UFC on ESPN+ 47 - Betting Guide 6/5/21
Last Card Recap
We had a good one in terms of picks and profit last week going 10-2. One of our losses was Spencer which unfortunately stopped the parlay in it's tracks. But Esparza, Font, Ramos and Vanderaa all came though for a great night. If you went the prop route, only 1/4 but the one that came in was 5 to 1. Let's have a look at tonight's card.
I'm a big believer in analysts and handicappers being up front about the amount of research they do when recommending picks. So although I was able to do all of my early vetting research on these fights, I was only able to complete my deep dive into the matches that I plan on betting. Life completely got in the way in the form of my kid's birthday sleepover party taking over my rec room/research area. Even writing this now, they are all passed out around me in the form of severe sugar crash/pizza comas.
Luckily, every fighter made weight so there will be some plays tonight.
All odds are mean odds provided by www.bestfightodds.com
My picks inbold.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai
Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura
Roman Dolidze vs. Laureano Staropoli
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza
Duško Todorović vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Tom Breese vs. Antonio Arroyo
Let's go down the line for each of these.
The main event is a very tough one to call. We have a high volume heavyweight who is hittable in the form of Augusto Sakai vs a low output counterpuncher in Rozenstruik. In a 3 round fight I'd feel much better about picking and even betting Sakai as his volume and durability would have a high likelihood of getting him the W. With the extra time and Rozenstruik's powerful counter punching it is a bit of a toss up. I picked Gane last time out against Rozenstruik as I knew his footwork was going to give Rozenstruik fits. Sakai certainly doesn't possess that footwork. But nevertheless I'm slightly leaning his way. Rozenstruik is just so damn one dimensional and has never really impressed me. If Sakai decides to clinch up he could also easily get this fight to the ground. Rozenstruik needs the finish to win because his low output is not going to sway the judges.
In the co main we have an intriguing one. Harris comes out hard in the first few minutes of every fight and has such a good chance at ending his opponents by throwing everything at them. Tybura's striking defense has improved drastically and has shown he considerably increased his fight IQ. Rather than take unneccessary risk and bet one of these guys straight up, there might be a sneakier angle. I fully expect Harris to take round 1, either by brutal finish or just outstrike his opponent. If Tybura survives that round however, the live betting odds will swing wildly toward Harris at which case Tybura's value is going to go up. Harris has shown he has no gas tank and Tybura has actually done this to a few fighters now, having them gas out in round 1 before grinding them down for wide round 2 and 3 victories.
Next up is a fight I feel there is value on the underdog. I'm going to take Staropoli to beat Dolidze. There will be a size disadvantage for sure but I don't think it will be a huge factor. Staropoli is just way better than Dolidze on the feet and has shown he can get things back to standing if he does get taken down. Dolidze has just done nothing that impressed me. His one step up in competition against Giles (another fight he had a size advantage) saw the hype train ended. Staropoli has been fighting way stiffer competition. Also, Dolidze opened as the underdog (where he should be) and then had a very steep change from +130 to -155 immediately. That Georgian money coming in hot I guess. I feel fine about betting Staropoli.
I was very high on the Ponz bandwagon before he got put out by Jingliang. That was not a good look for him. I'm honestly not too sure how this one will go so going to stay away from it. I feel like Baeza is going to circle and lull Ponzinibbio into chasing him around. And then he's going to eat a big left hook and get sent to the shadowrealm again.
Next fight is another one I feel good about betting the underdog. Todorovic got smashed all over the place in his last fight. He employs one of these head movement strategies where he backs straight up and away. You have to be elite to get away with this strategy consistently. Tudorovic is not. Rodrigues has power and I think he's going to connect early to lock it up. This was one I got early on the line at +150 but even at +109, I like it.
Finally, there's no real value in betting Breese at -240. Easy pass.
Montana De La Rosa vs. Ariane Lipski
Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Muslim Salikhov
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Kamuela Kirk
Alan Patrick vs. Mason Jones
Manon Fiorot vs. Tabatha Ricci
Sean Woodson vs. Youssef Zalal
Claudio Puelles vs. Jordan Leavitt
Let's go down the line again with a few notes on each fight.
I've been burned by both these ladies underperforming in the past. Lipski had so much potential and honestly this seems like a bad match. De La Rosa is no world beater but she is significantly better than Lipski on the ground. And even though her method of getting fights to the ground is terrible, Lipski's take down defense is pretty atrocious at 45%. If betting this fight for value, you'd almost have to take Lipski by finish and I just don't like it.
Next one we actually have some value on the favorite here in Tanner Boser at -160. Boser will have slight height and reach advantages over Latifi and I suspect will win a wide decision. Latifi just really should be fighting at light heavyweight. He's lost his last 3 fights and his main avenue of victory here is going up against Boser's 100% takedown defense.
Next one should be fun to watch as Salikhov always throws exciting spinning $#%@. Trinaldo has the tendancy to sit and wait a bit too long which should allow Salikhov to land some of these round stealing blows. I also think Trinaldo's best days may be behind him. If he comes out and presses though in that first round then the small cage may really benefit him. Still, going to have to see that first before taking that risk.
I do think that Amirkhani is the better fighter than Kirk in the majority of MMA categories. However, Amirkhani's gas tank is so damn suspect that these advantages could be tossed out the window if he slows way down.
Mason Jones should destroy Alan Patrick but unfortunately the bookies are also well aware.
I had Fiorot to defeat Moroz but then her opponent got changed to Tabatha Ricci. I haven't seen any tape on Ricci so can't do anything here. Fiorot is now the largest favorite on the card.
Zalal has been incredibly disappointing. Still, he's at that age and experience where we could see a marked improvement in between fights and then all of a sudden he lives up to potential. I like Woodsen to win this but it could end up being a close fight. Don't feel like putting my money on split decision territory.
You often see the bookies and even analysts overvaluing A) undefeated fighters and B) contender series winners. Leavitt fits the bill on both but he should defeat Puelles comfortably. I don't quite love the price on the favorite enough but I'm going to pair him with Mason Jones to get it over the hump.
Sorry for the length of this one folks but wanted to give some extra info since I didn't have the time for full write ups this week. Enjoy the fights!
Boser by decision (+200)