UFC on ABC: Holland vs Vettori - Betting Guide - 4/10/21
Last Card Recap
Well, we went 10-0 so all bets came in (including our big underdog play on Mallarkey) and it was a hugely profitable night. Let’s try and keep that momentum going.
Marvin Vettori (-338) vs. Kevin Holland (+261)
Sodiq Yusuff (-144) vs. Arnold Allen (+118)
Kyle Daukaus vs. Aliaskhab Khizriev
Sam Alvey (+159) vs. Julian Marquez (-193)
Nina Ansaroff (-141) vs. Mackenzie Dern (+116)
Mike Perry (+135) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (-163)
It sort of sucks when you have to pass on the main event but to get any value out of this one I’d have to bet on Holland and I just can’t. Those odds are in fact way too wide given Holland's reach and speed advantage but still, Vettori has overcome that in the past.
Lots of other +ev slots on this card though, Kyle Daukaus, MacKenzie Dern, and Sam Alvey all have value. Alvey is the biggest stretch between those three. He’s only been subbed one time in his career so there’s a low likelihood that Marquez’s sneaky chokes will come into play. We’ve also seen Marquez rocked and gassed in his last couple of fights where Alvey seems to be incredibly dangerous in the third round. I wouldn’t go crazy on Alvey though, he hasn’t won in 5 fights for a reason but his back’s against the wall, and has shown flashes of promise in his last 2 fights.
Dern has a tough style matchup ahead of her in Ansaroff but the latter is coming off of a 2-year layoff. Her last bout saw her lose to Tatiana Suarez so Dern has all the momentum and is undefeated in the UFC.
Edit: We have since lost Daukaus and Khizriev due to covid protocol
Jim Miller (+196) vs. Joe Solecki (-245)
Scott Holtzman (+195) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-244)
Erin Blanchfield (+203) vs. Norma Dumont Viana (-254)
John Makdessi (+159) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-194)
Yorgan De Castro (-317) vs. Jarjis Danho (+246)
Hunter Azure (+140) vs. Jack Shore (-168)
Luis Saldana (-139) vs. Jordan Griffin (+113)
Da Un Jung (-142) vs. William Knight (+116)
Impa Kasanganay (-300) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+235)
Odds are a bit wide on that Kasanganay/Palatnikov fight since we really don’t know how Kasanganay will A) rebound from a brutal highlight reel KO loss and B) is dropping down to welterweight. Palatnikov scored a huge upset win in his last fight and showed he can overcome adversity. This might be one to watch the weigh-ins for and see how things shake out. For now, it’s a pass.
I feel pretty strongly that De Castro, Gamrot, Solecki, and Bahamondes are going to get it done. You can check my prelim breakdowns (click here and here) for as to why. In terms of value, I’d say Bahamondes should be an even heavier favorite so I’m taking him big. Griffin is my underdog of choice on this undercard since I know exactly what I’m going to get out of him. Blitz forward and grind for 15 minutes. If Saldana shows some incredible takedown defense and keeps Griffin at range then I’ll eat that one but Griffin’s durability and experience is worth a play.
Jung’s strong 1-2’s and step-in elbows down the middle should be enough to give Knight trouble as well.
Griffin (Moneyline or Decision)
Jung (Moneyline or KO)
Alvey (Moneyline, KO, or KO in Round 3)