UFC 271: Kyler Phillips vs Marcelo Rojo - Prediction - 02/12/22
Kyler Phillips vs Marcelo Rojo
This should be a great action fight on the main card to start getting the fans fired up. Both guys are incredibly exciting, high-output fighters. Marcelo Rojo’s (16-7) has an affinity for either finishing his opponent or getting finished. He came from the Combate Global fight organization where he scored 6 victories inside the distance. In that run though he was also submitted twice. Nevertheless, he got the call up to the big show and made his debut against Charles Jourdain last March. It started out well as Rojo was ahead on the scorecards for the first two rounds (second round was close), but he let it slip away as the Canadian would pour it on in the 3rd and ultimately finish “Pitbull” (yes, yet another Pitbull nickname) with only 30 seconds left in the fight. He looks to get back on track against Kyler Phillips this Saturday.
Kyler Phillips (9-2) made the most of his Contender Series fight back in 2017, where he only needed 46 seconds to pound out James Gray. Despite the impressive performance, he didn’t quite get a UFC contract just yet. Instead, he would go on The Ultimate Fighter where he lost a close majority decision to eventual show winner, Brad Katona. He split a couple fights on the regional scene before finally making his official UFC debut. He won that fight (Gabriel Silva) as well as his next 2 (Cameron Else and Song Yadong) before losing his most recent fight, another close one against Raulian Paiva. That one also ended up as a majority decision loss.
Both bantamweights stand at 5’8” and reach is nearly identical (1” in favor of Phillips).
How They Match Up
Kyler Phillips’ last fight didn’t do anything to diminish his stock and quite frankly the result should have been a draw as that first round was 10-8 in my eyes. It seemed like he had an adrenaline dump after trying to finish the fight at the end of the 1st round (and Paiva was put out for a second but an additional shot woke him up). He then showed tremendous heart in engaging in an absolute grueling scramble-heavy fight for the next 10 minutes. All in all, he’s incredibly well rounded with power in his hands and a solid grappling game. He did concede several takedowns and advantageous positions in that fight however but “The Matrix” was noticeably fatigued.
Rojo is an incredibly slick boxer with solid knees in the clinch. He showed in his last fight that if he’s allowed to lead the dance, he has the skills to outstrike you. He’s not quite as effective on the back foot but fatigue may have played a factor in that fight as well.
I think the style match might be a little tough for Rojo here. He’s most likely not going to grapple at all and Phillips always mixes in some grappling. Combine this with the fact Phillips likes to push forward early and Rojo is not really going to have much time to get set. However, with Phillips’ pressure, comes ample openings that Rojo could exploit. Paiva cracked Phillips a number of times and had him pretty hurt during those exchanges. However, I think fatigue played the main factor there so I like Phillips chances here. Rojo’s last pile of losses before the Jourdain fight all came from submission so some solid ground and pound from Phillips could easily give way to a back take and rear naked choke. Just too many ways Phillips can finish the fight provided he doesn’t get overly reckless.