl. OT) Bengals/Bengals +275
Kind of self-explanatory, but I really believe in the Bengals in this game to be winning at the half and at the end of the game. Getting +275 makes it a lot sweeter.
1)Touchdown Scorers Joe Burrow +550
Joe Burrow is not a runner and is coming off an ACL tear, but he will do what it takes to win this game. That includes a rushing TD. He has two this season and does have 29 rushing yards on 9 attempts in the postseason.