Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/16/21

Eastern Conference foes will clash on Saturday evening when Atlanta United visits Toronto FC at BMO Field. Atlanta is currently holding on to the eighth and final playoff spot in the East at 10-9-9 after losing its most recent game 2-1 to CF Montreal back on October 2 as a +254 road underdog. Toronto has struggled overall this season in 13th place in the East at 6-7-15, but is coming off a 3-1 home win over the Chicago Fire on October 3 as a -105 favorite.

These teams have met once this season, a 1-0 home win for Atlanta back on August 18. Toronto still leads the all-time series 4-3-2.

Atlanta United returns from break in need of a win

While Atlanta has generally been a good team since Gonzalo Pineda took over seven matches ago, it is coming off a damaging loss against Montreal two weeks ago to drop into eighth in the Eastern Conference standings with six games left to play. After a scoreless first half, Atlanta struck first on substitute Jake Mulraney’s goal just shortly after the break, only to concede two penalties within the next six minutes, both of which were converted by Montreal’s Romell Quioto.

Atlanta held 61% of possession and managed to outshoot Montreal 11-10, although only three of those ended up on target. Luiz Araujo was credited with the assist on Atlanta’s lone goal, while Brad Guzan made five saves but couldn’t stop either of the penalty kicks.

“I feel that in the first half we created more chances than the opponent, but we couldn’t finalize those,” Pineda told Atlanta’s official website. “At times, we aren’t sharp enough in front of goal and missing chances. We need to be clinical. We’re going to learn from mistakes.”

The offense has improved since Pineda took over, bringing its overall numbers to an average of 1.32 goals and 13.14 shots per match. Atlanta’s defense has kept the team in the playoff race, allowing 1.18 goals and 13.15 shots per game while keeping eight clean sheets this season.

Star Josef Martinez is back at full strength after missing nearly the entire 2020 season with a torn ACL, piling up 10 goals to lead the Atlanta offense. Ezequiel Barco is also having a great season with seven goals and a team-high five assists, and Marcelino Moreno has scored seven times while adding four helpers.

Midfielders Amar Sejdic and Franco Ibarra, who have combined for 11 starts this season, are both not expected to play due to undisclosed injuries. Veteran striker Erick Torres missed the last match with an illness and his status is uncertain, while Jurgen Damm is also questionable. Midfielder Emerson Hyndman suffered a knee injury in late May and remains out.

Toronto looks for fourth straight home win

It’s a lost season overall for Toronto, but the team has at least climbed out of the cellar with improved play over the past month including a 3-1 victory over Chicago in its most recent match two weeks ago. The Fire struck first in the 16th minute and had momentum after Toronto missed a penalty shortly after, yet the hosts bounced back with Marco Delgado equalizing just prior to halftime before Omar Gonzalez and Yeferson Soteldo each scored in a dominant second half.

It was all Toronto after the early Chicago surge, as the hosts held 55% possession and managed a 14-11 advantage in total shot attempts. Soteldo, Jacob Shaffelburg and Jonathan Osorio were all credited with assists on the evening, while Alex Bono made four saves after Chicago’s first shot went in.

“We go down a goal again and for the second time in a row the response is really good. We earn a penalty right after, we miss it, but even the response after that was really good. That was important,” Osorio told Toronto’s official website. “And so we find the equalizer before the half. We executed the plan very well. We’re on a roll and we want to keep it going. Guys in the locker room really, really care.”

Despite the overall struggles for the team, Toronto’s offense has maintained passable numbers with 1.21 goals on 9.57 shots per match. The Toronto defense has been a disaster with 1.93 goals and 13.46 shots allowed per match while keeping just two clean sheets all season long.

Osorio is the team’s leading scorer with four goals in only 15 starts, with his first assist of the year coming last game. Soteldo, a mid-season Designated Player signing, has dished out a team-high six assists while scoring three times, while Shaffelburg has three goals and three helpers.

Injuries have been a major part of the struggles for Toronto, as rising star Ayo Akinola suffered a torn ACL back in July while veteran stalwarts like Jozy Altidore (knee) and Eriq Zavaleta (undisclosed) have been out of the lineup for much of the season. Reigning MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo has only played in 13 matches due to lower-body injuries, but was available off the bench last match and should see some action on Saturday. The rest of the lengthy injury report includes Dom Dwyer (lower body), Chris Mavinga (lower body), Tsubasa Endoh (lower body), Jordan Perruzza (back) and Ralph Priso-Mbongue (lower body).

Side prediction: Toronto +125

Total: Over 3 (+110)

A nightmare season for Toronto at least appears to be winding down on a high note as the club is unbeaten in its last five matches, a streak that can continue against an Atlanta team that isn’t good on the road. Toronto is far more talented than its record this season shows and is finally playing its best soccer with some key pieces back in the lineup healthy, making this bet worth a shot at plus odds.

The offense has picked things up in particular, with Toronto piling up a total of eight goals during the current three-game winning streak at BMO Field. Soteldo building more chemistry with his new teammates over the course of the season has been the key as he is an excellent playmaker, while a healthy Osorio has also helped matters with the outstanding Pozuelo also likely to join the lineup this weekend.

Atlanta is just 2-6-6 away from home this season, as the defense doesn’t play nearly as well on the road with 1.74 expected goals allowed per game. Toronto has lost just two of its nine home matches since the mid-season return to BMO Field, and is in good enough form to beat an uninspiring Atlanta team in this one.

Even with the team improving as a whole, this is still a bad Toronto defense that has given up 1.70 expected goals per game to rank fourth-worst in the MLS while recording just two shutouts all season. Atlanta’s offense has underperformed its predictive metrics and is finally starting to pick things up some with 12 goals in the seven matches under Pineda, and the superstar Martinez can certainly cause problems for the aging Toronto backline.

The finishing for Toronto has actually been good this season with the offense being held back by a lack of chances, so the team generating 29 total shots the last two weeks bodes well moving forward. Don’t expect either shaky defense to keep a clean sheet in what could turn into a shootout on Saturday.