UFC on ESPN 25 - Betting Guide - 6/19/21
My picks in bold and all odds provided by www.bestfightodds.com
Chan Sung Jung (+103) vs. Dan Ige (-126)
I like Ige to get it done here. I scooped him up above even money but I’d say he has value all the way down to where he currently sits. His durability is top notch, he hits hard (that Tucker KO was super impressive), seems to be improving his technical striking, and has a top notch BBJ game (although he rarely has to use it). Jung just got badly outclassed by Ortega and has been finished brutally several times. With 5 rounds to work, it gives Ige ample opportunity to catch him. If it reaches the final bell then it is probably a very close fight but if it doesn't, only one guy will be getting finished here and it won't be our boy, Ige. I'm taking the moneyline.
Aleksei Oleinik (+185) vs. Sergey Spivak (-230)
This one is tougher to call than the odds suggest. Spivak is a fairly relentless grappler which is probably the worst way to go about fighting a Jiu Jitsu ace like Oleinik. Even though Oleinik has been getting finished a lot lately, the last fight with Daukaus ended more with volume so he wasn’t put out badly. The troubling part for me was Oleinik looked gassed after just 1 minute of fairly light activity. I wouldn’t blame anyone for rolling the dice and playing Oleinik by submission in this one as he definitely has value. I just don't feel terribly confident that he remains dangerous over the long haul so I’m going to side with Spivak. He’ll probably have 20 pounds on his opponent, almost 20 years younger, and a way better gas tank. First couple minutes should be dicey but I’ll lean towards Spivak for the pick but passing on the bet.
Marlon Vera (-207) vs. Davey Grant (+170)
This is a rematch from 2016 and honestly I’m not mad at the matchmaking. Both guys are sort of in a different place in their careers now and the last fight was great. Vera is as tough and as durable as they come. He’s also improved a lot technically since that first fight. I cannot see Grant getting the finish but I do see him getting the win here. Vera’s last fight against Aldo saw him not really do much besides cover up high and try to clinch up periodically. We saw Grant punish that exact type of guard with body shots against Martinez last time out. These odds opened around +275 and -325 which was ludicrous. Grant winning by decision is around +465 on some sites and I’ll take that all day.
Julian Erosa (+135) vs. Seung Woo Choi (-155)
The classic veteran vs prospect match up here. Two tall featherweights at 6’1 and 6’0. This is Erosa’s second stint in the UFC actually. His return so far has yielded two victories by finish. He out brawled a wildman in Nate Landwehr recently, before that he had to contend with the incredibly awkward Sean Woodson in an absolutely crazy fight. He gets a more standard striker match up in Choi for this one. I say standard but Choi is a world class Muay Thai fighter, he’s just not the crazy stylistic match ups of Erosa’s previous two opponents. I’ve just watched a pile of past fights from both guys and I’ll admit this fight is a tough one to get a read on, Erosa is ridiculously hittable so I think Choi’s edge in the technical should piece him up for a comfortable decision. The issue is Erosa turned into the terminator last fight and marched forward at all costs. I’m not sure if Choi is going to be as savvy constantly on the back foot. He’s shown to have improved some gaps in his takedown defense recently so it seems like the whole thing will play out on the feet. Going to ultimately side with Choi to get ahead on the scores cards but won’t be betting it or surprised if Erosa finds a way to take over late.
Wellington Turman (+107) vs. Bruno Silva (-130)
Bruno Silva’s making his debut after sitting out a couple years from a failed drug test. Before that he was knocking out a bunch of subpar competition in M-1. There’s no doubt he’s powerful and athletic as hell (the juice will do that for ya) but it’s unclear if that will remain the case after his layoff and presumably clean blood stream. Even as a lesser version of himself, I’ll give him the edge to take out Turman since he throws consistently enough to connect eventually. Turman getting blasted by Sanchez did not instill a lot of confidence for sure. It’s a shame because the path to victory is right there in the grappling for Turman but he keeps things on the feet long enough to get into trouble. Silva by KO at +200 is worth a light sprinkle.
Matt Brown (+145) vs. Dhiego Lima (-176)
Lima sort of goes against the welterweight meta game with a low output, counter striking fight style. It’s gotten him a lot of split decisions as well as into takedown trouble with his tendency to back up to the cage. If he doesn’t get the finish, it’s never a good look. You know what else isn’t a good look? Fighting into your 40’s in the welterweight division. Brown is a very long time UFC veteran who makes the walk for the 28th time. He went up against Carlos Condit most recently but don’t let the 30-27 score of this fight fool you, there were many moments that belonged to Brown throughout. He still has powerful elbows and good ground control. The cardio issue that has reared its head in the past shouldn’t be a huge factor here since Lima fights at such a slow, measured pace. I was really hoping he’d be in that +230 range which would give his ground control angle some value. It still seems likely that Lima is going to catch him with one of these counter lefts at some point. Will pass on the bet but will take Lima to retire the legend :(
Aleksa Camur (-247) vs. Nicolae Negumereanu (+197)
Kanako Murata (+115) vs. Virna Jandiroba (-135)
Khaos Williams (-155) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (+135)
Josh Parisian (-137) vs. Roque Martinez (+112)
Joaquim Silva (-133) vs. Rick Glenn (+109)
Casey O'Neill (+140) vs. Lara Procópio (-160)
For the undercard I’m going to bet Murata. She’s a beast and has beaten Jiu Jitsu aces before. Won’t be going too heavy on it as there’s nothing more stressful than watching your fighter defend submission attempts in between ground and pound for 15. Going to take the moneyline as there isn’t much value in the added decision prop here.
Grant by Decision
Bruno Silva by KO