Top 10 Super Bowl LV Props
It took us a while, but here we are at Super Bowl 55. I didn’t think we would get here earlier in the year, but I’m glad I was wrong. It has been an interesting season, to say the least. Kansas City will battle Tampa Bay with the Buccaneers getting to play this game in their home stadium, which has never happened before in the NFL. Luckily for the Chiefs, it won’t be a packed house as just 25,000 fans will be allowed to attend.
The Super Bowl is the most widely bet sport of the year and part of that is due to the number of prop bets that are offered for the game. Luckily for you, I have poured through the many props that have been offered for this game and have come up with my five best game props and my five best player props. You can thank me later.
Let’s start with game/team props. I will count them down from 5th best to 1st. Odds are Courtesy Of Sportsbook.ag
5th) Will There Be A 2-point Conversion Attempt - Yes (Even)
Neither team went for two all that much during the season as both teams tried just twice, but I see at least one attempt in this game. There has been an attempted two-point conversion in eight of the last 11 Super Bowls and with the possibility of a team needing a two-point conversion late in the game, it makes this a very viable bet. We do note that Tampa Bay did try one in their playoff game against Washington.
4th) Highest Scoring Quarter in Points by Both Teams - O21 (-115)
This is for any quarter in the game and I can see it occurring in the 2nd quarter. The Chiefs and Buccaneers have both averaged 10.2 ppg in the second quarter this year and it has been the best quarter for both teams. The first quarter will be a feeling-out process but then the teams will wake up in the 2nd quarter. These are two of the best offensive teams in the league and the coaches will make the adjustments. The 2nd quarter is not the winning bet, but that is the quarter that I do see the most points. I am calling for 24 points to be the most points in a quarter in this game.
3rd) Yards Of Longest Accepted Penalty - Over 19.5 (-110)
Both of these teams love to throw the ball down the field, so the odds are good that the longest accepted Penalty in the game will be above 19.5 yards. This will be mainly a passing game, so there will be plenty of chances for this play to cash. We also note that there are excellent receivers on both teams and getting a PI call may be a way to keep a player from getting behind the defense for a long TD.
2nd) Buccaneers Total Rushing Yards - Under 95.5 (-115)
Let’s face it, the Bucs will not win this game by running the ball. They will need to throw it far more and Bruce Arians does like to toss it around the field. KC is 21st in the league against the run but they have allowed just 71.7 ypg on the ground in their last three road games. Tampa Bay is 128th in rushing at 94.9 ypg and they have averaged just 92.0 ypg on the ground in their last three home games. We also note that Tampa has averaged just 85.7 ypg rushing in their last three games overall. I see the Bucs putting up no more than 85 yards on the ground in this one.
1st) Kansas City Chiefs First Half Points - Over 16 (-115)
This one looks really easy. The Chiefs have not been great in the first quarter but they should be good for at least a TD in that first frame. KC has averaged 6.8 ppg in the first quarter on the road for the year. The 2nd quarter has been their best all year as they have averaged 10.2 in that quarter for the year, including 13.7 ppg in their last three. Getting Kansas City to 21 points in the first half of this one seems very easy and even if they score just three in the first quarter, the 2nd quarter will see them put up at least 14.
Now we move on to some payer props for the big game.
5th) Patrick Mahomes’ Longest Completion - Over 41.5 (-130)
The Chiefs are a big-play offense and Mahomes has two ways to cash this play. The first is hitting a big pass play way down the field. He has a big arm and a plethora of big-play receivers. The other way is to connect on a little dump-off play to Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Both players have made some huge plays with these little dump-off passes by Mahomes. I can see at least one of them turning a short pass into at least a 50-yard game and that has me taking the Over in this prop.
4th) Tom Brady Total Touchdown Passes - Over 2.5 (+110)
Tom Brady has 18 touchdown passes in his career in the Super Bowl and that amounts to two a game. I see him getting at least three in this one. He threw 40 TDs during the regular season and has added seven more during the postseason. In the red-zone, he will look to throw the ball to Gronk or Evans, who are hugely important close in. The Chiefs do not have a great pass defense and Brady has thrown 19 TDs at home for the year. Passing TDs will keep them close against the Chiefs and Brady will notch at least three of them.
3rd) Rob Gronkowski Total Receptions - Over 2.5 (-115)
Rob Gronkowski has just two receptions in the playoffs so far but this is the Super Bowl and I will look for Brady to rely on Gronk a bit more. These two have been in the big game many times and the Chiefs could overlook Gronk as he hasn’t been used much in the playoffs this far. He was used a whole lot during the season, averaging just 2.8 catches per game, but he is still a big weapon and you can’t leave any bullets in the chamber for this one. The Bucs will get in the red-zone a few times and you can bet Brady will be looking for Gronk. He will also be looking for him in the rest of the game as well. The Chiefs will not be expecting it.
2nd) Ronald Jones Total Yards Rushing - Under 36.5 (-115)
In the postseason, Ronald Jones has just 78 yards rushing while Leonard Fournette has 211. The Bucs will look to the hot hand in this one to try and get their ground game going. Still, they will be throwing the ball a bit more and that will take rushing attempts away from both players. Jones has averaged a little over 69 ypg on the ground for the year but just 54.3 ypg in his last six and he has a mere 16 yards against the Packers. I do not see him getting nearly 40 yards on the ground in this one.
1st) Tyreek Hil Longest Reception - Over 29.5
Travis Kelce may lead the team in receiving but Tyreek Hill is still their big-play guy. As I stated above, I expect the longest reception by Mahomes to go at least 42 yards and Hill will be a part of that. He has a penchant for turn a short pass into a huge 50+ yard gain as he did against the Bills when he raced for 71 yards on one catch. He had 172 yards receiving in that game on just nine catches. That’s an average of 19.0 ypc. Hill has had a reception of at least 30 yards in five of his last seven games and he had a 44-yard reception against the Niners in last year’s Super Bowl.
There you have it. My Top 10 Props for Super Bowl 55. Enjoy the game everyone.