UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane - Undercard Predictions Pt. 2 - 01/22/22
Bantamweight - Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
It’s nice to see Henry getting a shot in the UFC as he’s been pretty successful in the smaller shows for the past 10 years. He’s pretty solid everywhere and has never been finished over 26 fights. His reward from the UFC for this success is throwing him to the wolves. This pack of wolves comes in the form of Raoni Barcelos who is just a couple levels higher in every possible metric. Barcelos is incredibly measured and excels at exploiting small mistakes from his opponent. I’d say Henry will offer up a fair share of those as he's eager to put on a show, which will allow Barcelos to get the win. I'd note that this fight is quite a bit closer than the odds suggest and if Barcelos waits too around too much, we could conceivably get to split decision territory.
Prediction: Raoni Barcelos
Welterweight - Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez
Since losing his first two fights, Jack Della Maddalena rattled off 10 straight wins. The last of which was a Contender Series bout where he put a wide range of skills on display against a hulking, athletic opponent. He scrambles incredibly well, has great head movement, and pretty crisp boxing.
It’s hard to know how good Rodriguez is since he’s been beating up on pretty low competition. But nevertheless, he did do to them what someone should do to lowly competition - finish them quickly. Vegas isn’t swayed by the undefeated record however as he comes into this one as a pretty big dog. I'd say Maddalena is going to be his first true test and I doubt Rodriguez will pass it.
Maddalena seems tough enough to withstand a decent shot (as he did eat a few clean ones from Ange Loosa) and most likely get things back to the feet if Rodriguez does secure a takedown. There’s a strong chance that neither of those things happen however and he just picks Rodriguez apart for 15.
Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena
Bantamweight - Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira
Gravely looked great in his last fight, getting the better of the striking exchanges with Manness, and if the bell didn’t save his opponent, he would have scored the finish. His striking was looking clean and he was mixing his wrestling in nicely (although he failed to maintain any real top control). Those shots looked good but he quickly found out wrestling someone 5” taller with decent defense is no easy task. I like that he brings his hands back quickly when unloading a combination as well. It didn’t save him though as Manness put him to sleep in round 2 in an incredible comeback victory.
His opponent for this one has a reach advantage but is actually 1” shorter.
Oliveira is making his UFC debut after a split decision win on the contender series. He threw a large amount of spinning $%#& that I don’t see working well here. He will hold a sizable edge in durability as he’s never been finished but he hasn’t exactly fought top competition. That’s what makes this one tough to call is the fact Gravely has been subbed/finished about half a dozen times and if he ends up on the wrong side of the wrestling exchanges, he probably won’t survive. Despite Oliveira landing 3 takedowns in that contender series fight, he shot in from halfway across the cage. The fact he secured them is indicative of a huge athletic edge he enjoyed (which he won’t have here).
Gravely’s wrestling offense is pretty impressive, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Whoever presses the action on this one is likely to come out ahead. One other item to consider is Oliveira has scored 5 finishes by guillotine so Gravely may not be safe if he does rack up control time (and he himself has tapped to guillotine in the past). I’m leaning towards Gravely to get the decision win but it seems like an Oliveira sub is very plausible. I’ll bank on Gravely’s past flashes of brilliance, huge edge in offensive wrestling, and stiffer competition being enough to secure the win.