UFC on ESPN 24: Undercard Preview and Prediction Part 1
Ben Rothwell vs Phillipe Lins
The feature prelim belongs to the big boys on this one. Big Ben Rothwell (38-13-0) looks to get back in the win column. He was fairly active in 2019, fighting three times (losing the first two to Blagoy Ivanov, Andrei Arlovski but winning the third against Stefan Struve). In 2020, he beat Ovince St. Preux but then lost his most recent fight to Marcin Tybura. The UFC veteran made his debut way back in 2009 where he lost via TKO to Cain Velasquez. That was also the last time he was finished by strikes as the Wisconsin native has showcased incredible durability throughout his career.
Phillipe Lins (14-5-0) had a stint in Bellator before entering into the PFL’s heavyweight tournament in 2018. He ended up winning the tournament and pocketing a one million dollar cash prize. Two years later he made his UFC debut as the favorite against Andre Arlovski but the Pitbull spoiled the welcoming party. “Monstro” followed that loss up with another, this time to Tanner Boeser by KO.
Both fighters are orthodox and will have identical reach. Big Ben will most likely hold a size advantage as he routinely clocks in at the maximum heavyweight limit of 265. Lins was 234 last time out.
We probably know what we are going to get with both fighters. Lins will have a speed and cardio advantage, will predominantly box and periodically throw in some kicks. He won’t check kicks in return, won’t go for any takedowns and will throw combinations with fairly low accuracy. Ben is going to most likely press forward, square up and throw punches with not much in terms of defense. I fully expect Ben to win round 1. The problems may arise however if he doesn’t get the finish. The third round against Tybura was a disaster when Rothwell had nothing left in the tank.
I’m still going to lean toward him here to get the win. He’s knocked out great strikers in the past and submitted guys with great jiu-jitsu. Lins’ chin is questionable, he’s going to be incredibly undersized, and he hasn’t shown me much worth backing. It’s possible that he outpoints Rothwell for a close decision but my lean is for a big Ben KO.
Prediction: Ben Rothwell
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Phil Hawes vs Kyle Daukaus
Phil “Megatron” Hawes (10-2-0) is looking to extend his UFC unbeaten streak to 3 when he takes on fellow middleweight, Kyle Daukaus (10-1-0). Hawes made it to Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) back in 2017 but he was knocked out by Julian Marquez. He battled on the regional circuit in order to get another crack at DWCS. This time he came out victorious and got a UFC contract. He scored a KO victory in his debut over Jacob Malkoun and then followed that up with a close majority decision against Nassourdine Imavov in February.
Kyle Daukaus entered the UFC undefeated but had that O taken away in his debut against Brendan Allen. He rebounded from that unanimous decision loss by securing his own unanimous decision win over Dustin Stoltzfus this past November. Fun fact, he’s the younger brother of fellow UFC fighter, Chris Daukaus (HW).
The southpaw from Philli will have a 3 inch height advantage but will give up 1 inch of reach to Megatron.
Hawes faced a taller opponent in his last fight as well. He spammed leg kicks early to score points and then either ducked under Imavov’s rush to score double leg takedowns, or grinded him against the cage. The fight became incredibly close in the third round however when Imavov connected enough to wobble Hawes. With Daukaus being a southpaw, those same leg kicks that Hawes likes to rack up won’t be there. And if Hawes does throw them too often, he risks overextending himself and giving away counter opportunities. Daukaus’ striking looked very crisp in his last fight and I expect him to have that edge here. Hawes normally has huge athletic advantages over his opponents and that won’t be as big of a factor here with Daukaus being such a big middleweight. Hawes division 1 wrestling credentials may also play right into Daukaus’ submission skills (8 of his 10 wins were by submission) when these two middleweights find themselves on the mat. I like Daukaus’ chances in this one but I expect improvements and good showings from both guys.