Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami FC Prediction, Preview and Odds - 9/14/21
Inter Miami CF will be looking to continue its hot stretch and jump into the Eastern Conference playoff picture when it travels to Toronto FC on Tuesday night. Miami has won four of its last five matches and is now just two points out of a playoff spot. Toronto has been trending in the opposite direction, having lost its last five matches.
Miami coming on down the stretch
Miami has really picked up the pace after a bad opening half of the season. It has gone unbeaten in its last five matches, notching four wins during that stretch. The club has beaten Chicago, Toronto, Cincinnati and Columbus. Their win over Toronto was a 3-1 final on Aug. 21 in Florida. They are coming off a 1-0 win over the visiting Crew on Saturday. Gonzalo Higuain scored 16 minutes into the match and that was enough to pick up the full three points. Miami only had two shots on goal, but its defense held the reigning champions to three shots on goal.
The Eastern Conference playoff race is starting to tighten up as the season winds down. Miami is in ninth place, sitting two spots out of the final playoff spot in the standings. It is only two points back of Montreal for that position, though, so a win on Tuesday would elevate Miami into the playoff picture. Miami is still one of the lowest-scoring teams in the MLS overall. It has netted 23 total goals, putting the club in a tie with Cincinnati for the second-fewest goals of any team. This is an ideal matchup for an offense that has had its struggles, as Toronto has allowed the most goals in the MLS (49).
Toronto continues to struggle
Toronto has been the worst team in the MLS this season. It has lost its last five matches and is winless in its eight times out. The club has not picked up a win since July 24, when it went to Chicago and grabbed a 2-1 win. They were out-classed in their trip to Miami last month, allowing two first-half goals en route to a 3-1 loss. Miami took a 3-0 lead before allowing Toronto to get on the board via an own goal. Toronto played its first match since Aug. 27 on Saturday, dropping a 2-0 final.
Cincinnati scored the first goal of that match 39 minutes in and then added the final score 13 minutes after halftime. Toronto had 49% of possession and was able to get five shots on goal, but Cincinnati scored on half of its shots on goal (4). The Canadian side has tallied just 15 points all season, which puts them in last place in the Eastern Conference table. They finished in second place last year, but they have not been able to match that performance by any stretch. Their offense has scored 26 goals, putting them in the bottom third of the league. They are facing a Miami defense that has been average, allowing 31 goals.
Pick: (Miami +215)
This is another instance of an MLS road underdog with plenty of value. Miami comes into this match with a ton of momentum, having won four of its last five contests. It is facing a Toronto team that is at the bottom of the table and has nothing to play for down the stretch. Miami will have a motivational edge and it has a better roster, which makes this price very appealing. Its one glaring weakness has been scoring, but that has been less of an issue of late. I am even less worried about it in this match, as Toronto has allowed the most goals of any team.
Total (Over 2.5)
Taking an under on a total this low is not an advisable move with how Toronto has played this season. It has gone over this mark in five of its last seven matches. They have allowed the most goals of any team in the MLS and the next team is 10 goals behind them. That stat is not misleading either, as only two teams have scored four-plus goals against them in a match. It has been a slow process of allowing two or three goals nearly every time they step on the pitch. Miami is playing its best soccer of the season and should be able to take advantage of this bad defense.