UFC on ESPN 16: Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana, Prediction and Preview
With her best Octagon days already lived at 38, this weekend Holly Holm (-110) seeks another quality win while facing Irene Aldana (-110) during theirmain event at UFC On ESPN 16.
Holm famously exposed Ronda Rousey in 2015 to briefly capture fame and bantamweight gold. However, just 3-5 since, ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ has proven little beyond one hit wonder status vs. the biggest female MMA names. Now, with 40 approaching, the Jackson/Wink mainstay is in her twilight opposite surging Aldana and must prove age isn’t a factor.
Holm's latest outing became a power clinch and MMA IQ showcase to upend former title challenger Raquel Pennington by unanimous decision. That win proved only elite operators such as Amanda Nunes, Cyborg Santos and Valentina Shevchenko are competitively above Holm. Truly, this weekend brings interesting dynamic between the established entity and her hard-charging, younger opponent.
To gain another notch on her Zuffa belt, years of boxing experience must serve Holm's cause as she faces hard-hitting Aldana.
Irene Aldana
The 32-year-old volume striker erased previously unbeaten Ketlen Vieira from title contention last December behind a wicked right hand. Confident from her signature win, 'Robles' chases another statement to push toward a 6-1 Octagon run since January 2018.
Aldana's only loss during that time was a controversial split decision against common Holm opponent Pennington -the Chookigan defeat could've also gone either way.
Blessed with durability at 5'9, Aldana still throws behind a slight reach disadvantage vs. no. 2 ranked Holm. However, as neither woman grapples much, Saturday's five round main event looks like an on-paper kickboxing match. In that environment, Aldana holds the volume edge with 5.84 significant lands per minute with Holm coming back at 2.75 lands -it's worth noting Holm struggles vs. busier fighters.
Though, Holm owns eight KO's (her opponent six), and two of Aldana's five defeats come via stoppage. The only area where either side claims visible edge is Holm's championship experience: both combatants are tall, long and powerful.
That noted, it's hard to bet against Holm given how easily she controlled Pennington. Yet, in a pick-em scenario, I'll take fresher Aldana to land heavier leather through five rounds while being too physically strong for Holm to press against the cage. When separations occur, 'The Preacher's Daughter' will offer her usual feints while looking to time aggressive Aldana with a patented night-ender. In return, perhaps a bit quicker & less shop worn, Aldana will absorb Holm's best and earn judges' approval with the more dramatic strikes.
Overall, this likely title eliminator is among the top matchups this year. Going with conventional wisdom, I'll slot Irene Aldana with the gritty decision win based on the upper hand youth provides.
Winner: Irene Aldana by Decision
Odds courtesy of BestFightOdds