Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC Predictions, Preview, and Odds - 7/17/21

Two teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference table will square off on Saturday night when Orlando City SC takes on Toronto FC at Exploria Stadium. Orlando is currently in second place in the East at 6-3-3 but is coming off a 3-1 road loss on July 7 against the Chicago Fire as a +239 underdog. Toronto finally got back in the win column with a 3-2 road victory over the New England Revolution on July 7 to hit as a massive +525 underdog, yet is still in last place with a record of 2-2-8.

This will count as a road match for Orlando despite taking place in its own stadium, as Toronto is still temporarily housed there, with a return to Canada unlikely until August. The two teams have met twice already this season, with Orlando winning 1-0 on May 22 and 3-2 a month later.

Orlando returns from break looking to end losing streak

For the first time this season, Orlando has lost multiple games in a row after dropping a pair of matches to the New York Red Bulls and Chicago since the start of July. Andres Perea gave Orlando the lead in Chicago last week with a 34th minute goal, but the Fire responded to tie just before the halftime whistle and went up for good in the 72nd minute.

Orlando did carry the run of play with 19 shots, nine of which went on target, and a 54% possession. Chicago only had four shots on target for the match, three of which made it past Orlando goaltender Brandon Austin.

Few teams in MLS are more balanced than Orlando, which is averaging 1.67 goals on12.25 shots per game. Orlando’s defense has also been outstanding, allowing an average of exactly one goal and 12.5 shots per match while keeping five clean sheets.

Nani is headed for his best season since joining MLS with a team-high six goals while adding three assists. Tesho Akindele has chipped in three goals and four assists while grading out as the team’s best player by advanced metrics.

Top goalkeeper Pedro Gallese and key midfielder Sebastian Mendez should be back in the lineup after missing time while playing in the Copa America. Midfielder Daryl Dike will be absent as he is with the USMNT for the Gold Cup. Striker Alexandre Pato recently returned to training after suffering a knee injury early in the season and could play this weekend. Outside backs Ruan (calf) and João Moutinho (hip) have both missed multiple games, and it’s unclear when they will return to the Orlando lineup.

New coaching staff helps Toronto end seven-match winless streak

After Chris Armas’ 15-game stint as head coach of Toronto FC came to an end with a disastrous 7-1 loss to D.C. United to begin July, the Javier Perez era began with a surprise win over first place New England last week. Toronto came out energized with three goals in the first 24 minutes as Yeferson Soteldo, Kemar Lawrence and Tsubassa Endoh all quickly found the back of the net, and it just managed to hang on after the Revolution clawed back two in the second half.

The Revolution had most of the pressure with 61% possession and 21 shots as they had to chase the game, although Toronto held a 7-6 advantage in attempts on target. Soteldo, Alejandro Pozuelo and Auro Jr. all racked up assists, while goaltender Alex Bono made four saves including a key stop in the dying minutes on a breakaway chance for New England.

That was a welcome performance offensively, as Toronto’s normally potent attack is averaging just 1.33 goals and 10.08 shots per contest. Toronto’s defense has been a massive concern all season, as opponents are piling up 2.42 goals and 12.66 shots per game, and its lone clean sheet came back on May 12 against the Columbus Crew.

Ayo Akinola and Jonathan Osorio are tied atop the Toronto team leaderboard with three goals apiece. Veteran Michael Bradley has dished out a team-high three assists while adding one goal, while Soteldo is now on the scoresheet after being signed as a Designated Player six games ago.

Toronto will be shorthanded this weekend as no MLS team had more players called up for international duty. Akinola, Osorio, Lawrence, Richie Laryea and Eriq Zavaleta are all currently playing in the Gold Cup. Striker Jozy Altidore has not played since May 22 as he had a falling out with the old coaching staff but returned to training this week. Injuries have also been a problem for Toronto all season, as goalkeeper Quentin Westberg (hand), defenseman Justin Morrow (back), forward Ifunanyachi Achara (torn ACL), and forward Erickson Gallardo (groin) are all banged up.

Side Prediction: Orlando +155

Total: Over 3 (-110)

While last week’s upset of New England was impressive, this figures to another very tough challenge for Toronto against an Orlando team that looks like a title contender, particularly given who figures to be available for both sides. Toronto will be massively shorthanded with several of its best players on international duty, and Orlando is worth a shot at these odds to win outright as it will be near full strength with many key members rested.

Few teams in MLS are more balanced than Orlando, as its +8 goal differential is the best mark in the Eastern Conference while being backed by strong advanced metrics. While Orlando has lost two straight matches, those came without Gallese and Mendez, who were both outstanding in the Copa America, while Nani and Mauricio Pereyra only played 15 minutes apiece last week in Chicago.

Toronto is just missing too many members that are crucial to its attack including its two leading scorers, and the defense is nowhere near good enough to make up for it as it has allowed a whopping seven more goals than any other team in the league. We’ve seen teams throughout sports get a new coach bounce before falling off again, and Toronto won’t be able to pull off another upset over an excellent Orlando team here.

Defense has been a huge problem for Toronto even dating back to last season when it made the playoffs, and it still looked shaky in the win last week while raising its expected goals allowed total for the year to 21.2. Even this version of Toronto is still too talented to put up so few goals under the new coaches moving forward, as Pozuelo is starting to look much healthier and more like himself after winning MLS MVP last season while Soteldo is starting to adjust to the league with a nice performance last week.

A much-improved offense has been the key to Orlando’s run so far, as the team has racked up 18.6 expected goals and has not been shut out since the first match of the season. Orlando has put three goals by Toronto in a match already this season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if that happened again here.