Toronto FC vs. Toronto FC Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 9/29/21

Toronto vs. Cincinnati – 9-28

FC Cincinnati recently fired their manager after only one win in their last 16 matches and they head north of the border to face Toronto FC, who are the only team below them in the Eastern Conference.

Jaap Stam is out as the manager of Cincinnati and the club’s under-19 and under-23 coach Tyrone Marshall will take over the team on an interim basis. They only have four wins in 25 matches and their lone win in their last 16 matches was facing Toronto at home on Sept 12th. They have lost three in a row and one bright spot is that their last two wins have come against Toronto winning each by a score of 2-0.

Toronto is in the basement of the Eastern Conference but they have their best streak of the season, as they are coming off a scoreless draw and won their previous match. While they have given up the most goals in MLS, their defense has been pretty good as of late.

Catching Up

Cincinnati has given up the second-most goals in MLS and they may surpass them soon, as they gave conceded 10 goals in their last three matches. In their last one, they were on the road and lost to DC United 4-2 where they were down 4-0 before getting two late goals from Brandon Vazquez and Luciano Acosta. The time of possession was pretty even but they gave up more shots (19-15) and more shots on goal (8-6). Cincy is 0-6-2 in their last eight road matches but they did beat Toronto on the road in late June.

Cincy is tied with Chicago for scoring the second-fewest goals in the East, but they have scored three goals in their last two matches. Brenner leads the club with seven goals and he has two in his last four matches. Luciano Acosta ranks second with five goals and also leads them with six assists. FC Cincinnati is relatively healthy for this match and FW Joseph-Claude Gyau is listed as questionable with an Achilles injury.

Turning It Around

The defense has been the main issue for Toronto all season but they have only conceded two goals in their last three matches. They were on the road in their last match playing to a scoreless draw against the Colorado Rapids, who have a pretty solid attack. Toronto held them scoreless holding them to only one shot on target despite being beaten in the time of possession battle 62% to 38%. The match was played primarily in the midfield and both teams had few scoring chances. While a draw Toronto has to be happy, as they were on the road and facing a Colorado team that came into the contest on a 10-match unbeaten streak.

Not only has Toronto given up the most goals in MLS but has scored the third-fewest in the East. Jonathan Osorio leads the club with four goals, Ayo Akinola has three, and no other player has more than two. Yeferson Soteldo and Alejandro Pozuelo each have four assists apiece. Toronto has several injured players and the FW duo of Tsubasa Endoh and Jayden Nelson were also recently added to the injury list.

Pick: Draw +275

While Cincy has beaten Toronto in both meetings this season, Toronto is in better form with a win and a draw in their last two matches. Their defense has been pretty bad all season but they have only conceded two goals in their last three matches and are coming off a scoreless draw in their last one. On the other side of the coin Cincinnati has three straight losses where they conceded 10 goals. One thing Cincy does have going for them is that they will be facing a banged-up Toronto club. I see this match playing out much like Toronto’s last one, as scoring chances will be few and far between. I do not look for either club to press the issue on the attack, which is why this match will end in a low-scoring draw.

Total: Under 2.5 goals

I have to lean towards the Under in this match and that was the winning pick in both of the meetings between these teams this season. This is the case even though Toronto has conceded the most goals in MLS and Cincy has conceded the second most and has given up 10 goals in their last three matches. Cincy held a clean sheet in both meetings with Toronto this season and they may do it again. However, Toronto will also play solid defense, which they have done as of late. I would not be surprised at all is this one ends in a scoreless draw and with few fireworks on the attack for both teams the Under is the pick.