UFC on ESPN+ 46 - Betting Guide 5/22/21
Last Card Recap
Well we actually completely passed on betting the last card due to Houston commission shenanigans. The fighters took it out of the judges hands more times than not which was good. On picks we went 7-5 but it could have easily went 9-3. The Vannata/Grundy fight was scored 30-27 for each fighter which is always a bad sign and somehow a judge gave Chookagian a round that she was mounted in and nearly tapped.
Let's look at tonight's card.
Rob Font (-113) vs. Cody Garbrandt (-109)
Yan Xiaonan (-126) vs. Carla Esparza (+103)
Justin Tafa (-184) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+152)
Felicia Spencer (-183) vs. Norma Dumont Viana (+152)
David Dvořák (-119) vs. Raulian Paiva (+144)
Jack Hermansson (-157) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+129)
Ricardo Ramos (+101) vs. Bill Algeo (-124)
Ben Rothwell (-346) vs. Chris Barnett (+268)
Court McGee (-113) vs. Cláudio Silva (-109)
Bruno Gustavo da Silva (-357) vs. Victor Rodriguez (+276)
Josh Culibao (-264) vs. Sha Yilan (+211)
Damir Hadžović (-137) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+107)
Rafael Alves (+416) vs. Damir Ismagulov (-583)
All odds are mean odds provided bywww.bestfightodds.com
My picks in bold
I feel a lot better about betting this card than the last card so let's dive into it. I go over in detail the match up between our main event fighters here. You can have a look if you are on the fence or just want some additional info on both guys. I actually like the prop bet of Font by KO/TKO here for a few reasons: it's very likely to play out entirely on the feet, Garbrandt has shown a questionable chin, Font hits hard, he has 25 minutes at which to work, and the price is sitting around +177 which is pretty good.
I also took a deeper dive into the co main event, which can be found here.I picked the underdog but this one is a great deal more risky. The large number of split decisions Esparza has been experiencing lately is worrisome and I feel this is going to be a close one. If you scooped Esparza up when she opened at +155 then great work cause there's lots of value there on this coin flip fight. I may be simply not sold on Xiaonan's hype but even at even money I'll take Esparza here.
I'm taking Vanderaa for this one but both guys are pretty rough around the edges. Tafa has a good body kick and it's going to be readily available in this southpaw vs orthodox matchup. But he hasn't really shown me much else and is pretty inexperienced with only 6 fights on his record. No real confidence in either guy but the odds are definitely wide here so purely a value play. Vanderaa winning by decision is at +500 as well.
Spencer only ever lost to Cyborg and Nunes. And she was never finished so Dumont would need to point fight her way to a decision. Not impossible, but it's far more likely that Spencer clinches up throughout the fight and imposes her size advantage to control things. If Dumont has somehow become a grappling ace during training and comes out and stiffles Spencer's attempts then I'll eat this one. Otherwise, I feel it's a pretty safe parlay padder.
Going to stay away from Hermansson/Shahbazyan. Great fight for sure that could end up being back and forth. I'd say Hermansson survives the early dangerous form of Shahbazyan and then grinds him down but it could be close.
I gave some general thoughts on all of the prelim fights here. I feel most of the big favorites are going to get it done. If you wanted to beef up a single bet by tacking on Culibao, I think he's a safe play. Ismagulov should certainly run over Alves but going to leave that one at that price.
I do like Ramos to get on Algeo's back early. He has a good chance of getting the submission since we saw Algeo giving up his back so readily in his last fight. If Ramos doesn't get the sub then he will certainly win the round in the eyes of the judges. If it get's past that first round though, we could see Algeo having significantly more success. Even money for the win or +500 for the submission both have some value. I wouldn't go big on it though, Algeo is tough as hell and is a 6 foot featherweight, the entire play relies around the back take.
I picked Medeiros but who knows what version shows up. Easy pass.
Font (-113) or by TKO/KO (+177)
Ramos (+101) or by submission (+500)
Vanderaa (+152) or by decision (+500)
Esparza (+103) or by decison (+160)