Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls Predictions, Preview, And Odds - 7/21/21

Eastern Conference foes will square off on Wednesday night when the New York Red Bulls visit Toronto FC at BMO Field. New York currently holds down eighth in the East at 5-2-5 after battling the Philadelphia Union to a 1-1 home drawback on July 8 with the tie hitting at +121 odds. Toronto is also coming off a 1-1 home draw on Saturday against Orlando City at +139 odds, and is now out of last place at 2-3-8.

These teams met at Red Bull Arena back on May 8, with New York winning 2-0 to extend its all-time lead over Toronto FC to 19-8-10.

Red Bulls get back in action with a three-match unbeaten streak

New York got a bit of an extended international break as Saturday’s match against Inter Miami was postponed due to inclement weather, and will now hope to keep rising up the standings as it has a win and two draws while facing a very difficult schedule over its last three games. An even better result was possible in the Red Bulls’ most recent match against Philadelphia as they took the lead in the 60th minute on a Patryk Kimala goal from the penalty spot, but the Union managed to equalize in the 85th despite being down to 10 men for the last half-hour.

The Red Bulls were on the back foot for most of the game, as they had only three shots on target with Philadelphia holding 54% possession. Carlos Coronel made six saves for the Red Bulls as the Union had a number of great chances in the first half, with defender Sean Davis providing a key goal line clearance to deny the opener just before halftime.

New York has roughly league average stats on both sides of the ball, as it is putting up 1.42 goals on 13.41 shots per game. Opponents are averaging 1.25 goals and 10.16 shots per game against the Red Bulls, who have kept four clean sheets this season, one of which was against Toronto.

Youngsters Cristian Casseres Jr. and Caden Clark are tied atop the Red Bulls leaderboard with four goals apiece. Fabio has also enjoyed a productive season with two goals and a team-high five assists while grading out as New York’s best player by advanced metrics.

The Red Bulls are dealing with injuries to a number of starters, as left-back Andrew Gutman (knee), center back Andres Reyes (hamstring), and forward Daniel Royer (thigh) were all listed as out on the injury report over the weekend. Defender Sean Nealis is questionable with a thigh problem as well. That’s all on top of former MLS Defender of the Year Aaron Long missing the rest of the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles in May.

Shorthanded Toronto finally returns home in draw against Orlando City

For the first time in 10 months, Toronto was able to play a match at BMO Field with 7,000 in attendance, and continued to put up impressive results under interim coach Javier Perez with a draw against second place Orlando City. Jozy Altidore, who was away from the team for two months after a falling out with former coach Chris Armas, scored in his return to give Toronto FC the lead in the 72nd minute, although Orlando equalized shortly after on a penalty kick goal by Nani.

The draw was deserved in an even matchup, as Orlando held a narrow 10-9 advantage in shots while Toronto owned 52% of possession. Toronto goaltender Alex Bono made four saves on some dangerous attempts for Orlando, although it was his challenge that resulted in the game-tying penalty.

While not at the same level as previous years, Toronto has put up solid numbers offensively with an average of 1.31 goals and 10 shots per game. The defense has been the main source of Toronto’s problems with opponents racking up an MLS-worst 2.31 goals per game on an average of 12.38 shots.

Ayo Akinola and Jonathan Osorio have found the back of the net three times apiece to lead the club. Veteran Michael Bradley has dished out a team-high three assists while adding one goal, while Altidore has now scored twice in just five appearances this season.

No team has more players on international duty right now, as Toronto is without Akinola, Osorio, Richie Laryea, Kemar Lawrence, and Eriq Zavaleta, who are all in the knockout rounds of the Gold Cup.

Side Prediction: Toronto +125

Total: Over 3 (+110)

While its overall record is poor, Toronto looks like a completely new side in two games under the new coaching staff with a pair of impressive performances against the top two teams in the East. The Red Bulls look destined for a mid-table finish, and a well-coached Toronto team is talented enough to handle them at home for a win at enticing odds.

All the missing players on international duty certainly hurts Toronto, but getting Altidore back helps lessen the impact. Perhaps even more importantly, reigning MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo finally looks like himself at full health, while designated player Yeferson Soteldo has been fantastic the last two games including recording his first MLS goal and assist.

That’s a lot of attacking talent to throw at a New York defense that has been fairly mediocre as is, and now has so many backs out with injury. Add in the emotional boost of finally getting an extended homestand with expanded capacity at BMO Field, and Toronto can stay hot under Perez.

The new coaching staff doesn’t necessarily mean the Toronto defense is suddenly going to become an above-average unit, as New England put two past it in a losing effort while Orlando had plenty of dangerous chances. Casseres Jr and Clark are both difficult covers for any team due to their pace, and New York scored twice in this matchup back in May against Toronto, which had major defensive issues even going back to last season.

New York has been slightly better offensively than defensively, as it has 17.1 expected goals allowed and will be starting a number of backups on Wednesday. A talented Toronto attack should do most of the damage here, but don’t expect either team to keep a clean sheet.